Plus: Sweden officially joins NATO
Hi Intriguer. Good news, dear Intriguer. We’re hosting our first-ever, official, in-person Intrigue event!
With thanks to our friends at Blackbird VC, our jet-setting co-founder Helen will be in Sydney, Australia to co-host a lunch and fireside chat with Australian senator and former ambassador to Israel, Dave Sharma.
I’ll be there too, perhaps using one of those t-shirt cannons to launch Intrigue merch into the cheering crowd. Or maybe nodding pensively from the audience. I haven’t decided yet.
Anyway, it’s on Friday 22nd March, with spaces strictly limited, so get in quick and RSVP here! It’ll be the first of many Intrigue events around the world.
And now onto today’s briefing, which leads with President Biden’s State of the Union address.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
Hopes for Ramadan truce fade. The Hamas delegation has left talks to establish a Gaza ceasefire, but vowed to continue negotiations. Mediators had hoped to push through a phased deal that included an initial 45-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of some hostages. Israel didn’t attend this week’s talks in Cairo, citing Hamas’s failure to provide the details of Israeli hostages still alive (something Hamas says it can’t do without a ceasefire).
US House to vote on TikTok bill. The US House of Representatives has scheduled a vote next week on a bill requiring social media platform TikTok to sever all ties to its China-based parent company or face a US ban. The Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously approved the bill (50-0) on Thursday, underscoring the bipartisan sentiment at play. The app has around 170 million US users and is now encouraging them to oppose the proposed legislation.
Hundreds of pupils abducted in Nigeria. More than 280 pupils between the ages of eight and 15 have been kidnapped in north-western Nigeria, likely by a local gang. It comes days after a separate incident in which presumed Boko Haram Islamists kidnapped dozens of women and children in north-eastern Nigeria.
UK presses Israel on Gaza aid. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron has used a meeting with Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz to discuss efforts to secure a humanitarian ceasefire, and press Israel to allow more aid into Gaza. In a statement, Cameron added: “We are still not seeing improvements on the ground. This must change.”
Ireland votes on International Women’s Day. Ireland is holding a constitutional referendum on two questions this International Women’s Day (today, 8 March): whether to remove a controversial reference to a woman’s “duties in the home”, and whether to revise the definition of family. Polls project a double yes vote but low turnout.
Great Barrier Reef suffers mass bleaching. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has confirmed that “a widespread, often called mass, coral bleaching event is unfolding” in the country’s waters. The Authority’s chief scientist says the phenomenon, which entails the whitening of usually colourful corals, is driven by rising sea temperatures connected primarily with climate change.
TOP STORY
The geopolitics of President Biden’s pre-election State of the Union address
Canva AI prompt: state of the union [we added the image of President Biden]
US President Joe Biden delivered his last State of the Union address before November’s presidential election last night (Thursday evening local time in DC).
As ever, it was a chance for the president to address a joint session of Congress, a national audience at home, and capitals all around the world, on his administration’s achievements to date and his vision for what’s to come.
We’ll leave the politics to others, but here are four of the lines with the biggest geopolitical implications for the US and the world.
1) “Now it is we who face an unprecedented moment”
While the speech was pretty upbeat overall, Biden’s opening was grim, quoting from President Franklin D Roosevelt’s 1941 famous address to Congress. Drawing comparisons with WWII, Biden said “if anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not”, and it’s “emboldening others who wish to do us harm”.
With a quick shout-out to NATO’s newest member Sweden (whose prime minister was in the audience), Biden called on the House to approve military aid to Ukraine, before addressing Russia’s president directly: “We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.”
2) “Turning setback into comeback. That’s America!“
Biden used his speech to reiterate an argument he and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan have often made: that revival at home is an integral part of meeting unprecedented challenges abroad. This linking of America’s domestic and international fortunes is also intended as an answer to doubts that US allies and adversaries alike have had around US capabilities and intentions.
3) “Tonight, I’m directing the U.S. military to lead an emergency mission”
Biden then moved on to the biggest announcement of the night: an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier on the Gaza coast to receive large ships carrying humanitarian aid. “No US boots will be on the ground”, he clarified.
Separate media briefings say the operation will run out of Cyprus, it’ll involve a floating pier, it could take 30-60 days to implement (in cooperation with partners), and it could add hundreds of extra truckloads of aid per day for the Palestinians. This raises all kinds of interesting questions, which we’ll delve into below.
But Biden made the announcement in the context of a speech that otherwise reiterated his three main views here: “Israel has a right to go after Hamas”, Israel also has “a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent civilians in Gaza”, and “as we look to the future, the only real solution is a two-state solution”.
4) “For years, all I’ve heard… is ‘China’s on the rise and America is falling behind’. They’ve got it backward. America is rising. ”
While the ‘they’ here was folks in DC – and Biden left the other implication unsaid (ie, that ‘China is falling behind’), it still sounds like a direct shot at Chinese President Xi Jinping, who reportedly told his officials at the height of the pandemic in 2020 that “the East is rising while the West is declining”.
