Plus: Map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ A surprise US meeting in Beijing |
2️⃣ A Russian spy base in Nicaragua? |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I’ve only ever broken a bone once in my life. But here’s the thing: it was a game of touch football. And I was the referee.
(If you must know, a kid tripped at full speed, and his big head hit my arm)
I guess if I had to draw a tortuous link to today’s briefing (on Jake Sullivan’s visit to China), it’d be that even when things seem fine, you’re still only ever a single miscalculation away from getting hurt.
PS – We’ll be on break this Monday, but back in your inbox from Tuesday!
Israel and Hamas agree to brief humanitarian pauses.
The aim is to facilitate the vaccination of children in Gaza against polio, after the UN confirmed a 10-month-old baby had become paralysed due to the highly infectious disease (last seen in Gaza decades ago). The two sides are scheduled to implement the brief pauses in three stages (covering south, central, and north Gaza) from this Sunday.
Pacific Island leaders wrap up annual summit.
Their broad agenda included unrest in the French territory of New Caledonia, while UN chief Antonio Guterres urged global polluters to cut emissions. Leaders also backed an Australia-funded regional police initiative, overcoming concerns it was aimed at boxing out China. Intriguingly, China’s ambassador is now angry after leaders seemingly declined to remove a reference to Taiwan in their statement. Oh, and there was a hot mic moment featuring Australia’s PM and a top US official chatting frankly about US-Australia strategy in the region.
Hong Kong journalists found guilty of sedition.
A court has convicted Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam, two former editors at a now-shuttered outlet, of conspiracy to publish and reproduce seditious material. They now face up to two years in prison, in what are the first such convictions since the UK returned Hong Kong to China in 1997.
Iran enriches more uranium.
As of mid-August, Iran had 164.7kg (363.1lb) of 60% enriched uranium, according to a UN report. While you need 90% enriched uranium to build a nuke, that’s only a short technical step away from 60%, and much more than the 3-5% you’d typically need for civilian purposes.
Ukraine confirms F-16 crash.
The US-made jet, which arrived in Ukraine only weeks ago, was apparently destroyed in an accident while on a mission to shoot down Russian missiles earlier this week. The jet was one of six that have been delivered to Ukraine so far, with another 60 or so in the pipeline.
TOP STORY
A surprise US meeting with Xi Jinping
Jake Sullivan met Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People yesterday (Thursday). Credit: Li Xueren/Xinhua
While US President Joe Biden kicked off Labor Day early on Rehoboth Beach, he kept his team busy by sending his national security advisor (Jake Sullivan) on a three-day trip to Beijing.
And the trip is significant for a few reasons. First, the venue:
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It’s the first time in seven years a US national security advisor has stepped foot in China, and yet
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It’s Sullivan’s sixth one-on-one with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi
So there’s a gesture at play here: ‘okay, we’ll come to your place this time’.
Second, the timing: Biden has continued to play hardball with Xi lately. How hard? Let’s break it down with some examples. Biden has —
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On trade, slapped another $18B in tariffs on China’s goods
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On business, he’s moved to ban TikTok unless it cuts its Beijing ties
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On tech, he’s restricted China’s access to advanced chips
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On security, he’s backed an ally (the Philippines) in the South China Sea, and
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As a kicker, he’s described China as “cheating”.
At the same time, the economic data out of China just keeps looking grim. For example, the Beijing municipal government has released figures suggesting the city’s larger hospitality businesses have seen profits drop by 89% this year. Ie, folks seem to be eating out way less given all the uncertainty.
So, it’s a complicated time for a complicated relationship.
But third, there’s Sullivan’s itinerary.
As expected, he met China’s top diplomat (Wang Yi), and the read-out was relatively conciliatory: Wang’s team described the talks as “in-depth, candid, substantive and constructive”, while Sullivan underscored “the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” (without digging into specifics that irritate Beijing).
Interestingly, Sullivan then saw General Zhang Youxia, who’s vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission. The ‘vice’ possibly gives off junior-burger vibes, but you’ve gotta remember the chair is Xi Jinping himself. So this is a big deal, and the first such US meeting since 2018 when Xu Qiliang held the role.
Anyway, true to form, the general was blunter than the diplomat, urging the US to: a) “correct its strategic perceptions of China”, b) adopt a “rational and pragmatic” approach, and c) “truly respect China’s core interests”. He closed with a mic drop on Taiwan, describing it as the “first red line that must not be crossed”.
Still, these are mostly Beijing’s standard lines, and (again) you’ve gotta remember Xi only just resumed military comms with the US at all in December, after suspending them when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022.
