Plus: Myanmar becomes top opium producer
Hi Intriguer. My stint on the front lines of negotiating a free-trade agreement taught me that sometimes it’s not mastery of the details that “seals the deal” but rather the performative tactics – like stalling, staging a walkout, or gavelling a deal as final before everyone is in the room (more on that later) – that get the deal done.
On that note, let’s crack on with today’s briefing on where the COP28 climate talks just landed…
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
”Losing support”. Speaking to donors at a political fundraiser, US President Biden has said Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” means it’s “starting to lose support… around the world”. His remarks come after yesterday’s non-binding UN resolution calling for a ceasefire, with 153 countries in support, 23 abstaining, and 10 against (including the US, Austria, Guatemala, and Papua New Guinea).
Flooding tunnels. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Israel has begun pumping sea water into tunnels under Gaza, where Israel believes Hamas is hiding itself, its hostages, and its weapons. The newspaper says some US officials are concerned the move could endanger the strip’s fresh water supply.
Shock therapy. Argentina’s new economy minister announced a major reform package last night to contain the country’s economic “emergency”. The measures included devaluing the peso, halting public infrastructure projects, and cutting subsidies while lifting the value of food cards and child benefits. The IMF, owed $43B by Argentina, quickly welcomed the package.
A win for Russia? President Biden has criticised congressional opposition to continued US aid to Ukraine, saying, “if you’re being celebrated by Russian propagandists, it might be time to rethink what you’re doing.” Republican leaders have insisted any aid for Ukraine be paired with tighter security at the southern US border.
TOP STORY
L to R: Young Indian climate activist Licypriya Kangujam, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber
What just happened at COP28?
Negotiators at this year’s COP climate talks clocked up some serious overtime last night to secure a final agreement earlier this morning (Wednesday).
The talks were due to wrap up yesterday, but the 198 COP countries and other members couldn’t agree on the text of the world’s first global stocktake. It’s a key document to track the world’s progress towards the goals adopted in the 2015 Paris Agreement, like limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A quick recap of the negotiations:
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An early draft of the global stocktake included an unprecedented pledge to "phase out" fossil fuels, backed by players like the US, the EU, and small islands
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Then a later draft text released Monday dropped those two words altogether after OPEC (the cartel of oil-producing nations) urged its members to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, i.e. fossil fuels rather than emissions.”
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But in turn, Monday’s draft upset the ‘Umbrella Group’ of key players, including the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Norway, who issued a joint statement saying they wouldn’t be a “co-signatory to… death certificates” for small island states.
The final agreement
So negotiators worked through last night (local time) to find a compromise: instead of “phase out” or “phase down”, the final text calls for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade”.
It’s significant because, whichever formulation of words you prefer, it’s the first time any COP agreement has called for the world to curb fossil fuels.
Early reactions to the agreement appear mixed:
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🇼🇸 Samoa: “The course correction that was needed has not been secured. The exclusive focus on energy systems is disappointing… it takes us backward rather than forward… there is a litany of loopholes [in the agreement].”
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🇪🇺 EU: “Humanity has finally done what is long, long, long overdue. Thirty years we spent to arrive at the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.”
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☂️ Umbrella Group: “We called for more than a step forward and the world has stepped up. The message it sends is clear: all nations of the world have acknowledged that our future is in clean energy and the era of fossil fuels will end. The stocktake also shows we have a long way to go.”
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🍃 Africa Movement Building Space (African civil society group): “Proposing a transition away from fossil fuels may sound like a step in the right direction, a glimmer of hope amidst chaos. However, let us not underestimate the cunning tactics of fossil fuel giants and petrostates. They will cleverly disguise their products as ‘transitional’ fuels, especially in the most vulnerable corners of our world.”
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🇦🇪 A senior member of the UAE’s COP28 leadership team told us: “We have a consensus that the energy transition is irreversible. It is happening. The question now is how fast. And the fact that this happened in a country that is one of the largest oil and gas producers is a testament to the UAE’s role and diplomatic might in the world”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There’s been an intriguing debate playing out in the Intrigue community on WhatsApp, including folks on the ground in Dubai right now. (You can join the chat simply by sharing Intrigue with five friends using your unique referral link below!)
You might be wondering why all the fuss over two words – surely “phase down” and “transition away” are just different words for the same vague commitment to wean ourselves off fossil fuels at some point in the future.
There will be plenty of differing views on that question in the coming days, but if we could summarise our own experience in these kinds of diplomatic negotiations, we’d use this classic line by the late Desmond Tutu: “there’s only one way to eat an elephant: a bite at a time.”
Also worth noting:
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The 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands representative was not pleased that COP President Al Jaber seemingly gavelled the final decision while small island developing states were not in the room: “We must be honest: there has not been inclusion, the fact that this decision was gavelled [without discussion] is unacceptable.”
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇻🇳 Vietnam: Beijing and Hanoi have agreed to boost ties and pursue a “shared future” during Xi Jinping’s first visit in six years. Xi also wrote an op-ed for Vietnam’s main state newspaper, saying (in a veiled dig at the US) that “Asia’s future is in the hands of no one but Asians”.
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🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Parliament has voted in favour of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s revised plan to send certain migrants and asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The revised bill still has further legislative hurdles to clear, and comes after a British court struck down an earlier iteration.
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif will likely be able to contest elections in February after a court overturned his graft conviction. Sharif (previously leader for a total of nine years) spent four years in self-imposed exile and only returned to the country in October.
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🇬🇹 Guatemala: Outgoing president Alejandro Giammattei has criticised the US government’s plan to restrict visas for 300 Guatemalan nationals Washington says have been involved in anti-democratic acts. Giammettei says the restrictions amount to “intimidating actions.”
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🇰🇪 Kenya: President William Ruto announced yesterday that Kenya will scrap visa requirements for all foreign travellers starting from next month. Ruto had previously said in October that travellers from elsewhere in Africa could visit Kenya visa-free by year’s end.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What we’re reading about Ukraine’s EU membership bid
CHART OF THE DAY
Credits: UNODC.
Myanmar has overtaken Afghanistan as the world’s biggest producer of opium, according to a new report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. This comes after a Taliban crackdown on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, while a civil war continues to erode enforcement in Myanmar.
DAILY POLL
Do you think COP28 was a success? |
Yesterday’s poll: What's the 'hottest' flashpoint between China and the US?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇹🇼 Taiwan (43%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇵🇭 South China Sea (20%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇯🇵 East China Sea (2%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌊 Pacific Islands (2%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💻 Technological competition (19%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 Economic competition (12%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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🇹🇼 W.H.H: “All of these responses are incredibly intertwined, so it feels a bit disingenuous to pick one. That being said, Taiwan has the highest likelihood of leading to war.”
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🇵🇭 C: “Currently, the South China Sea is where virtually all interaction between the U.S. and China is happening. One mistake and things go south rather quickly.”
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📈 D.K: “Economic competition is the hottest now, but Taiwan is the most likely to lead to war.”
✏️ Corrections corner: We mistakenly marked Mexico in yesterday’s ‘Meanwhile, Elsewhere…’ map while referring to Cuba. ¡Perdón!