Plus: Map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Black Monday 2.0? |
2️⃣ Cambodia’s new base |
3️⃣ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. As we start another week with market jitters, indulge me this one palate-cleanser from a friend who was serving in a remote, developing part of the world when he was stunned to see his very humble local pizza spot suddenly advertising a new gourmet offering: a shrimp and avocado pizza.
My buddy couldn’t believe it, so went in to double check and yep, the cashier assured him they indeed now had a new shrimp and avocado pizza on the menu. Really? Yep.
So my pal duly ordered himself a shrimp and avocado pizza and the earnest cashier duly started sending the order back to the kitchen, before stopping herself: “oh, just one thing — we’re out of shrimp.”
Okay.
“And we’re out of avocado.”
So close. If I had to draw a link to today’s update on the latest market convulsions over the Trump tariffs, it’d be that sometimes things turn out exactly as you expect.
Markets shudder at Trump tariffs.
Taking their lead from the US weekend wobbles, various markets have opened the week way down, including Hong Kong (-13%), Singapore (-8%), Japan (-9%), China (-7%), Italy (-8%), and Australia (-6%). More on that below.
Bibi in DC.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has touched down in DC for a meeting with Trump at 1pm local time today (Monday), set to cover tariffs, Gaza, and beyond. Meanwhile, Israel’s military has now walked back its initial account of last month’s killing of 15 rescue workers in Gaza, after phone footage indicated the convoy was clearly marked.
Australia to re-take China-owned port?
Less than a month out from election day, Australia’s ruling Labor and conservative opposition parties have both pledged to re-take control of the Port of Darwin from Beijing-controlled Landbridge Group, which won a controversial 99-year lease in 2015.
South Korea sets new election date.
Seoul has tentatively set 3 June for Korea’s snap election to replace President Yoon Suk Yeol, after the country’s constitutional court confirmed his impeachment on Friday.
US revokes South Sudanese visas.
The US has revoked the visas of all South Sudanese nationals, arguing South Sudan has failed to accept the return of its own citizens in a timely manner.
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TOP STORY
Did Trump just trigger Black Monday 2.0?
While you might’ve spent your Sunday night watching an epic finale of The White Lotus, traders were glued to something just as wild playing out on their terminals: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and commodity futures all plunged again while folks traded a record 100 million options contracts (a classic hedge), spooking markets across Asia and Europe.
That’s all because whether it’s the oil and gas traders, JP Morgan number crunchers, or Polymarket prediction markets, folks are now seeing a US recession more likely this year as the world digests Trump’s bigger-than-expected tariffs.
So what's Trump saying?
Well that’s kinda the thing: markets are partly responding to what Trump and his team were already saying Sunday, framing his tariffs as necessary medicine, rejecting any pause until the broader US trade deficit is curbed, then tripling-down with a defiant tweet.
So as markets continue to wobble, it’s worth looking at three of the arguments Trump’s supporters are mounting:
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This crash is only hurting the elite
Treasury Secretary Bessent has highlighted Friday’s strong jobs numbers, while arguing 88% of stocks (inflated after years of easy money) are still in the hands of 10% of Americans. His point is regular Americans are more exposed to bonds (80% of households have debts). But of course, paying your debts gets harder when you’re out of a job, even if rates drop. And speaking of which…
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It’s about refinancing US debt
There’ve also been arguments (retweeted by Trump) that he’s gaming yields down so he can refinance US national debt at lower rates. But even if you refinance the $10T in US debt maturing this year, a recession will inevitably tank tax revenues and spike social security costs, making that annual $1T interest payment even harder. So maybe…
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It’s just a negotiation tactic
Bessent says 50 countries are already keen to talk, though we've only seen a handful in public like Vietnam, Thailand, Israel, Taiwan, and Cambodia. Meanwhile, top trade partners like China, the EU, and Canada are retaliating more than capitulating, and there just aren't enough Thailands or Cambodias to balance them out. The other things to keep in mind:
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a) Lots of countries now under US tariffs don't actually tariff the US, so it's unclear what they're supposed to offer to have the US tariffs removed, and
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b) There’s little incentive for foreign capitals to offer concessions, given all the speculation that this market reaction will force Trump to back-track unilaterally.
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It’s about reviving the US industrial heartland
Commerce Secretary Lutnick has argued firms will have to open factories in the US to keep reaching the vast US market. But there's also a risk executives will just quietly hit pause given all the volatility and recession risk. There are also questions around:
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a) Whether US workers want to assemble iPhones (Lutnick's example)
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b) If there are enough US workers (keen or not) to staff labour-intensive sectors
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c) How the US might source critical inputs still dominated by China, and
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d) Whether Americans would then want to pay ~$10k for a US-made iPhone.