But then… something surprising happened: right as Sullivan was wrapping his three-day talks yesterday (Thursday), he got a last-minute invite to meet the big chair himself: Xi Jinping – well above Sullivan’s rank.
Now, China pulled a similar surprise when Secretary of State Blinken was there in April, and (bear with us here) it reminds us of the golden rule for stand-up comics: open with your second-best material (foreign minister), pad out the set with something else (defence chief), then close with your banger (the president).
Anyway, it all seemed a pretty friendly conclusion: the brief US readout didn’t mention Taiwan explicitly (just “cross-Strait issues”) and Xi shared his hopes that the “two major countries find a right way to get along with each other, serving as a source of stability for world peace and a propeller for common development.”
Naturally, reporters then wanted to know if all this means Biden and Xi might squeeze in a final meeting before Biden leaves office.
But Sullivan is still playing it coy: the world’s two most powerful leaders will both be at APEC in Peru and the G20 in Brazil in November, so anything’s possible.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Sullivan’s first encounter with Wang (this term) went down in history for descending into a broader shouting match, though that was partly due to the presence of the more acerbic Yang Jiechi, who retired last year.
Still, compared to that infamous 2021 meeting – and the months of silent treatment that’ve punctuated US-China ties ever since – this week looks good.
But as we said earlier this week, this still all feels more tactical than a change in strategy – neither side wants an escalation, but neither side is willing to back down.
You can see this in the way Biden has dispatched two top officials to the region this week, with two very different aims: Sullivan went to Beijing to engage China, while Kurt Campbell went to the Pacific Islands to counter it.
So then, what was Xi’s play this week, given Biden shortly leaves office? Xi’s probably wagering that if Biden can vacate the White House with US-China ties at least stabilised, that would (in Xi’s view at least) raise the costs for any new US president seeking to destabilise things. But as with so much else in our world today, that really depends on who wins the White House.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: A powerful typhoon made landfall in southern Japan yesterday (Thursday), bringing strong winds and rains. Authorities issued evacuation orders for millions of people, while also grounding hundreds of flights and closing major manufacturing plants, including for Toyota.
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🇷🇺 Russia: Moscow has banned an additional 92 US citizens from entering Russia, including journalists from major news outlets, university professors, and US officials. The Kremlin says the bans are “in response to the Russophobic course pursued by the Biden administration”.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: The Australian and Indonesian defence ministers have signed a security agreement that’ll improve cooperation and interoperability between the two militaries. Australia’s defence minister (and deputy PM) Richard Marles says it’s “the most significant defence agreement in the history of our bilateral relationship”.
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🇳🇮 Nicaragua: Confidencial (an independent local outlet) has published a strikingly detailed piece alleging a Nicaraguan army base near the country’s capital is actually hosting a major Russian espionage facility. Nicaraguan personnel are apparently restricted to security and maintenance roles, while the site’s tech is for Russian use only.
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🇬🇲 The Gambia: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has become Spain’s first leader to visit The Gambia this week, during a brief tour that also included Senegal and Mauritania. He’s in the region hoping to revive cooperation to curb people smuggling, which has seen 22,000 undocumented migrants reach Spain’s Canary Islands this year.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here are four other stories we couldn’t squeeze in this week:
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The Danish government has plans to create a new ministry for state security and emergency management to better prepare for new threats, particularly from Russia.
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Shares of Temu’s parent company dropped by nearly 30% after a disappointing earnings report from the e-commerce giant.
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Macron is refusing to nominate a government led by the left-leaning New Popular Front alliance, which won the most seats (though fell far short of a majority) in the last elections.
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And Cambridge researchers have published a study suggesting climate-induced shifts could trigger more land conflict between the agricultural and forestry sectors.
MAP OF THE DAY
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is massive. At 2.3 million square kilometres, it’s more than triple the size of Texas. So naturally, we wondered how it ended up with such a tiny sliver of coastline, stretching just 40km (25mi). And unsurprisingly, the answer traces back to colonialism.
By the time the major European powers gathered at the Berlin Conference of 1884-85, they’d already colonised most of Africa’s coastline. But Belgian King Leopold II wanted a way to access his vast claims across Africa’s interior – so they granted him this tiny strip, which includes the mouth of the Congo River.
Leopold’s rule was so brutal, international pressure forced him to give up direct control just 23 years later, though the DRC remained a Belgian colony until 1960.
FRIDAY QUIZ
How old is the world's oldest tree? |
How many seeds does the Millennium Seed Bank hold?(it's the biggest seed bank in the world)
|
The world's biggest flower is known for its unpleasant smell. What's its nickname? |
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