Tightening his tie, Istanbul’s popular mayor and national opposition rising star, Ekrem İmamoğlu, filmed a message for social media as police crowded outside his residence earlier this morning (Wednesday).
“We are faced with great tyranny. But I want you to know that I will not give up”, İmamoğlu says. It’s 7am in the city of seven hills and the mayor is being taken away by his own police.
State-owned media Anadolu Ajansı reports that authorities issued arrest warrants for 106 people as part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terror links with Kurdish groups. Other detainees include a close aide to the mayor and a leading journalist.
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Intriguingly, the move comes less than a day after Istanbul University annulled İmamoğlu’s degree (a requirement to run for president), and just days before the 53-year old was poised to snag the 2028 presidential candidacy for his party.
İmamoğlu is widely regarded as the top political challenger to President Erdoğan, who’s been in power since 2003 and was also once mayor of Istanbul.
The chair of İmamoğlu’s party has been quick to condemn his arrest, calling it “a coup attempt on our next president.” Ditto the mayor of Ankara, Turkey’s capital.
And while more opposition statements have rolled in, Turkey’s markets have now plunged on opening and the lira has dropped as much as 12% to new historic lows against the dollar. Turkey’s Borsa didn’t do much better, down 6% as the day got underway.
Mehmet Şimşek, the country’s Wall Street darling of a finance minister, tried to calm markets with a tweet, promising “everything necessary for the healthy functioning of the markets is being done.” But investors continued their sell off in response to what the world is interpreting as a power grab by the president.
Locals see it as both a) a response to İmamoğlu’s crushing win in last year’s mayoral elections against Erdoğan’s hand-picked candidate, and b) a continuation of a broader national crackdown on Turkey’s opposition, including the detention of opposition mayors subsequently replaced with state appointees.
Still, Mayor İmamoğlu is no stranger to this pressure. Since first winning the mayoral seat in 2019 and ousting Erdoğan’s party after 25 years leading the mega-city, authorities have sentenced İmamoğlu to prison and a potential ban from politics over charges of insulting Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (he’s appealing).
And zooming out a little, his latest arrest comes at a time when Turkey’s role in the world is shifting. Erdoğan has been thriving in our new multipolar world, expanding his influence over Syria, East Africa, and even Russia, while Europe warms to Turkey’s ability to provide much-needed options around arms and energy.
Anyway, focus will now shift to Europe’s reaction to this news as Erdoğan is set to attend a key summit in Brussels tomorrow (Thursday). Meanwhile, back home, there’s now a four-day ban on demonstrations in Istanbul and there’ve been reports of restrictions around social media.
