Plus: Brazil's military deployment
Hi Intriguer. I spent plenty of time at university learning highfalutin theories of international relations. But in the end, much just comes down to leaders whatsapping each other from a motorcade at 2am.
And if that’s the case, then much also depends on who leaders really are. We share below some of the more prominent reflections on who Henry Kissinger was, ranging from “statesman” to “war criminal”. And in the gulf between, plenty of Kissinger moments are now bubbling up from history.
Whether it’s the late Anthony Bourdain’s famed 2001 dunk; or an ill-fated interview for a New York Times style section; or the footage of a flabbergasted Chairman Mao meeting Kissinger’s (tall) wife.
It all leaves a sense that, one way or another, Kissinger was determined to shape history. And with that, let’s get to today’s briefing, which leads with some unexpected history being made on the first day of COP28 in Dubai.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
Israel knew of Hamas plans. Israeli security officials reportedly obtained detailed plans about the 7 October Hamas attacks last year, but brushed them off as too audacious for the group’s capabilities. This leak will intensify criticism towards some Israeli officials (and that was presumably the leaker’s objective).
The truce is over. Israel resumed its bombarding of Gaza this morning (Friday), shortly after its (twice-extended) truce with Hamas expired. Qatari mediators claim negotiation efforts to revive the pause are still ongoing, while the UN says as many as 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have now been forced from their homes.
China’s factory output is down. China’s factory activity contracted for the second month in a row in November, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is still struggling despite government help. And it’s not alone: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also reported slow factory activity for the month.
France bans WhatsApp for ministers. France has banned popular messaging apps WhatsApp and Signal for ministers and their teams due to security vulnerabilities. Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne set an early December deadline for everyone to switch to French app Olvid instead.
Tension in Guinea-Bissau. Heavy gunfire erupted in the capital this morning, shortly after National Guard soldiers broke into a police station to free two detained state officials. The streets are reportedly now calm again.
TOP STORY
COP28 off to a solid start
Just as our co-founder Helen sets foot in Dubai, there’s a major breakthrough: after months of negotiations, nearly 200 nations have agreed on how to run a ‘loss and damage fund’ to help poorer countries weather the impacts of a changing climate.
Here’s what they decided:
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The World Bank will provisionally host the fund
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Countries will replenish it with cash every four years
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It’ll start backing projects around the world early next year, and
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A handful of rich countries have already cut some serious cheques, with the UAE, EU and Germany each dropping ~$100M.
This fund is a big deal, partly because negotiators hammered it out with unusual agility – for reference, it took four years to land the Paris Agreement (though some countries have been calling for a loss and damage fund for three decades).
This is also a big deal because the fund itself is such a polarising idea: it’s like a quasi-reparations scheme channelling cash from rich, high-polluting countries to the poorer, lower-emitting countries that often bear the climate brunt.
Inevitably, the reactions to this kind of news have been mixed:
Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s climate envoy, says it’s “so important to get [the fund] going with the impacts happening the way they are now”.
But others have pointed out that the approved text has several shortfalls:
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Contributions are entirely voluntary, with no minimum ticket – a condition the US fought to keep in the final text (the US needs congressional approval for contributions above a certain limit), and
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Some don’t like that it’ll be run by the World Bank, which has a US-dominated structure and which has continued to back oil & gas projects.
But on the whole, the prevailing sentiment on the ground in Dubai is sheer bewilderment that this deal has happened at all, let alone so quickly.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
While the world digests this news, our very own co-founder Helen shares some reflections on the vibe among COP negotiators:
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After last year, there was an expectation of more talk here in Dubai, but no real pen to paper, certainly no signing, and so definitely no funding. But here we are emerging from COP28’s opening day with an agreed fund and $>400M pledged already. A win for diplomacy.
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Folks are saying it’s thanks to the sheer hustle of UAE diplomats. The petrostate (accused of impropriety) was an unlikely choice as host, but wanted to be judged on its results. So, well played.
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But between bouts of back-slapping, there are whispers on what the actual impact will be. E.g., one climate finance guru in Southeast Asia expects to see mining companies tap this new fund to repair ecological damage from their mines (rather than paying for it themselves).
Still, at a time when so little in this world seems to go to plan, this looks like proof to us that big, complex negotiations can still work.
Also worth noting:
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There are some estimates the fund could need $400B annually by 2030 to cover the full costs of loss and damage.
SPEND THE HOLIDAYS WITH INTRIGUE
‘Tis the season…
To thank all you dear readers for sticking around another year (and we hope many more to come), please enjoy these treats and stay tuned across our socials for more:
Plus, keep an eye out for our End of 2023 Special Edition! It’ll be a cracker.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen has told the New York Times that China is currently too “overwhelmed” with its domestic situation to invade Taiwan. US intelligence reportedly believes President Xi has given China’s military a 2027 deadline to be ready for such a move.
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🇵🇱 Poland: Thousands of trucks are being held up at the Polish-Ukrainian border due to a protest by Polish truckers against what they say is unfair competition from their Ukrainian counterparts. In response, a top EU official has criticised Warsaw, saying the EU “cannot be taken hostage by blocking our external borders”.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: Local authorities are due to block popular crypto trading platform Binance shortly, according to an advisory note circulated on Wednesday. Binance and its founder pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering and US sanctions violations last month.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Brasilia is deploying extra troops to its northern border ahead of a controversial referendum in neighbouring Venezuela this Sunday. The referendum will ask whether Venezuela should annex a disputed, oil-rich territory currently administered by Guyana.
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Riyadh has reportedly offered increased investment in Iran if Tehran agrees to rein in its regional proxies like Hamas. The Saudis have apparently made the offer multiple times via various channels since the Hamas attacks on Israel, but no word yet on Iran’s response.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What we’re reading about Henry Kissinger
THIS DAY IN HISTORY
Workers digging underneath Avenida de Mayo in Buenos Aires with the Congressional Palace in the background (1912). Source: Archivo General de la Nación
On this day 110 years ago, Buenos Aires became the first city in Latin America, the Southern Hemisphere, and the Spanish-speaking world to open an underground metro. At the time, Argentina was among the most prosperous countries in the world and was twice as wealthy as its former colonial rulers in Madrid, who didn’t get an underground until 1919.
Today, Spain’s GDP per capita is triple that of Argentina.
WEEKLY QUIZ
1) London opened the first subway system in the world. Which city opened the second? |
2) Which metro is a UNESCO world heritage site? |
3) Shanghai’s metro (founded in 1993) is the busiest in the world. How many passengers did it carry in 2019? |
(The quiz answers should now appear when you select your option above 🤞)