Intrigue Insight: Iran update

A quick update on the situation in Iran:

• US President Donald Trump took to social media to tell Iranians to “KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!”, adding “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” without clarifying further details on what the ‘help’ would entail.  

• US officials reportedly met with Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted former Shah, over the weekend. Pahlavi is angling to position himself as a potential transitional leader in case of the regime’s collapse.  

• Meanwhile, protests continue in Iran despite a violent crackdown. There’s no way to verify the number of casualties, but by most accounts it’s now squarely in the thousands, if not tens of thousands. 

• Elon Musk has reportedly made Starlink’s satellite service free for Iranians in an effort to combat the multi-day communication blackout imposed by the authorities. 

• Meanwhile, regional players watch on. The UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, Thani Al Zeyoudi, said that the US’s threat of 25% secondary tariffs for countries that trade with Iran has “yet to be sorted.”

Quick Take: As we wrote on Monday, the regime’s collapse is not a foregone conclusion. But the longer these protests continue, the more precarious the regime’s position becomes, which could drive an even bloodier crackdown.

Mystery device

Picture it: a secluded hangar, a furtive handoff, goons with guns, suitcases bursting with cash. On one side, US operatives. On the other, sellers with a mysterious device that might finally explain Havana Syndrome.

You'll forgive our imaginations running a little wild there, but according to new reports from CNN, the source material is very much real: in the dying days of the Biden administration, a branch of the US Department of Homeland Security, clandestinely purchased a device that could be the cause of Havana Syndrome.

But first, some context…

For those who remember the 2010s, you may recall stories about Havana Syndrome —officially called Anomalous Health Incidents (AHIs) — a collection of neurological and other symptoms that hit US diplomats, spies, and their families around the world.

Those affected reportedly experienced a range of ailments, including dizziness, nausea, headaches, ringing in the ears, and dull pain.

The condition earned its nickname because the symptoms initially presented in US and Canadian officials who had worked in Cuba around 2016. Since then, hundreds of similar incidents have been recorded by US personnel posted at several locations, including Guangzhou, Vienna, Hanoi, Bogotá, and Tbilisi.

But here’s the puzzling bit: a decade on and we still don’t know what causes it. Years of studies have produced three competing theories:

1. Environmental factors — perhaps exposure to toxic chemicals or other hazards. But this isn't supported by medical data, and the symptoms have appeared in locations with nothing in common.

2. A directed-energy weapon — most likely Russian. A 2020 study found symptoms "consistent with directed, pulsed radio frequency energy." And a 2024 investigation by The Insider, 60 Minutes, and Der Spiegel linked a Russian military intelligence unit to suspected attacks.

3. Psychogenic factors — stress, anxiety, or other natural causes. A 2025 National Intelligence Council report leaned this way, concluding it's "very unlikely" a foreign adversary is responsible, or even has a weapon capable of causing the symptoms.

The CIA sits somewhere in the middle of these assessments: an unreleased 2022 assessment dismissed the idea of a large conspiracy, but couldn't rule out foreign involvement in around two dozen cases.

Now back to this intriguing device…

According to CNN’s unnamed sources, acquiring the device cost the US “eight figures.” It is reportedly small enough to fit into a backpack, has Russian components, and produces pulsed radio waves.

Those suffering from Havana Syndrome are hoping they might finally learn what happened to them, but the US has now had the device for a year and is seemingly no closer to solving the mystery.

Intrigue’s Take

Havana Syndrome has become a bit of an obsession in the US intelligence community.

For those affected, there's been a push for official recognition. Then-President Biden passed legislation to compensate those suffering from Havana Syndrome, but many remain unsatisfied by how the situation has been handled — including being publicly told the condition might just be in their heads.

Beyond the human toll, any direct evidence of a foreign power purposefully harming US officials abroad would be a serious diplomatic incident, at best, and a reason for a military response at worst.

But perhaps most importantly, isn't the US supposed to be the one inventing futuristic weapons and innovative methods of hurting its adversaries? Of course, trying to prove a negative is nearly impossible, but the fact that, nearly a decade later the mystery remains unsolved is an unnerving shortcoming of technological and intelligence capabilities.

Sound even smarter:

• An important caveat: we only know what's been made public. There'd be significant intelligence value in the US not revealing what it actually knows.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Intrigue Job Board 💼

• Defence Analyst @ International Institute for Strategic Studies in London

• Economic Advisor @ Embassy of Switzerland in Washington, DC

• Research Manager @ Good Business Lab in Colombia

• Human Rights Policy Advisor @ Irish mission to the UN, in NYC

Movie recommendation of the day

“The Square”: When a real-life Swedish diplomat returned from his posting in Pyongyang, North Korea, the press were expecting tales of intrigue from inside the reclusive Hermit Kingdom. Instead, he told them his time there was simply “so lonely” and his only way to relieve stress was biking around on empty highways. Grim.

But his story inspired South Korean director Kim Bo-sol to dream up an animated film, The Square (pictured above), which has all the ingredients of a hit, including forbidden love with a North Korean traffic officer, diplomatic intrigue, and heart-wrenching decisions.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think this Trump v Powell saga will have wider repercussions?

✅ Yes, central bank independence matters (78%)
 ❌ No, it's just another headline (21%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• ❌ W.L: “Frame it any way you want but the competing priorities of each party are what comes out in the end.”

• ✅ S: “It's really kind of strange that they'd even go down this path given that he's out in 5 months anyways.”

• ✍️ R.B: “Major reform of the FED is needed but like many Trump ideas, he correctly identifies a problem then makes it worse with his solutions.”