Biden clearly wanted to remind folks that while the US appears consumed with the Middle East and Ukraine, he sees China as the longer-term challenge to US interests. Whether one agrees or not, Biden’s remarks are a reminder of how quickly the US view of China has flipped.
Wrapping it all up, he declared “there is nothing beyond our capacity when we act together”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
While his reflection on the world’s moment was grim and his take on America’s response was optimistic, there were no big shifts beyond his Gaza pier announcement, which raises three implications plus three questions.
On the implications, first – the decision to establish a new Gazan pier for aid suggests an understanding that this conflict, or at least the humanitarian disaster it’s triggered, isn’t ending any time soon.
Second, Israeli officials say they’re fully on board, but it’s hard to think of another example where the US has effectively broken its own ally’s blockade like this. And third, beyond the humanitarian objective, it’s clearly also an election year move to gird Biden’s left flank.
Then on the questions we’re now pondering, first: the focus is on what this pier helps bring into Gaza, but the thing about boats is they can move the other way, too – and inevitably that’ll open questions around what (or who) might be allowed a ride out. Eg, will the US run medical or other humanitarian evacuations?
Second, this new pier aims to get aid to Gaza’s shore, but it’s unclear what then happens with it. The US will want a plan to avoid its shipments triggering more chaos and violence, or ending up exclusively in Hamas hands.
And third, the president says there’ll be no US troops on Gazan soil, but they’ll be close, and that raises questions around how to ensure the operation’s security without expanding America’s own target surface area in the region.
We’re giving away 2 tickets to hit podcast Lovett or Leave It!
⭐️ “Lovett or Leave It is a live variety show and podcast that breaks down the week’s news in politics and pop culture with sketches, games, jokes that literally never miss, and everyone’s favorite: nuanced analysis.” ⭐️
Intrigued? Here’s how to win the tickets: Refer as many new subscribers as possible to Intrigue before Friday, 4 April (using your backup email address doesn’t count! 🤣).
Each new referral will give you another ticket in the giveaway! The more you refer, the higher the chance you have to win.
P.S. If you can’t get to DC, fret not – we’ll be doing more event giveaways around the world soon!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: A Montenegrin court has ordered the extradition of cryptocurrency tycoon Do Kwon to his native South Korea, shortly after another local court blocked his extradition to the US on procedural grounds. Kwon was arrested last year in connection to the $40B crash of his Terraform crypto-coins, which sent shockwaves through the sector.
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🇺🇦 Ukraine: A Russian missile exploded “very close” to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a visit by the two leaders to Odessa. Although Russia has targeted Ukrainian cities during previous VIP visits, this is the closest it has come to hitting a leader since the start of the war.
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🇮🇳 India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made his first visit to Kashmir’s main city since his government repealed the disputed region’s semi-autonomy in 2019. The Muslim-majority territory has been at the centre of a long-running feud between Pakistan and India, and Modi’s visit is seen as part of his national campaign ahead of April-May elections.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: Protesters have used a pickup truck to break through the doors of the National Palace, where President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was delivering his daily press conference at the time. The group is seeking justice for the 2014 disappearance of 43 students which, according to a later official inquiry, was a “crime of the state”.
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has transferred a cool $164B stake in its state-owned oil company, Aramco, to its state-owned sovereign wealth fund. The move is meant to bolster the fund’s cashflows as it prepares to spend billions on local projects, such as a vaunted new smart city in the desert.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here are our Team Intrigue recommendations for those of you looking to prepare for this weekend’s Oscars
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John: For the Best Feature Film category I can’t but hope for an ‘Oppenheimer’ win.
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Helen: For Best International Feature, I suggest watching Italy’s ‘Io Capitano’, about Senegalese teenagers who embark upon a voyage in the hope of a better future.
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Jeremy: In the Best Live Action Short category, I particularly loved ‘The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar’ for its unmistakable touch of Wes Anderson magic.
TWEET OF THE DAY
Yesterday (Thursday), Sweden officially became the 32nd member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), nearly two years after submitting its bid. The traditional flag-raising ceremony will take place in Brussels on Monday.
There were lots of interesting tweets about this milestone, but our personal favourite came from Australia’s former prime minister and current ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd. Why? He included a photo of him as a junior diplomat in Sweden back in the 80s, sporting what can only be described as a spectacular mullet. With early-career plumage like that, he was always destined for greatness.
FRIDAY QUIZ
How much do you know about the UK? Today’s quiz features three questions (plus the official answers) from its citizenship test!
1) Where is Big Ben located? |
2) What did Sir Frank Whittle invent in the 1930s? |
3) When was the last successful foreign invasion of England? |