🌍 ASEAN changes location of first military excercise

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Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🌊 ASEAN moves its joint drills out of contested waters.

• 🇿🇦 Will the BRICS summit in August feature a surprise guest?

• ➕ Plus: A very pointy flag, how the papers are covering US authorities suing Amazon, and is the Saudi royal family really that rich?

1. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Following pressure from China, Fiji has backtracked on its earlier decision to reinstate diplomatic privileges for Taiwan’s mission in Suva. Fiji doesn’t formally recognise Taiwan, but the two still maintain friendly ties.

2. 🇧🇪 Belgium: The foreign minister is facing calls to resign after Belgium issued 14 visitor visas to Iranian officials. She maintains the decision was taken to avoid humiliating Iran during sensitive prisoner release negotiations.

3. 🇮🇳 India: Delhi pledged to gift Vietnam a Corvette warship following a meeting between defence ministers on Monday. Vietnam recently made a rare public protest after Chinese vessels again entered its exclusive economic zone.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro’s political career is now in the hands of Brazil’s electoral court, which is deliberating whether the former president abused his powers during last year’s election. If convicted, he’ll face an eight year ban from political office.

5. 🇸🇩 Sudan: Fighting has resumed in Sudan’s capital after the warring parties breached another ceasefire. At least 2,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million displaced since the beginning of hostilities in April.

🌊 ASEAN | Geopolitics

ASEAN relocates landmark military exercise

Indonesia announced yesterday (Thursday) it’s relocating a landmark joint regional military exercise away from the South China Sea, a contested maritime area hosting a third of the world’s total seaborne trade.

The exercises in September will be the first joint drills by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Indonesia is chairing this year.

So why the sudden change of location? 

• 🇮🇩 Indonesia said it just made more sense to bring the exercises (medical evacuations, disaster relief) closer to populated areas, but

• 🇰🇭 Cambodia had already released a statement, objecting that it never agreed to the South China Sea location in the first place

Why’d Cambodia object?

• 🏝️ China claims almost 90% of the South China Sea as its own, and

• 🤝 Cambodia has very close ties to China (which is its top investor).

So Cambodia, with no claim of its own in the South China Sea, often blocks ASEAN’s attempts to address China’s vast claims there (which are disputed by various other ASEAN members).

Intrigue's take: Geopolitics nerds everywhere did a double-take when news initially broke that ASEAN would hold these drills in the South China Sea: ASEAN seemed so divided, but was suddenly muscling up in a key hotspot.

With these exercises, ASEAN had wanted to send a message about its own unity and strength. But now, with this public spat and change of venue, ASEAN has ended up sending a rather different message to the world.

Also worth noting:

• A 2016 international tribunal ruling said China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis. China boycotted the case, which was brought by the Philippines.

• China has contributed ~44% of all foreign direct investment into Cambodia since 1994.

• Indonesia authorised the first ever deployment of two nuclear-capable US bombers to its territory earlier this week.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The US Federal Trade Commission suing Amazon for its Prime subscription schemes

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🇿🇦 South Africa | Geopolitics

Will Macron make a BRICS cameo?

South Africa is reportedly considering an invite for French President Emmanuel Macron to attend August’s summit of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

France’s foreign minister flagged Macron’s interest while in South Africa this week. And her South African counterpart said an invite wasn’t off the table, but was really a call for South Africa’s president (the 2023 BRICS host).

Intrigue’s take: There’s always been buzz around the BRICS: the possibility of a new currency, new members, or some kind of new global re-ordering.

But BRICS literally started life as an acronym invented by a Goldman Sachs economist. And several summits, statements and a shaky development bank later, its disparate members are still figuring out a common purpose.

So in the (unlikely) event Macron does score an invite, it’s hard to see his cameo nudging the BRICS needle either way.

Also worth noting:

• Russia has objected to the possibility of Macron’s BRICS attendance.

• South Africa is reportedly looking to China to host the upcoming BRICS summit instead, to avoid Pretoria having to enforce or ignore the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Russia’s president.

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

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➕ Extra Intrigue

Team Intrigue’s suggestions for the week ahead! If you have:

• 10 mins: read about Beeban Kidron, the British Baroness influencing online security laws in the US

• 40 mins: listen to this podcast exploring the origins of the Guinness World Records and the journey to its present iteration

• 2 hours: watch ‘Money Monster’, a thriller about the dangers of financial market gurus, starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts

🏁 Flag of the day

Adopted after independence from the US in 1979, the flag of the Marshall Islands features two diagonal bands (white for sunrise, orange for sunset) amid a sea of blue. The 24-point star symbolises the nation’s 24 voting districts, with four prominent points representing its four main cultural centres.

Our score: 9.1/10

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