Plus: Photo of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 5 things in the next NATO chief’s inbox |
2️⃣ Knives and axes on the high seas |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. If your Insta feed is anything like mine, I’m sure it’s currently inundated with summer content from friends who are ‘working remotely’ from Europe. I.e., jumping from one Italian pebbled beach to another, never not holding a full glass of Aperol Spritz. If anyone knows how to hack life like this, please slide into my DMs.
You know who else is no doubt keen for a summer holiday? Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing NATO secretary-general. He’s finally about to wrap up and hand over the reins to the outgoing Dutch PM, Mark Rutte, after having had his term extended four times. Spare an Aperol for Jens while we dig into our top story today.
US redirects Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
The US has announced it’ll redirect interceptor missile shipments originally requested by other countries towards Kyiv instead. The announcement comes amid renewed Russian attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. The White House declined to share which countries will be affected.
Israeli military spokesperson says Hamas can’t be eliminated.
Daniel Hagari, the military’s top spokesperson, has told an Israeli TV channel that “Hamas is an idea, anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong”, adding that “the political echelon needs to find an alternative — or it will remain.” Hamas welcomed the comments as an “admission” of defeat, while Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office quickly rebuffed Hagari, noting the government’s goal is “the destruction of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities” rather than its ideology.
US bans popular Russia-linked antivirus software.
Washington has banned the sale of antivirus software from Russian company Kaspersky Lab due to national security considerations. An investigation by the US Commerce Department highlighted concerns Russia could “influence or direct Kaspersky’s operations”. For its part, the company accused the US of making its decision “based on the present geopolitical climate and theoretical concerns”.
South Korean contractor buys US shipyard.
Defence contractor Hanwha Systems has entered into a $100M share-purchase agreement with a Norwegian-owned shipyard in Philadelphia. The deal comes four months after the US navy secretary encouraged South Korean and Japanese contractors to invest in stagnant US shipyards.
Iranian presidential candidates hold 2nd debate.
The six candidates discussed their plans for Iran’s economy during yesterday’s second televised debate, ahead of next week’s election. There are reports the five conservative candidates are jostling to become their faction’s unity pick, amid fears the sixth (more reformist) candidate could benefit from a split vote.
TOP STORY
5 things in the inbox of NATO’s next chief, Mark Rutte
Outgoing Dutch leader Mark Rutte will soon become NATO’s new secretary-general, after his only competitor (the president of Romania) quit the race yesterday (Thursday). Marky-mark will start in his new role in October.
A career politician, Mark Rutte has been Dutch prime minister since 2010, earning the nickname ‘Teflon Mark’ for his ability to survive scandals and coalition twists. He’s been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, and has backed US-led chip controls on China (at real cost to the Dutch chip machine pioneer, ASML).
Landing this NATO job wasn’t easy. Rutte has spent the last eight months hustling to win the backing of every one of the alliance’s 32 members, from big (the US) to small (Luxembourg).
One of the final holdouts was Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, who got Rutte to promise that “no Hungarian personnel will take part in the activities of NATO in Ukraine and no Hungarian funds will be used to support them”.
But while getting the job has been tough, the inbox awaiting him at NATO HQ in Brussels is tougher. Here are the top five things on Rutte’s to-do list:
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Get everyone to cough up
NATO’s rationale rests on deterrence. To back that up, NATO ministers pledged in 2006 to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, and NATO leaders then re-upped that pledge in 2014 after Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula. But even then, guess how many NATO members had hit their 2% target by 2021? Only six.
That all changed in 2022, when Putin launched his full-scale invasion. Alarmed, a record 23 NATO members now spend 2% of their GDP on defence.
But that’ll be tricky to sustain amid budget and cost-of-living pressures. And Rutte’s credibility with the laggards (like Spain, Canada, and Italy) will be undermined by the fact that Rutte himself has only just hit the 2% target this year in his own country, the Netherlands.
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Replenish NATO stockpiles
Several generals have warned that, following years of helping Ukraine defend itself, NATO’s weapons stockpiles are now looking thinner than 1990s eyebrows. So NATO members are vowing to accelerate joint procurement, boost production capacity, and lift interoperability between allied militaries.
But those big ideas are bumping up against the stubborn reality of trying to revive factories, skillsets, and supply chains that many NATO members neglected for decades. And the ripples are real and far-reaching – eg, Taiwan has been quietly fretting for years over US delays to shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.
Oh, and Rutte might also want to look into the retention issues faced by some NATO militaries if he’s got a spare 10 minutes (he doesn’t).
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Manage US ties
While US allies are spending more (see point #1 above), is it enough to satisfy weary US voters? NATO’s non-US members combined match US GDP, but they still spend less than half what the US spends on defence, and they’re dependent on US capabilities like intelligence, air-to-air refuelling, and missile defence.
The other (related) dynamic involves the top-polling candidate for the White House, Donald Trump, who has (eg) spooked NATO allies with the suggestion that US assistance could be contingent on them hitting their 2% pledges.
Here, however, Rutte seems well-placed: despite (or because of?) his willingness to push back on the former US president, Trump was known to like Rutte, earning him the title “the Trump whisperer”.
