Plus: Holiday of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ A joint China-Russia patrol through the Bering |
2️⃣ A sixth season for an Intrigue favourite? |
3️⃣ Holiday of the day |
Hi Intriguer. You gotta be careful what you complain about, lest anyone take it as an invitation to just do that thing some more. Two music examples:
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When word broke that singer-songwriter Ryan Adams got irritated by a heckler demanding he play Summer of ‘69 (by the other guy: Brian Adams), of course, his concerts soon became full of jokers calling out “play Summer of ‘69!”; and
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Legendary jazz pianist Keith Jarrett hates audience coughs so much, he stops his concerts, leads everyone in a group cough, and even tosses throat lozenges at coughers – but of course, his concerts now have a suspiciously high cough ratio.
Anyway, keep that in mind while reading today’s briefing, which looks at a relatively chill US response to a joint Russia-China coast guard patrol through the Bering Sea.
The latest from the Middle East.
Israeli strikes on a Hezbollah-linked health centre in the middle of Beirut have killed at least six people, while at least eight Israeli soldiers have now died in Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon’s south. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has said he wouldn’t support any potential Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, though the US is in conversation with Israel over “what they're gonna do”.
Russia claims another town in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have retreated from Vuhledar after Russian troops threatened to encircle the coal-mining hub. Vuhledar (now mostly destroyed) has tactical value because it’s perched atop a hill and is also close to major railways that are key for supply lines.
OpenAI closes record $6.6B funding round.
Tech darling OpenAI has completed its latest funding round, raising $6.6B in new cash and nearly doubling its valuation to $157B. Microsoft tipped in another $750M, on top of the $13B it’s already invested. OpenAI is now one of the world’s most valuable private companies, with only ByteDance (TikTok) and Elon Musk’s SpaceX worth more.
New court filings in Trump 2020 case unsealed.
A federal judge has unsealed portions of a 165-page filing in which prosecutors argue why their 2020 election case against Donald Trump should proceed despite a recent Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity. In response, Trump has described the filing as “pure election interference.” PS – don’t miss our next edition of Election Intrigue, the weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world.
WWII bomb explodes at Japanese airport.
A US World War II bomb buried beneath Miyazaki airport has exploded, leaving a sizeable crater in the taxi area and causing over 80 flights to be cancelled. Authorities are still investigating what set off the device, which fortunately didn’t cause any injuries.
UK transfers sovereignty of remote islands.
And in breaking news, the UK has just agreed to transfer sovereignty of the strategic Chagos Islands (in the Indian Ocean) to Mauritius, after years of negotiations. It’ll include the tropical atoll of Diego Garcia, which is home to a secretive US-UK military base.
TOP STORY
China and Russia sail the Bering Sea
Before kicking off its boots for China’s week-long national day holiday, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted an Arctic patrol over the weekend. And that’s significant because:
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a) It involved passing through the Bering Sea between Russia and the US (Alaska)
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b) It’s reportedly the first time China’s coast guard has entered the Arctic, and
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c) It took this step with its ‘no limits’ partner Russia (reminder: Putin and Xi declared a ‘no limits’ partnership, days before Vlad invaded Ukraine in 2022).
So then, why’d they do it?
The Russians haven’t offered an explanation. And neither did China, until the US did the diplomatic equivalent of a fake cough, releasing a statement noting a routine US border patrol had observed the four vessels (two each) transiting just within Russia’s boundary.
The subsequent media interest then prompted Beijing to release a statement yesterday (Wednesday), saying its aim was to expand its coast guard’s range, test its abilities in new oceans, bolster its participation in international governance, and help maintain order.
So why would anyone mind?
Well officially, nobody does mind (see the dry US statement above). But unofficially, you can bet strategists in Beijing, Moscow, and the West are all over this for three reasons.
First, both China and Russia have a history of using their civilian coast guard for non-civilian purposes. For example:
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China has been ramming Philippine vessels inside Philippine waters to assert its vast claims over the South China Sea (rejected by an international tribunal), and
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Russia once used coast guard vessels to fire upon and then seize three Ukrainian navy vessels in international waters (a couple of years before it then invaded).
Second, this adds a bit more substance to the China-Russia ‘no limits’ friendship, which aims for “the establishment of a new kind of relationship between world powers” (ie, kinda remaking the international order). But of course, while China is helping keep Russia’s wartime economy afloat, there are clearly still ‘limits’ between them: eg, Beijing is even squeezing Moscow on gas prices right now. So the occasional joint coast guard exercise is a low cost way to still hint at something bigger and keep your rivals guessing.
And third, there’s the Arctic itself which is, despite appearances, so hot right now. The US and its allies make up seven of the world’s eight Arctic states. Russia is the eighth (and largest), while China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” – that’s not officially a ‘thing’, and even if it was, China’s northernmost provincial capital is about as close to the Arctic as Portland is. So then, what’s all this interest in the Arctic?
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An estimated 13% of the world’s untapped oil reserves and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas are in the Arctic
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The region is rich in resources like critical minerals (essential for energy, tech, and defence industries), and
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While the melting ice portends an ecological disaster, it’s also opening up new maritime routes which could change the face of global trade.
