🌍 A ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh

Hi there Intriguer. There’ve been plenty of calls for museums to return artefacts to their traditional owners, but none quite so novel as a viral new series in China about a jade teapot transforming into a woman to escape the British Museum.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 💣 Azerbaijan attacks Nagorno-Karabakh.

• 💰 What’s going on with global debt?

• ➕ Plus: A new UN member, how the papers are covering the UK’s net zero announcement, and why folks in the Philippines are googling ‘love’.

1. 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: The leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have met to discuss their rising border tensions this week. Negotiations to demarcate the remaining third of their shared border have been ongoing for decades, with little progress.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Kyiv is filing a WTO complaint against Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, who’ve banned grain imports from Ukraine. In response to Russia’s blockade, Ukraine has exported more grain through Europe, putting pressure on EU farmers ahead of elections in Poland and Slovakia.

3. 🇳🇺 Niue: Premier Dalton Tagelagi has unveiled a new plan to sell sponsorships to help protect his nation’s territorial waters. For $148, Tagelagi says sponsors can help protect a square kilometre of ocean from threats like illegal fishing and plastic waste for 20 years.

4. 🇨🇴 Colombia: Bogotá and the rebel group EMC-FARC have agreed to a 10-month ceasefire after a previous truce collapsed in May. The EMC-FARC is an offshoot of FARC, and comprises rebels who refused to lay down their arms when FARC signed a 2016 peace deal.

5. 🇸🇴 Somalia: The EU has temporarily halted aid payments to Somalia after a UN probe found evidence of widespread theft. Over 6.6 million Somalians are facing acute food insecurity as a result of the longest-running drought in the country’s recent history.

💣 Caucasus | Conflict

A new Caucasus war?

Azerbaijan and local Armenian separatists have announced a ceasefire in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a day after Azerbaijan mounted a surprise attack.

The two sides have contested the Nagorno-Karabakh region for decades. It’s widely recognised as part of Azerbaijan but the ethnic Armenian majority there, backed by neighbouring Armenia, has self-governed since 1994.

A brief but bloody 2020 war saw Azerbaijan make gains before accepting a ceasefire, but tensions have lingered and diplomacy has faltered.

Which brings us to Tuesday, when Azerbaijan suddenly launched what it called an “anti-terrorist” offensive, quickly overwhelming local forces.

And the local ethnic Armenians weren’t the only ones caught out:

• 🇷🇺 Russia, which runs a peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh under the terms of the 2020 ceasefire, was unable or unwilling to step in, and several Russian peacekeepers died during the assault

• 🇺🇸–🇪🇺 The US and EU called on Azerbaijan to cease all hostilities and engage in “respectful” dialogue, drawing criticism from those hoping for something firmer, while on the other hand…

• 🇹🇷 Turkey backed its long-time ally Azerbaijan, with President Erdoğan expressing “support for the steps” taken by Baku.

Under the new ceasefire terms, the Armenian separatists have agreed to completely disband and enter “talks” on the future of the enclave.

Intrigue's take: Two things come to mind here. First, the word “talks” implies dialogue, but the sheer (im)balance of hard power at play means realistically, Azerbaijan will dictate what happens next. So the dissolution of the ethnic Armenians’ self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh seems inevitable.

And second, history suggests when you take centuries of strife, decades of border disputes, and multiple bloody wars, all culminating in the rule of one group over the other, it’s a recipe for disaster.

So if the world wasn’t watching Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday, it might want to start watching now.

Also worth noting:

• Luis Moreno Ocampo, the first International Criminal Court prosecutor, has labelled Azerbaijani’s actions “genocide”. Armenia’s foreign ministry has described the events as “ethnic cleansing”.

• At the request of France, the UN Security Council will today (Thursday) convene for a briefing on the situation.

• Last week, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said Armenia could no longer rely on Russia (which has a base in Armenia) for security. Armenia sent aid to Ukraine for the first time earlier this month.

📰 How newspapers covered…

British PM Rishi Sunak’s changes to the UK’s net zero targets

Today’s newsletter is supported by: Economist Intelligence – EIU

A recession has been averted, but geopolitical risks still threaten to shake the global economy. EIU, the research arm of The Economist Group, has just published its quarterly global economic outlook. The report explores the effects of disinflation and high interest rates, and how the war in Ukraine and US-China rivalry will continue to affect the economy. We also assess the diversification of capital flows, and how this could provide opportunities for other markets in Asia.

Click the link below to download your free report.

💰 Global | Debt

What’s happening with global debt?

A new report (💾) by the Institute of International Finance just dropped some big stats on global debt (i.e., total debt owed by all households, companies, and governments). It says debt:

• 📈 has spiked by $10T just in the first half of this year

• 🔺 increased by $100T just in the past decade, and

• ☝️ is now at a new all-time high of $307T.

Those are some huge numbers, so it's worth breaking them down a little: 80% of this year’s new borrowing has been in wealthier economies, where governments are spending more on priorities like the energy transition.

But domestic government debt is at "alarming levels" in poorer markets, where governments are spending more to cover interest on existing loans, and to pay for popular but expensive policies like fuel subsidies.

Intrigue’s take: Debt has been around forever; in the Louvre Museum, you can see a 4000-year-old text telling Babylonian lenders they can't just barge into private homes and seize barley to recoup a loan.

But the reality is, our understanding of debt is constantly evolving. Credit is the fuel that helps societies strive, advance, and grow. But when imbalances emerge, you run the risk of sudden crises emerging.

And that's probably the central message we take from this latest report.

Also worth noting:

• The World Bank has estimated that 60% or more of low-income countries are “at high risk of debt distress.”

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Is the UN ready to regulate artificial intelligence?

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what folks around the world were googling yesterday, Wednesday 20 September:

• 🇫🇷 French internet users were searching for updates on ‘Marwan Berreni’, an actor who went missing more than a month ago.

• 🇨🇱 Chilean film enthusiasts looked up ‘Matilde Landeta’, the Mexican filmmaker to whom Google dedicated a Doodle on the 110th anniversary of her birth.

• 🇵🇭 And folks in the Philippines googled ‘Love’ after a Finnish study published its findings into the science of how humans experience love.

🗳️ Poll time!

📜 Today in history

Today in 1981, Belize gained independence from the UK. It applied for UN membership right away, and was officially admitted four days later.

You can get more intrigue from the UN this week thanks to our co-founder John and the team’s coverage on the ground in New York. Sign up here!

Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think Canada-India ties are headed?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💥 They've hit rock-bottom with Ottawa's explosive allegations (14%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔥 Evidence will emerge, adding fuel to the fire (46%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤝 They have too many shared interests not to patch things up (38%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🤝 J.T: “Trudeau is likely bowing out, his replacement for head of the Liberal party will open a new dialogue between India & Canada.”

• ✍️ A.F: “Difficult to predict at this early point in the narrative. While we Canadians are traditionally apologetic, I don't know if a retraction or admission of maple syrup-induced confusion will come amidst all this bluster.”