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Manage shifting EU politics
By the time Rutte takes the helm in October, he’ll be dealing with various new EU officials, a new Belgian leader, a likely new British leader, and newly-humbled leaders in France and Germany.
Plus, France’s more NATO-sceptic National Rally opposition is polling strongly ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections, though the party’s leader has said he’ll wait until the Russo-Ukraine war is over before pushing for any changes in France’s NATO commitments.
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Manage NATO’s north / east
One of the other top candidates for NATO chief was Estonia’s leader, Kaja Kallas, and her defeat hurts more than one candidate’s ego. Kallas herself made this point during a March podcast, noting that Rutte would be the fourth NATO chief from the Netherlands: “are we equals or are we not equals?”
It stings a little more when you look at NATO’s top defence contributors: five of the seven top-spenders (per GDP) are all in NATO’s north or east along Russia’s border: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland. That’s not a coincidence – each has experienced Russian invasion.
So given their stakes – and their visible NATO commitments – some of those world leaders have expressed feeling underrepresented in top NATO roles.
Now to close: as NATO nears its 75th anniversary next month, Rutte inherits a bigger and stronger alliance, but he leads it into a scary new world.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
We once heard a former European leader reflect about the last time she met Vladimir Putin. Coming out of that meeting, she observed:
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Western countries tend to anchor their security in powerful alliances and stable neighbours, while
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Russia has tended to place less trust in alliances, and foster instability among its neighbours to prevent them becoming too strong.
History will show that Putin has over-reached in Ukraine, and that’s now culminating in more NATO spending and more NATO members. Sure, that’ll bring some challenges for Rutte, but more still for Putin.
Also worth noting:
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While Americans still support the NATO alliance, polling suggests many are reluctant to sign off on “military assistance to foreign governments who fail to do their fair share."
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NATO’s mutual defence clause has only been invoked once in its 75 year history: by the US, after the terrorist attacks of September 2001.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: A senior official has said Seoul will consider sending weapons to Ukraine, a major possible U-turn after rival North Korea signed a mutual defence deal with Russia earlier this week. Predictably, Russian President Putin has warned this would be a “big mistake”.
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🇪🇺 EU: The EU has approved its first set of sanctions against Russia’s gas sector, overcoming opposition from Germany and Hungary. The sanctions won’t hit the majority of Russia’s liquid natural gas (LNG) sales to the EU, but will prohibit EU ports from reselling Russian LNG once it arrives, and will block financing for new Russian LNG terminals.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: Footage released by Philippine authorities shows China’s coastguard mariners wielding knives and axes against Philippine resupply boats this week. Manila purposefully grounded a ship in 1999 to assert its claim over part of the South China Sea, but China (which claims 90% of the sea) is seeking to block supplies to the marines stationed there.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Ruling party members have filed a lawsuit against the head of Brazil’s central bank, Roberto Campos Neto, requesting that he be banned from making political statements. President Lula has often accused Campos Neto of not cutting interest rates fast enough, and having a political agenda (he was appointed by Lula’s predecessor) .
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Hundreds of people have reportedly died of heat-related illnesses during this year’s Muslim pilgrimage to the Saudi Arabian city of Mecca, with tolls continuing to rise. Temperatures hit 51°C (124°F) in Mecca this week.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
In their words.
We thought you’d enjoy some of these intriguing quotes from world leaders and CEOs this week:
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“I must say, I keep telling my children: ‘You have to fix it. We goofed it up, you have to fix it.” – EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen when asked whether the UK could ever rejoin the EU.
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“If all the votes are counted, we will win by a landslide […] The only way that won’t happen is if there is a monumental fraud.” – Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado on the July 28 elections.
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“This company is special in that its first product will be the safe superintelligence, and it will not do anything else up until then.” – OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever on his new business venture Safe Superintelligence Inc.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credits: @IndianEmbassyUS on X
Make sure to slow your roll and get a few stretches in today because it’s International Day of Yoga! In preparation, India’s Embassy in Washington D.C. led yogis through downward dog and tree poses last Sunday.
Before descending into Shavasana bliss, India’s deputy ambassador Sripriya Ranganathan reminded folks that the ancient practice originates from India, and has grown to have hundreds of millions of followers around the world today.
DAILY POLL
What do you think should be NATO's main priority in the next five years? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think a wider war along the Israel-Lebanon border is imminent?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💥 Yes, it's inevitable (60%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📣 No, it's just sabre rattling (33%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (7%)
Your two cents:
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💥 P: “The stubborn personality of parties involved attests to the irrational continuation of war, ‘at ANY cost’, be that human, financial or otherwise.”
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📣 C.O: “Hezbollah is smarter than getting embroiled in a major war with Israel. Their leaders are fully aware the U.S. would support Israel and the outcome for Hezbollah would not be pretty.”
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✍️ R.J: “The war is already here in the form of low intensity conflict. We in the West really struggle to understand that concept. In our minds states are either in full blown war or full blown peace.”
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✍️ C.B: “It's been a while since I saw a population back a war and the government not take advantage of that desire…”
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