Number of the day

65 

That’s how many vehicles Timor-Leste’s government had planned to buy for local lawmakers, until student-led protests forced a U-turn last week. Intriguers will sense a regional trend, after similar upheavals in Nepal, Indonesia, Philippines, and beyond.

UN-der scrutiny

Whether you’re a fan or otherwise, Donald Trump’s UN General Assembly remarks had plenty of his trademark…

• drama (“your countries are going to hell”)

• bromance (“at least for about 39 seconds, we had excellent chemistry”)

• real estate (“you walk on terrazzo, do you notice that?”), and

• fire (“these are the two things I got from the United Nations: a bad escalator and a bad teleprompter” — both devices failed him on the day).

But when the leader of the world’s largest military and economy addresses the UN, the world still listens. So here are our five top quotes:

1. “In a period of just seven months, I have ended seven unendable wars.”

The president, who ran on a peacemaker platform, has used this line before, referring to his claims around i) Cambodia-Thailand, ii) India-Pakistan, iii) Israel-Iran, iv) Armenia-Azerbaijan, v) Congo-Rwanda, vi) Serbia-Kosovo, and vii) Egypt-Ethiopia.   

Folks will of course test the details, but we’d just note Trump’s list reflects a key truth: even a US president re-elected to focus closer to home is now confronted with a world demanding more of America’s attention, as the only nation still with a global reach.

2. “The United Nations has tremendous, tremendous potential. But it's not even coming close to living up to that potential.”

Just about everyone would agree with that diagnosis. Even (especially?!) UN officials. The disagreement is more around the cure.

Mirroring his approach back home, President Trump has sought to squeeze any UN bloat (and mission creep) by slashing funding — others have followed suit for fiscal reasons.

But the result is the UN is now facing 3,000 job cuts and $500M in budget cuts. And for an organisation confronting a fraying word order with a smaller budget than the NYPD ($3.7B vs $5.7B), that’ll hurt. Sure, it’ll drive some much-needed efficiency. But it’ll also mean (as the president himself saw) you get escalators and teleprompters that don’t work.

3. “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” 

Ok we’re cheating here because the president tweeted this after his UNGA address, which did include this brief aside about the Russo-Ukraine war, btw: “Of the seven wars that I stopped, I thought it would be the easiest because of my relationship with President Putin.”

Anyway, maybe it’s just another tweet — the president makes no mention of past US deadlines, for example. But for him to now suddenly ditch his persistent line that Putin can’t be beaten and that Ukraine can never get its land back? Wow. Russian stocks felt it too, immediately plunging across the board.

So what changed? Maybe it’s Putin’s de-facto mockery of Trump’s ceasefire calls, or something from Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky after his speech. But our sense is this message probably reflects the briefings Trump is reportedly now getting from his advisors, confirming something we’ve been saying for a while now: sooner or later, Putin is screwed.

And President Trump has made no secret he likes to back winners, not losers. So maybe Ukraine’s tenacious self-defence has now inverted Trump’s view on who is who?

4. “It’s time to end the failed experiment of open borders”

The US president dedicated a chunk of his speech to undocumented migration, describing it as “the number one political issue of our time”. And Trump himself is arguably evidence of that — immigration issues not only played a key role in his two election victories; it’s actually still his policy with the highest approval (though down at 42%).

And yet, Trump’s target audience in Europe has changed since his first UN address in 2017, with most capitals now reflecting broadly similar strains of populist and nationalist public sentiment, even if individual leaders might choose their words differently.

• “It’s the greatest con job perpetrated on the world” 

Two things about the president weighing back in on climate change here: first, America’s energy transition now has its own momentum, with renewable investment up (even in Texas) despite any DC headwinds. These are cigar-chomping (not tree-hugging) decisions.

But second, that momentum is also getting accelerated by geopolitics: the US-China tech race needs chips, which need energy. That’s why Silicon Valley is now scrambling for every joule it can get, with most of Big Tech’s new energy contracts now tied to renewables — at this point, Zuck & Co aren’t doing this for the PR points. They want to win.

Intrigue’s Take

Zooming out from Trump’s longest-ever UN address (56 minutes), here are three bigger picture reflections on what it all says about the US, China, and the UN:

• First, it’s interesting to compare Trump’s fifth UN address with his first, which still featured classic US pledges of cooperation. The changes reflect not only a more confident (and fiery) president, but also a firmer conviction that multilateralism is less a US strength to leverage, and more a vulnerability to manage.

• Second, it’s interesting that while China has sought to cast itself in response as today’s more responsible and reliable multilateralist, Beijing hasn’t come close to filling the fiscal gaps left by US retrenchment. That looks to us like further proof that China is less about replacing the US, and more about displacing it.

• And third, for the UN itself? This year’s General Assembly is unlikely to produce immediate solutions, but it might help crystallise the world’s understanding of just how dire the situation is. Yet diplomats always lean back on that line famously attributed to Madeleine Albright: if the UN didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it.

Sound even smarter:

• Congress just confirmed Mike Waltz (the former national security advisor) as Trump’s ambassador to the UN.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Trust and Integrity Intelligence Lead, Global Intelligence @ Google in DC

• Intern, Advisory Graduate Program @ PWC in Milan

• Programme Assistant, Ukraine @ Basil Institute on Governance in Kyiv

• Editor / Broadcaster @ KBS English Service in Seoul

Photo of the day

Ever wondered what historians look like when they work? Perhaps chewing thoughtfully on thick-rimmed glasses near a rich mahogany bookcase while sniffing an Americano?

Well according to the pic above, your glasses can be either on or off, but you do need gloves, particularly if you’re opening a 1930s-era letter from Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk. He was Czechoslovakia’s founding president, and someone handed his parting letter to today’s Czech archives back in 2005 on the condition they stay sealed for another 20 years.

That pledge expired last Friday, when practically the whole nation tuned in for a live opening of the letter — attendees even included President Petr Pavel, who we once famously described as looking like Tom Cruise playing ripped Santa. So what did the letter say? It contained Masaryk’s views on politics, mortality, humanity, and beyond.

Fun fact: Much of the letter was in English, likely because his wife was born in the US.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Which foreign problem do you think Modi should tackle first?

🇸🇦 Reaffirming Saudi ties (5%)
🛃 Lobbying the US to reconsider its visas (19%)
📉 Lobbying the US to ease its tariffs (30%)
🇷🇺 Standing firm on its right to buy cheap Russian oil (8%)
🇵🇰 Stabilising ties with Pakistan (27%)
🇨🇳 Finalising its borders with China (8%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 📉 E.K.M: “More than important, tariff relief really just seems the most feasible.”

• 🇵🇰 D.C: “Pakistan is India’s largest threat, period.”

• 🇷🇺 R.C: “With China firmly cosied up to Pakistan and the US targeting Indian trade, Russia may soon become the only ‘superpower’ friend Modi has.”