Is Sudan’s civil war at a turning point? 

Usually when we land at an airport, we ditch that flight mode, check what memes we missed, then shake our head disapprovingly when other passengers defy the captain and stand up before the little ‘bing’ seatbelt noise.

But not Sudan’s General al-Burhan. When he landed at Khartoum’s international airport on Wednesday, he stepped out of his chopper, kissed the ground, and raised his fist. 

Why? His Sudanese armed forces had just recaptured that airport hours earlier from a rival militia known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after nearly two years of civil war.

The military and RSF used to be friends — the RSF emerged under Sudan’s ex-dictator (al-Bashir), out of groups that helped him terrorise Darfur during its 2000s rebellion.

By the time a popular uprising ousted Bashir in 2019, the military and RSF were frenemies, jointly toppling Sudan’s transition authority then signing an uneasy power-sharing pact.

But that imploded spectacularly in 2023, triggering a civil war that’s now left tens of thousands dead and more than 14 million (aka a Pennsylvania) displaced. All while the RSF likely committed genocide (again), with both sides also facing war crime allegations.

But this week could be a turning point. 

While the RSF initially had the upper-hand, the military has now just about retaken the seat of Sudanese power and one of Africa’s biggest cities — that’s a big symbolic and strategic victory, with the international airport (though damaged) a real military asset. 

But maybe more importantly, this triumph will also shape the calculations of all the outside players still competing for influence inside Sudan:

1. 🇦🇪 The Emiratis

While the UAE denies any role, there’s evidence suggesting it’s been sending weapons and other support to the RSF. The Gulf monarchy values Sudan’s a) mineral and agricultural wealth, and b) strategic location along the Red Sea.

But it’s also wary of its own regional frenemies getting too much influence in Sudan, like…

2. 🇸🇦 The Saudis

The Emiratis and Saudis have (with the Egyptians) been pretty tight the past decade, with shared goals to curb the influence of Iran and certain strains of political Islam, for example.

But lately, there’s been legit rivalry between them: they’re in open competition for hub status, they clash directly in OPEC, and now they back opposing sides in Sudan.

Plus, in addition to distrusting one another, they also distrust…

3. 🇪🇬 The Egyptians 

Egypt is right next door to Sudan and has taken in ~800,000 refugees, so has a natural interest in ending this war — it’s led some of the diplomatic pushes accordingly.

But there’s more: President el-Sisi (a former general) is close with Sudan’s military, and he’s loathe to lose that influence to the Saudis (with whom he has a border dispute) or the Emiratis (who’ve gotten cosy with Egypt’s Ethiopian neighbours despite a Nile dispute).

So there’ve been reports Egypt has helped out Sudan’s army including by providing drones from Turkey (which likewise competes with the Emiratis and Saudis). 

 Still with us on this international chessboard? Good, because there’s also…

4. 🇷🇺 The Russians 

Their rebadged Wagner mercenaries have long helped the RSF, with surface-to-air missiles, training, and even personnel. In return, Moscow gets access to Sudan’s gold.

Of course, that Russian presence then attracted Ukrainian special forces, who helped Sudan’s military run covert operations against the Russians. But it’s unclear how strong the Russian footprint still is at this stage.

Anyway, with so many players, you can see why Sudan’s peace has been so elusive.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

As grimly intriguing as that chessboard above might appear, does it matter to the rest of the world? Sure. Beyond the stain on our collective conscience, here are two impacts:

• When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilised global wheat supplies, there were hopes Sudan’s vast agricultural potential could help cushion the blow. But Sudan’s own subsequent war soon left that idea a pipe-dream; and
• Sudan is also a top-ten gold producer, though most of that supply is controlled by the RSF, which has previously managed to offload it out via Emirati friends and onto global markets. So you might be wearing conflict gold.

By the way, does any of the above sound familiar? Yep, Intriguers will see echoes of the proxy games also playing out in Syria and the DR Congo. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum.

Also worth noting:

• The International Criminal Court issued warrants for the arrest of former dictator al-Bashir in 2009 and 2010, for genocide and crimes against humanity.
• Sudan’s military has held al-Bashir (81) in detention since his ouster. Authorities transferred him to a medical facility in Sudan’s north last year.