Davos Dispatch: Day 1

Aaah the World Economic Forum. In between engineering pandemics, rigging the Oscars, and forcing us to eat bugs, they somehow still find time to host thousands of world leaders and business elites (plus us!) in a tiny ski resort in the middle of Switzerland.

So we’ve braved the chilly temps, eye-watering prices, and absolute flood of puffer-jackets to deliver you another first-hand account of the year’s most exclusive forum.

Here’s a quick recap from Davos day 1:

• The only thing more oppressive than the traffic has been the choppers, as VVIPs arrive: today (Tuesday) it’s He (🇨🇳), von der Leyen (🇪🇺), Macron (🇫🇷), and Carney (🇨🇦); then there’s Trump, Milei (🇦🇷), and Spain’s shockingly handsome Sanchez on Wednesday, followed by Merz (🇩🇪) and Prabowo (🇮🇩) on Thursday. Hours ago, organisers finally cancelled Iran’s foreign minister over the protest massacres.

• On the ground, there’s real worry about a US takeover of Greenland (see below), adding more urgency to Europe’s push for strategic independence.

• Finland’s Stubb noted his biggest fear is Greenland taking up all the oxygen in Davos, leaving none to halt Putin’s attacks on Ukraine — and in a spicy aside missed by outlets, he even floated the possibility this distraction is deliberate.

• As for the official theme? Technically, it’s… (sorry, just had to yawn) “A Spirit of Dialogue”, though a quick look at the program shows AI is king: there are sessions on AI and media, AI and workforces, AI and <insert your country>.

• There’s a joke among diplomats about how the easiest way to double your cable readership is to somehow jam ‘China’ into the title. And yet guess what’s pretty absent from this latest Davos agenda? Yep, China (and Asia more generally), a curious omission given the region’s heft.

• The Saudis and Emiratis are also quieter this year, though that’s partly because they’re busy hustling to establish themselves as a more compelling hub for elites.

• Meanwhile, President Trump is reportedly bringing the biggest-ever US delegation. And given world leaders instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano, a record 65+ other leaders have now confirmed too.

• In fact, the whole summit is expecting record-breaking attendance, just a year after everyone was eulogising the world’s elitist and globalist event in an age of populism and nationalism. So maybe Davos is just adapting rather than dying.

To leave or take.

This Greenland story keeps (d)evolving, so here are the top four quotes you should know:

1. “On Greenland, the right way to approach an issue of this seriousness is through calm discussion between allies” — Sir Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister 

Off-ramps. Dialogue. Closed doors. That’s Starmer’s approach to Trump 2.0, and reportedly produced a Trump concession that the US leader might’ve gotten “bad information” about NATO’s Greenland exercises, after Starmer insisted these were just a response to Trump’s Arctic concerns. That’s the closest to de-escalation we’ve seen.

But as for the Danish owners of Greenland? Foreign Minister Rasmussen emerged from closed-door talks with his US counterpart (Rubio) and VP Vance last week, dragging deeply on a carpark ciggie before noting it's clear Trump has a “wish of conquering Greenland”. The shocked Danes are now ditching this week’s Davos (where Trump is due).

2. “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace” — Donald J. Trump, US President 

Imagine getting that text from the US president. Trump fired it off to Norway’s PM after the Norwegians and Finns proposed a call to de-escalate. The phone call idea might’ve landed better if coming directly from Finland’s Stubb (who Trump famously likes).

Still, the short exchange purports to spell out both Trump’s end-game (“Complete and Total Control of Greenland”) and justifications: a) this Nobel snub, b) protect Greenland from China and Russia, c) questioning Denmark’s legal ownership, and d) NATO owes us.

So how are others responding to all this…?

3. "We simply want to try to resolve this problem together, and the American government knows that we could also retaliate" — Friedrich Merz, German Chancellor 

The US holds more cards, but the Europeans can inflict pain — we saw that in the anti-coercion package they cooked up (then shelved) amid last year’s US-EU trade talks: this could again target Trump’s base, whether via the tech broligarchs or products like Harley-Davidsons and bourbon (Jim Beam halted output at its main Kentucky site last month).

But we’re already seeing the risks for Europe, too — Germany’s Merz is reportedly wary of pulling that particular trigger given Germany’s own export exposure to the US.

Meanwhile, a top Deutsche Bank exec has flagged the possibility of Europe retaliating by selling its US stocks and bonds, though most of those assets are in private funds.

As for China…?

4. “We urge the US side to stop using the so-called ‘China threat’ as a pretext to pursue selfish gains” — China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun

It was Napoleon (not Sun Tzu) who famously quipped to “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”, but it seems Mr Guo just couldn’t help himself.

Intrigue’s Take

We’ve previously explored the strategic reasons why US leaders have looked longingly at Greenland for more than a century, but the only winners in this latest approach might end up being the two autocrats Trump says he’s trying to stop: whether Putin or Xi, they now get to watch while the very thing they lack and fear (a vast alliance network) wobbles under the weight of a needless crisis that arguably just normalises (and distracts from) their own rogue territorial ambitions:

• Recall the US can already jam Greenland with bases under its existing treaty, and

• If this is about Russia (as the US president just tweeted), why use the kiddie gloves on the Russians in Ukraine, let alone invite Putin to the Gaza peace board? And why are Putin’s ultra-nationalists like Dugin tweeting gleefully about all this transatlantic disunity rather than fretting about getting outplayed in the Arctic?

We try to rise above each day’s hyperbole to explore the bigger picture, but it’s hard to see this just blowing over in Europe, even if the mid-terms end up clipping Trump’s wings — some within his party are already warning these Greenland headlines won’t help.

Sound even smarter:

• Keep an eye on US markets reopening today (Tuesday) after MLK Day, with US bond yields already spiking in early Asia trading — it’s part of a broader global selloff as rattled markets grapple with the prospect of a revived US-EU trade war.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world are googling

• 🇮🇹 Italians are searching for ‘Valentino’ after legendary fashion designer Valentino Garavani died, aged 93.

• Folks in 🇨🇱 Chile googled ‘Airbus A400 M Atlas’ after a British Royal Air Force military transport made a stopover at a Chilean military base.

• 🇦🇺 Australians looked up ‘Manly shark attack’ after a swimmer was injured at Sydney’s famous Manly beach, the city’s third shark attack in two days.

Photo of the day

While AI works to cure cancer, we’ll keep using it to add mullets to world leaders or turn ourselves into Studio Ghibli characters.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni just caught up on that latter trend, snapping the above pic with Japan’s Takaichi Sanae and converting it to Japan’s famous manga style for… fun?

As for Japan’s PM, she’s been on a roll lately, and even rocked a surprise K-pop drum duet with her Korean counterpart last week.

Soft power is partly just about being likeable. And honestly dear Intriguer, who doesn’t love ‘toons and drums?

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: What type of year do you think we'll have?

😴 Pretty calm, everything already "happened" (1%)
⚡ We'll have some shocks, but a lot of consolidating (15%)
🥵 Get ready for some unprecedented times (82%)
✍️ Other (write in your prediction!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🥵 M.S: “Military build-up and gold prices say everyone smells smoke.”

Your predictions:

• J: “Trump cannot afford to lose the House, and he might use every trick to skip the midterms.”

• T.J.H: “Epstein files will be the ‘October surprise’ before the midterms.”

• J.B: “There'll be a lot of "small" wars in certain regions, nothing big enough to be termed World War 3, I hope.”

• M.R: “Taiwan will be safe until 2027.“