Hamas and Israel accept peace plan

Now that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza overnight, it’s worth a quick reflection on five ways this war has re-shaped our world, starting with…

1. A humanitarian crisis

Much as we foreshadowed, the world has now spent two years watching in high-def as Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks levelled Gaza, left tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, an estimated $50B reconstruction bill, and a generation traumatised.

Israelis continue to grieve over the Hamas rampage, the ongoing hostage ordeal, the loss of several hundred troops, plus some big hits to…

2. Israel’s global standing

Hamas always hoped Israeli overreach might trigger a broader war that’d annihilate the Jewish state. Instead, Israel got isolated as the war dragged on: we’re talking UN resolutions, plus countries cutting ties, expelling Israeli ambassadors, and suspending arms sales, while the Saudis paused historic normalisation talks. Even Israel’s closest friends have shifted, with US public sentiment now polling at record lows.

Yet somehow, even all that potentially pales in comparison to…

3. Historic court cases

South Africa’s genocide claims before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) are particularly egregious for Israel, not only because the founding Hamas charter laid bare the group’s own genocidal intent, but because the term ‘genocide’ was itself first coined by Jewish lawyer Raphael Lemkin to describe the Nazi extermination campaigns that killed millions of Jews and others. We’d be surprised if the ICJ hands down its ruling before 2027, but many have already made up their minds given the Gaza devastation, and damning findings from a UN inquiry.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has arrest warrants out for Israel’s Netanyahu and former defence minister (plus two Hamas masterminds who’re now dead). And while many major powers don’t recognise the ICC (think the US, India, China, Russia), and even some ICC members are ignoring the warrants (eg Hungary), ~125 others are still obliged to arrest Bibi if he visits. That not only hits his legacy, but constricts his movement.

Still, it’s clearly not just losses for Netanyahu, who has somehow managed to improve…

4. Israel’s regional balance of power

Defying all expectations, Israel managed multiple wars at once, not only defanging Hamas, but also Hezbollah, the Houthis, and even their Iranian backers, who’ve been left embarrassed at home and diminished abroad. So if the Hamas attacks punctured Israel’s deterrence, its response has now restored it.

And yet, while Israel’s regional balance got stronger…

5. The West got more divided

This war has rocked (via protests) virtually every major Western city, shaped every Western election, and divided every Western society in ways that (say) Putin’s invasion, Sudan’s atrocities, and Congo’s bloodshed have not. And that division — fanned by authoritarian foes — is playing out everywhere: even Eurovision 2026 is teetering as some countries pledge to boycott if Israel is included, while others (like host nation Austria) have suggested they could boycott the event if Israel is excluded.

Anyway, let’s end on a bright note, shall we? Two years on, the bombs might soon stop falling, and the hostages might soon be home. This might be a time for peace.

Intrigue’s Take

The biggest question right now, however, is whether this peace even holds, and we have our doubts given so many details are still TBC: will Hamas disarm, let alone disband? And who’s going to volunteer troops for a stabilisation force in Gaza?

That in turn points to the broader question hovering above it all: even if this peace holds, will it finally usher in a viable two-state solution and lay the foundation for a durable Middle East peace? The actual text of Trump’s plan merely muses that, after several other milestones are met, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood“.

That’s a classic rhetorical contortion we saw all the time on the inside, and is likely the product of negotiators trying to sound as optimistic as possible without breaching Bibi’s lines: barely two weeks ago, the Israeli leader responded to a slew of Western recognitions at the UN, vowing “there will never be a Palestinian state.“

And speaking of Bibi, the end of this war revives some big headaches for him at home, including his ongoing corruption trial, inevitable accountability for Israel’s own intelligence and security lapses, and big elections due this time next year.

As for Hamas accountability? The original Gaza architects of the attack are all dead, and Trump’s plan offers amnesty for others willing to lay down their arms. But something tells us this won’t apply to the ~nine other original Hamas politburo members, all still in hiding.

Sound even smarter:

• Netanyahu’s office just announced that offensive operations in Gaza have now stopped. Israel’s Arabic-language military spokesperson has warned Gazans to await instructions before returning to Gaza City.
• The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize gets announced tomorrow (Friday) from ~5am ET.