Anyway, whatever you want to make of these arguments, the market ain't buying them right now. And that leaves Trump with a few options:
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Double down and risk owning the next US recession
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Announce a pause while US officials negotiate a face-saving off-ramp, and/or
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Fire top trade advisors like Lutnick or Navarro (he needs the Wall St darling Bessent to stick around, though there are rumours Bessent wants to quit).
Otherwise, these futures markets suggest we might be waking up to a Black Monday 2.0.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Back when Bessent was on Wall St, he assured his investors that Trump’s “tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged”. But that’s what’s now shocked markets: Trump has pulled the trigger, and not just at China, but also at allies and random bystanders (sorry Lesotho). And it wasn’t just a 10% pistol, but often a 30-40% bazooka.
So these historic rounds will now ricochet in some wild ways. For example, the scale of US-China tariffs is now so high, it's going to render an enormous chunk of US-China trade non-viable. That's going to send a wave of low-cost China-made goods washing over other markets like the EU in search of buyers, destabilising local economies further.
So Trump might’ve wanted to showcase US strength, but he might end up showcasing global fragility and interdependence instead.
Also worth noting:
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Goldman is shaving 0.7% off its 2025 US growth forecast just based on Trump’s China tariffs alone.
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High profile investor and Trump backer Bill Ackman has now warned of “self-induced economic nuclear winter”, and argues Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s defensive response to this crash is due to Lutnick’s firm being long on bonds.
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Vanguard has urged investors to hold tight rather than react “with tactical or short-term changes to well-considered investment plans.”
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Building on a visit by the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen last week, Brussels has now launched a $13B investment program into Central Asia. Its main priority is the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, as Europe continues to eye the region as a source of energy and raw materials.
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🇬🇧 UK: Israeli authorities have detained and deported two UK politicians, alleging they planned to “spread anti-Israel hatred.” Foreign Secretary David Lammy has described their deportation as “unacceptable, counterproductive, and deeply concerning”.
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🇰🇭 Cambodia: Prime Minister Hun Manet has inaugurated Cambodia’s newly expanded Ream Naval Base after years of China-led renovations. Cambodia continues to deny US allegations that China will use the base to bolster its vast claims over the South China Sea (claims rejected by an international tribunal).
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🇨🇷 Costa Rica: President Chaves has sent his justice and peace minister to learn from El Salvador’s tough approach that’s curbed local gang-led violence. Costa Rica, long seen as a regional safe-haven, now has homicide rates ~8 times higher than El Salvador, with authorities blaming organised crime.
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🇱🇾 Libya: A tariff-triggered plunge in global oil prices has pushed Libya’s central bank to devalue its currency by 13% amid high demand for foreign exchange. Libya is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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Indian authorities have arrested an American man after he tried to leave a can of Diet Coke for an un-contacted tribe on North Sentinel Island.
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Australia’s opposition leader has tried the unorthodox electoral campaign move of kicking a football at a cameraman’s head.
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Speaking of unorthodox political moves, it turns out a Polish presidential candidate once went in disguise on national TV to promote his own book.
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Meanwhile, a pair of 100-year-old Galapagos tortoises became first-time parents at the Philadelphia Zoo last week.
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And while we’re talking offspring, UK researchers have found that a drop in cash payments has helped reduce the number of children swallowing coins.
FLAG OF THE DAY
West Africa’s new Alliance of Sahel States (AES) recently dropped its new flag.
The bloc (led by the military juntas running Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) features the AES logo of an orange sun radiating over a sturdy baobab tree, with folks gathering underneath in a symbol of unity. And that sneaky little shape just above the tree? It’s an outline of the three combined territories, without the borders that once separated them.
Since seizing power in coups, the three neighbouring juntas have argued they’re moving away from colonial ties, and taking a tougher stance against various insurgencies, while citing support from Russia and its associated mercenaries.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Trump will back down from his tariffs? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think Trump's tariffs will strengthen the US?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💪 Yep, the world's been taking advantage for too long (16%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 Nope, this'll tank the US economy and its alliances (82%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👎 M.B: “Trust is lost — how can you negotiate with people who change their minds more than their socks.”
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🗳️ L.K: “The US is by far the biggest market in the world. No single soul is going to voluntarily miss out on that. Over the medium term, companies are going to produce more of their stuff in the US, which will increase salaries in the US and hurt export-oriented countries such as Germany and Japan.”
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✍️ K.P: “How patient will Americans be?”
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✍️ Corrections corner
Our thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out in last week’s Trump tariff briefing that it was Cambodia copping the 49% tariffs, while Malaysia got 24%.