WASHINGTON — President Trump has just kicked off his first official trip abroad (RIP Pope Francis), with pitstops in Riyadh on Tuesday, Doha on Wednesday, and Abu Dhabi on Thursday.
Turkey’s President Erdogan might also be ironing the bedsheets, as Trump has flagged the possibility of swinging past Istanbul if the Russia-Ukraine talks proceed.
Meanwhile, if Israel starred in an award-winning but commercially underperforming drama starring Diane Keaton, it might now forlornly be blowing out candles and scraping its prepared meal into Tupperware, because Trump isn’t visiting. There are rumours it’s due to Trump-Netanyahu tensions over how to approach Iran and the Houthis, plus Israel is unlikely to offer the same splashy headline potential (absent any Gaza ceasefire deal).
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Anyway, here’s what to look for at each stop —
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
The last time Trump was in town (2017), the Saudis pledged to buy $110B in US arms. Most of that never actually eventuated (ditto under a similar Obama-era offer), but it was a sexy headline, and now there’s talk of making the headlines even sexier with numbers like $1T (Saudi’s entire GDP). But let’s focus less on the numbers, and more on the issues:
- Nuclear tech. There’s speculation Trump might announce a civil nuclear deal, which the Saudis want because a) regional rivals Iran and the Emiratis are already nuclear, and b) it’s on-brand for the Saudi pivot away from its petrostate roots. Intriguingly, there are also reports Trump might now ditch the US requirement for the Saudis to recognise Israel before getting US nuclear tech. Why…?
- Competition. The Saudis just signed a vague nuclear deal with China, in what looked a lot like a flex aimed at the US: “we have options”. So with the Israel-Hamas war leaving Saudi recognition unlikely, Trump is likely charging ahead to carve out deals for US nuclear firms and associated US leverage in the region, while nudging US allies to counter Iran themselves.
🇶🇦 Qatar
- Jets. Doha is offering a luxury 747 until Boeing’s delayed new Air Force One arrives in 2029. And ethics aside, national security circles are buzzing over a) surely it’s bugged b) maybe it’s remote controlled, and c) what do the Qataris want in return for this half a billion dollar flying palace? White House lawyers say it’s a gift to the Pentagon (not Trump), and is not conditional on any official act.
- Hostages. Long side-lined for its Hamas links, Qatar has now become a critical conduit for Hamas negotiations, including the terrorist group’s latest release of US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander after 580 days. That’s a timely win for Trump.
- Syria. The Qataris and Saudis also just paid off Syria’s World Bank debt, and Trump is now hinting he could ease US sanctions, too (essential for anyone to do business there). Both the Qataris and Saudis will likely raise this with Trump, as they see a thriving Syria as a) good for regional security and b) good for business.
🇦🇪 UAE
- $1.4 trillion. That’s how much the Emiratis have already pledged to invest in the US over the next decade. Meanwhile, Trump 2.0 has since lifted Biden’s pause on UAE arms sales (due to Yemen war concerns), but the Emiratis will also want Trump to unwind Biden’s curbs on accessing advanced US chips and AI (word is this is indeed in the works).
- Crypto. This one isn’t on the official agenda, but it’d be weird for the Emiratis to close a $2B deal with a guy one week, then not mention it to his dad the next.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It’s no surprise Trump 2.0 is again making his first international trip to the Middle East, particularly given it plays so neatly to his brand: big transactional headlines and spectacular red carpets, rather than (say) lectures on human rights.
But he can’t ctrl-c → ctrl-v this visit, because the region and the world have changed a lot since 2017. The Saudis have spent a trillion or two on modernisation and diversification efforts, the Qataris have hosted a FIFA World Cup, and the Emiratis have chaired a successful UN climate summit.
So they’re more confident, and less hesitant to chase what they want, whether that’s the Saudis signing massive oil deals with Beijing or brutally murdering a US-based journalist; or the Emiratis rolling out the red carpet for a warmonger like Putin; or the Qataris hosting the political bureaus for groups like the Taliban and Hamas.
And to boot, our world is also now way more multipolar, meaning if these Gulf states don’t get what they want out of Trump, they’ve got no shortage of other cards to play.
Also worth noting
- OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Citi’s Jane Fraser, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Blackrock’s Larry Fink are also due in Riyadh today for the US-Saudi Investment Forum.
