Can the US actually destroy Iran’s Fordow base?

Now that the US president has indicated he’ll allow another two weeks for negotiations with Iran to continue, we can also reflect a little more on some of the underlying assumptions at play: eg, can the US actually punch through Iran’s Fordow mountain?

So with thanks to an anonymous Intriguer, we connected with one of the few folks in the world who might actually know the answer, given his years as a senior US targeting professional in (eg) the fight against ISIS — Wes J. Bryant. Here are some excerpts from our exchange with Wes (who says he does not support US strikes in this context):

• Using Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) is “not a viable strategy if we’re talking about complete destruction of the facility. Unless maybe we use every MOP in inventory… and it becomes a bit of a spray and pray strategy.”
• But “we could feasibly neutralize its capability at least temporarily and prevent use of the facility for X amount of time, and at the same time produce the desired psychological effect on the enemy.”
• “We could even do escalation – just hit one entrance, see if that brings Iran to the table in regard to their nuclear program”.
• “Daisy chaining 2-3 bombs each on the same points of impact but set at different depths of detonation is the most likely application targeteers would pursue to cause the most damage to the site (if logistics permit).”
• Wes also noted, “intel is not always complete. So, for any of us to assume we actually have the full picture of this facility might be naïve. Even on the classified side. And… the application of this to the Fordo site really would be a bit of luck mixed with physics, and I imagine that the targeteers planning this, as well as our munitions effects analysts and engineers, are all wondering the same things.”

Thanks Wes for sharing your insights with the Intrigue community 🙏