But zooming out a little further, there are some big picture strategic stakes, too: a top fear for traditional land powers like Russia and China is the risk of being (or feeling) ‘encircled’ by your enemies. So from that perspective, expanding your presence up north is a way to break that fear of encirclement and even reverse-Uno it against your rivals:
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The US flew two strategic bombers off Russia’s Arctic coast in July
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Russia and China then jointly flew bombers off Alaska for the first time, and
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That’s all while Russia has built or revived ~500 military sites along its Arctic over the past decade.
And this is all playing out on the diplomatic front too, with Moscow and Beijing convening an Arctic conference last week, signing a shipping pact (with Arctic characteristics) in August, and their two presidents highlighted joint Arctic work in May.
So against all that, it’s easy to see a routine joint coast guard exercise in a whole new light.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Zooming out a little further, another interesting aspect of all this is what’s happening with the Arctic Council: that’s the international body that’s meant to guide cooperation among the eight Arctic powers. Seven of the Council’s eight members are now NATO members. The eighth is Russia (China is an observer).
And the thing is, ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, that Arctic Council has effectively broken down. That’s hampered environmental cooperation in a region that desperately needs it. But it’s also removed guardrails against outright Arctic competition, commercialisation, and militarisation.
So you can add the Arctic to the long and growing list of places now feeling the effects of Putin’s decision to invade his democratic neighbour.
Also worth noting:
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China and Russia agreed back in 2017 to develop a ‘Polar Silk Road’ (through the Arctic Sea), under China’s Belt & Road infrastructure initiative. But not a lot has really happened since then.
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The Pentagon released a new Arctic Strategy in July, featuring sections on China and Russia’s objectives in the region, plus the ‘monitor and respond’ approach the US is taking in response.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇭🇹 Haiti: Haiti’s anti-corruption unit has charged three members of the country’s transitional council, accusing them of demanding $750K from the head of a state-owned bank in return for him keeping his job. The accusations, all denied, come as Haiti struggles to restore order against dominant armed gangs.
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🇲🇩 Moldova: Tensions are flaring up ahead of Moldova’s elections later this month, with the leader of the opposition now under fire for holding a Romanian passport. That’s raised a few eyebrows because his own pro-Russia opposition party has long hammered the pro-Western president for having a Romanian passport (Romania is a NATO member).
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🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Despite the country’s hydro plants receiving more water this year, Kyrgyzstan’s energy minister says rising demand means there are still major electricity shortages ahead. In response, Kyrgyzstan (which already gets ~87% of its electricity from hydro) is now building even more hydro plants.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: Manila is stepping up its candidacy for a 2027-28 seat on the UN Security Council, with its top diplomat Enrique Manalo highlighting his country’s track record at the UN over the weekend. By seeking a temporary seat at the UN’s top table, the Philippines likely hopes (among other things) to boost its leverage in its ongoing maritime disputes with China.
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🇩🇯 Djibouti: At least 45 people have died and another 100+ remain missing after people smugglers reportedly forced them to disembark at sea and swim the last stretch to Djibouti. Many undocumented migrants from the Horn of Africa use this route to travel between their homes and wealthier countries in the Gulf.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
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Art: The US has earmarked $1M for the University of Pennsylvania’s Cultural Heritage Center to help Ukraine protect its cultural heritage.
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Entertainment: Word is emerging that there might be a sixth season of France’s hit espionage thriller TV series The Bureau, to be set in West Africa.
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Science: In a world first, researchers in China have reportedly reversed a woman’s type 1 diabetes via cell transplants.
HOLIDAY OF THE DAY
Today (October 3) is German Unity Day, or Tag der Deutschen Einheit 😎, marking the end of a four decade split between democratic West Germany and the Soviet-aligned East.
To celebrate, folks in Germany get a day off, while German diplomats abroad mark the occasion in all sorts of ways. In Washington, for example, the German ambassador hosted hundreds of guests (including Intrigue) at his residence in the chic Foxhall neighbourhood last week. The various VIPs included fellow German-speaker, current New Jersey governor, and former US ambassador to Germany, Phil Murphy.
Despite the generous open bar, there was still one topic of conversation not a single diplomat would touch: who they think will win the US elections next month. Well trained.
DAILY POLL
What do you think this joint Russia-China patrol through the Bering Sea means? |
Yesterday’s poll: Are we near a de-escalation in the Middle East?
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✅ Yes, Iran's volley did minimal damage (7%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ❌ No, Israel can't let that go unanswered (87%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Maybe, it depends on… (tell us what!) (3%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (34)
Your two cents:
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❌ H.N.T: “It's not even a question of whether Israel will respond to Iran — the more pressing matter is how.”
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🤝 L.B.M: “Tit-for-Tat, or the sequential game play will continue until a diplomatic solution is found.”
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✍️ J.G: “I thought Iran wouldn’t do it, because I know Iran’s nuclear program is a box on Israel’s checklist.”
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