🌍 China’s economic recovery is picking up steam

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen flew to Azerbaijan yesterday (Tuesday). Azerbaijan, which opened its first embassy in Israel last month, reportedly helps Israel gather intel on neighbouring Iran.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: A court has sentenced a Russian opposition activist to 25 years in prison for treason. It’s the first time anyone’s been convicted on that count for making public statements containing publicly available information.

3. 🇫🇯 Fiji: The World Bank has warned Fiji to urgently cut its debt burden or risk undermining its economic recovery. The tourism-dependent island nation was hit hard by Covid-19.

4. 🇺🇸 US: The FBI has arrested two people accused of running a covert Chinese police station to intimidate dissidents in the US. Canada, the Netherlands, and the UK denounced similar illegal operations on their soil last year.

5. 🇹🇳 Tunisia: Authorities arrested a key opposition leader on Monday, the latest in a string of opposition figures detained. Tunisia was the only democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring uprisings, but has now all but reverted to autocratic rule.

🇨🇳 CHINA | ECONOMICS

China’s back, according to the latest data

Briefly: According to data released in Beijing, China’s economy is recovering faster than expected, months after the government decided abruptly to end its strict pandemic controls and restore business confidence.

But don’t crack that baijiu bottle just yet:

⏲️ There could be a degree of ‘backloading’ here, as consumers and businesses make up for time lost during last quarter’s Covid controls

🎓 Youth unemployment has spiked, as the economy struggles to absorb a record 11.6 million college graduates looking for jobs this year

💻 And the US ban on high-end chip sales to China seems to be biting, with production of micro computing devices down by 21.6% compared to last year

So that’s probably why China’s statistics agency described the data as a “good start”, but “not solid yet.”

Intrigue’s take: If IMF forecasts are to be believed, a third of the world’s total economic growth will take place in China this year.

And China is now the top trading partner for more than 120 countries, hoovering up everything from Ukrainian corn and American machinery, through to South African diamonds and Brazilian soy.

So all in all, this “good start” in Beijing is probably good news for the world.

Also worth noting:

• Hainan province unveiled a sweeping pro-business package last month, though some measures (like a promise not to unnecessarily jail entrepreneurs) triggered more nerves than optimism.

• Many observers believe Beijing has completed its regulatory crackdown on big tech, which had stymied growth in the sector.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Wander

🇺🇸 US | INTELLIGENCE

US intelligence leaks keep coming

Briefly: Staying on top of all the US intel leaks is harder than keeping up with Taylor Swift’s album release schedule (we’re still back at Folklore). But here are some recent revelations that caught our eye (about US intel, not Tay Tay).

1. 🇷🇺 Only 1% of Russian social media bots are detected, according to intercepted conversations between Russian officials. Russia has used bots to spread disinformation about Ukraine and vaccines.

2. 🇺🇳 The US eavesdropped on UN chief António Guterres, including when he described being “really pissed off” about a surprise public ceremony sprung on him by Ukrainian president Zelensky.

3. 🇪🇬 Egypt nearly provided Russia with lethal aid, but agreed to arm Ukraine instead after US pressure. The Egyptian president had hoped to keep the Russia plan a secret “to avoid problems with the West.”

Intrigue’s take: In this day and age, spying is a little like waving at someone who wasn’t actually waving at you: everyone does it, but it’s still embarrassing when you get caught.

But as the UN itself has stated, arguably the most embarrassing aspect of all this is how the leaks happened in the first place: via such a junior US official, privy to so much classified material, and able to remove it so easily.

Also worth noting:

• Eavesdropping at the UN has a long history – the UK allegedly bugged UN chief Kofi Annan’s office in the lead-up to the Iraq War.

• Egypt receives $1.3B a year in US military aid, though the US has withheld some of that in recent years due to human rights concerns.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Ever wondered how inflation is tracking worldwide? Here’s a quick sample (year-on-year) for March 2023.

• 🇺🇸 US: 5%

• 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 35.37%

• 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 22.04%

• 🇨🇴 Colombia: 13.34%

• 🇨🇳 China: 0.7%

• 🇩🇪 Germany: 7.4%

🏁 FLAG OF THE DAY

The flag of Sicily was formally adopted in 2000, but traces its origins to a Sicilian rebellion in 1282 CE. The red and yellow represent Palermo and Corleone (the cities where the rebellion started). Meanwhile, the head of Medusa and wheat ears represent fertility, and the three legs represent the three corners of the island. This one’s hard to beat.

Our rating: 9.8/10

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Where is India's foreign policy headed?

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👈 West (towards the US) (3%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👆 North (towards Russia) (21%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👉 East (towards China) (4%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🧭 Everywhere (it's now a multipolar world) (70%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🧭 V.R: “India’s move towards Russia is purely economical with a long-term vision to stabilise its economy against China. India has long been ready to have a seat at the table of global powers, and increasing its GDP may be the way to get there…”

• 👈 A.M: “They will trade with everyone but foreign policy will be westish”