Macron does Morocco

Who should pop up in Morocco’s parliament yesterday (Tuesday) but Emmanuel Macron, the president of France.

Why?

Sure, there are a few routine reasons which diplomats will have sprinkled through the talking points: Morocco is France’s top investment destination in Africa; France is Morocco’s number one trade partner; plus they work together on issues like climate change. We felt warm and fuzzy just typing that.

But a big part of this visit is really a juicy quid pro quo: Macron sees Morocco as an increasingly vulnerable irregular migration route from North Africa up into France, where migration has become a key concern for voters — and that’s benefiting Macron’s right-leaning political rivals like Marine Le Pen, who promise a tougher stance.

To make things trickier, French-Moroccan ties have been rocky lately: the Moroccans angrily denied 2021 accusations they were eavesdropping on Macron’s phone, then suspended ties after Macron slashed visas, and even refused French aid after last year’s huge earthquake.

But Macron and others in Europe are coming around to the view that stemming the flow of undocumented migrants is tough without the help of powers on the other side of the Mediterranean. So that’s Macron’s quid. What ‘quo’ does Morocco’s King Mohammed VI want in return? 

Well, President Macron helpfully listed it all out in his 40-minute address, including:

• A promise of €10B in investments (including more French high speed rail)
• Help for Rabat’s 2030 FIFA World Cup co-hosting duties, and
• A coveted invite for the king to visit Macron at the Élysée next year, to mark 70 years since the king’s grandfather co-signed Morocco’s independence declaration.

But really the big ticket item was the one that got Macron a standing ovation:

• “For France, Western Sahara’s present and future fall under Morocco’s sovereignty.“

Why such a big deal? Western Sahara is a disputed, strategically located territory the size of New Zealand along Africa’s Atlantic coast. The UN considers it a “non-self-governing territory”, which gives you a sense how tricky its status is.

As colonial powers like France and Spain withdrew from North Africa, neighbours like Morocco and Mauritania laid claims over the turf, while a local Polisario Front movement (backed by Algeria and Libya) fought to establish an independent Sahrawi Republic. Then, the UN brokered a ceasefire in 1991.

Things simmered along for decades, and several Arab and African countries established consulates in the disputed territory, kinda formalising its very odd status quo. But then came the US-led Abraham Accords, aimed at normalising Israel’s place in the Middle East. And guess what Morocco wanted from the US in return for recognising Israel? Yes, Morocco wanted the US to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.

So the US duly obliged in 2020, infuriating Morocco’s neighbour and rival Algeria, which wanted an independent Sahrawi Republic under its own influence. But dozens more have now variously followed the US, including Spain in 2022 and then Macron earlier this year.

And now this week, Macron has ratified his pivot in a joint declaration with Morocco’s king. As for his requests on migration? Macron told Morocco’s parliament, “many French people have high expectations on this. We need more results.“

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

For years, France has tried to walk a tightrope between its two former territories: Morocco and Algeria. Now, it’s thrown its lot in with Morocco, and in doing so, it’s arguably ignored a) the beleaguered UN process for a referendum, b) the top EU court’s ruling on the need to consult the locals; and c) the world’s top court finding (among other things) that the evidence didn’t “establish any tie of territorial sovereignty between the territory of Western Sahara and the Kingdom of Morocco”.

So then… why do this? Well, immigration is one part of the equation, plus the Moroccan and French security services are long-time partners. But this really goes deeper:

• France’s post-colonial ties with Algeria remain toxic – just last year, Algeria’s president even reinstated an anti-French verse in the country’s anthem
• Meanwhile, Algeria has joined the BRICS and cultivated ties with the Russians and even the Iranians, perhaps leading Paris to conclude it’s a ‘lost cause’, and
• Algeria’s main source of leverage (gas) is limited by French diversification, long-term contracts, and Algeria’s own need for revenue.

So, with France’s footprint shrinking elsewhere in Africa, Macron’s coalition back home voicing more support for Morocco, and Morocco already controlling most of Western Sahara anyway, Macron crunched the data and felt it was time to move.

Also worth noting:

• While the US recognises broad Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, others like Spain and France specifically support Morocco’s 2007 proposal, which calls for an autonomous Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty.