Fourth time’s the charm?

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu just wrapped his fourth trip to Washington since President Trump returned to the White House, a frequency no other foreign leader has matched.

But was this time any different? Well, yes and no.

On the ‘yes’ front, of course, there’s the fact Trump just rolled out a 20-point Gaza peace plan standing side-by-side with Bibi. The plan basically involves…

• An immediate ceasefire once Hamas agrees
• Hamas to return all hostages (dead and alive) within 72 hours
• Israel to release 250 Palestinians on life sentences, and ~1,700 more detainees
• Israel to gradually withdraw from Gaza, handing over to…
• A new International Stabilization Force (ISF) with Arab and other partners, plus
• A technocratic Palestinian committee that’ll initially run Gaza, while…
• An economic development plan guides the reconstruction phase, until…
• The Palestinian Authority has reformed enough to take over in Gaza, while
• Full aid deliveries resume (with no Israeli or Hamas involvement), and
• Hamas is excluded, with amnesty for any members who disarm or depart.

The plan also stipulates that a) nobody gets forced to leave Gaza, b) Israel won’t occupy the strip (though keeps its security buffers), and c) there’ll be a new interfaith dialogue.

Plus it all plays out under a Board of Peace chaired by Trump himself, with other names also in the mix (like Tony Blair, who led the UK into the 2003 US invasion of Iraq).

So okay… we said ‘yes and no’ when pondering whether Bibi’s fourth DC visit was any different. With the ‘yes’ bit now out of the way, what about the ‘no’?

Well… we’ve arguably been here before in a few different ways.

First, this deal has some similarities to the one President Biden put to Bibi last June (though Trump’s timeline is tighter, his Hamas exclusion is clearer, and his international oversight emphasis is heavier, for example).

Second, neither Israel nor Hamas ever really accepted Biden’s deal (Hamas wanted changes, and Bibi wanted to defeat Hamas first). This time? Sure, Bibi is onboard — but the more hardline members of his shaky coalition have criticised the deal. As for Hamas? There’s a strong chance it’ll again insert enough caveats for any ‘yes’ to effectively mean ‘no’. And yet, interestingly…

Third, Trump’s plan says even if Hamas delays or demurs, the plan is happening anyway (including the aid), though just in zones outside Hamas control. And that seems an attempt to sidestep then squeeze Hamas, especially if locals end up leaving the remaining pockets of Hamas rule (still at war with Israel), and heading over to whatever new international/technocratic administration takes shape elsewhere in Gaza.

So… will it work?

Sometimes you need big curveballs to shake a stubborn status quo, but given the misery of the last few years, it’s hard to be optimistic — even for stubborn optimists like us.

Intrigue’s Take

Maybe this plan gets Trump his Nobel Prize. Or maybe it adds him to history’s long list of Middle East peace plans that’ve all promised a breakthrough, only to stumble over the same entrenched distrust (whether via more settlements, terrorist attacks, or beyond).

Sure, there are reasons for hope: might the presence of Arab-led peacekeepers be enough to slow the cycle of violence? And might a reformed Palestinian Authority be able to thread that elusive needle of both international and domestic legitimacy?

But there are also real reasons for caution: while the Palestinian Authority has now welcomed the plan, Palestinians themselves don’t seem to have had a role in developing it. And details remain unclear, like who’ll actually contribute to this new international force.

So it’s a big gamble, but it’s hard to see any better deal emerging right now, either.

Sound even smarter:

• The foreign ministers of Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have all jointly welcomed Trump’s deal. Other early backers include India, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, the UK, and more.
• Trump also mentioned that several European leaders (like France’s Macron) played a role in developing this plan.