Plus: Coat of arms of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Will Turkey’s arch-enemy lay down its arms? |
2️⃣ What’s going on with commodities |
3️⃣ Coat of arms of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I was at the Australian embassy in DC last night, speaking alongside Australia’s ambassador to the US (and former prime minister) Kevin Rudd for a fireside chat.
We’ll share a link to the recording when it’s ready, but for now I’ll pass on this nugget of wisdom from Rudd. When asked about his thoughts on the #vibes of the international order, he described his early years as a junior diplomat during the tail end of the Cold War, when the world faced multiple crises and looked uncertain. But fast forward just a few years — that conflict ended and the Berlin Wall fell.
Why do I share this, dear Intriguer? It’s to leave you with some sliver of optimism during these turbulent times. And with that, let’s dive into our top story today on a possible historic peace in Turkey.
Trump halts military aid to Ukraine.
The US president has suspended all security assistance to Ukraine, days after Friday’s disastrous meeting with Zelensky. Trump continues to pressure Ukraine (rather than its Russian occupiers) to make concessions in hopes of securing some kind of deal.
Canada and China retaliate as US tariffs hit.
New US tariffs kicked in today (Tuesday), including 25% on Canada and Mexico and another 20% on China. China is responding with additional 10-15% tariffs on US agriculture, while Canada has slapped 25% tariffs on an initial $30B worth of US goods, with another $125B to be hit if the US levies are still in place in 21 days. US and Asian stocks fell on the news. Mexico is expected to unveil its own response later today.
TSMC announces $100B investment in US.
The US president has announced the world’s leading chipmaker (Taiwan’s TSMC) is pledging to invest $100B in US manufacturing over the next few years. Trump has been arguing lately that Taiwan’s chip success has been at America’s expense.
Austria gets a new leader.
After months of deadlock, Austria has finally sworn in a new three-party government. Christian Stocker, leader of the Conservative People’s Party, has emerged as PM to govern alongside his centre-left and liberal coalition partners. The political manoeuvring is intended to keep the populist-right and Russia-friendly Freedom Party from power.
Arab states to present Gaza plan.
Several Arab states led by Egypt will present their proposal for Gaza’s post-war future today (Tuesday). An early draft suggests they might be proposing to replace Hamas with interim bodies jointly controlled by a steering board of Arab, Muslim, and Western states.
Japan battles biggest wildfire in decades.
Authorities have evacuated thousands as a wildfire — dubbed Japan’s worst in half a century — rages in the northeast.
TOP STORY
Did Turkey just make peace with its arch-enemy?
That’s Turkey’s Erdogan (foreground) and the PKK’s Öcalan (background)
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh off a string of diplomatic wins, just stepped up to the mic with a speech (🇹🇷) leaving even the most diligent of listeners winded. From reminding Europe about Turkey's long-stalled EU bid, to lecturing Israel on its regional moves, Erdogan really had a spring in his step.
And that’s no surprise given Erdogan might now be resolving Turkey’s longest-running conflict: the Kurdish question.
Here’s what you need to know.
Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued an historic order last Thursday calling on the group he founded to disband and disarm.
Just to clarify the magnitude of this call — the PKK has been fighting for what it’s variously described as more Kurdish autonomy for half a century, and Öcalan himself has been jailed on Imrali Island (off Istanbul) over treason charges since 1999. Turkey and several of its allies (including the US) have long listed the PKK as a terrorist organisation.
And sure, Öcalan has pushed for truces before, but this is the first time he’s explicitly called for the PKK to dissolve itself. You’ll forgive us for our ultra-flawed choice of analogy for illustrative purposes, but we would’ve been less startled if Ronald McDonald disbanded the Golden Arches.
It all started in October…
That’s when one of Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist allies shook hands with pro-Kurdish lawmakers in parliament, and really set rumours running that something was up.
But then a PKK attack on an arms manufacturer in Ankara flipped the table at home, and Assad’s ouster in neighbouring Syria (with its own large Kurdish presence) flipped the table for the broader region. And yet somehow, quiet talks continued, with pro-Kurdish figures generating more headlines when they visited the jailed Öcalan in January.
Then on Thursday, his emissaries emerged from another prison visit and read Öcalan’s historic 1.5-page statement aloud, broadcast live across the country. His key points?
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The PKK was born out of Turkey’s initial “denial of Kurdish reality”, but Turkey has since taken democratic steps to address those grievances, and so
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“All groups” (possibly including PKK offshoots across the region) must dissolve.
So, why now?
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Time: Ankara has hounded the group since the 80s, weakening a) its capabilities, b) its motivation, and therefore c) its ability to carve a Kurdish state out of Turkey
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Pressure: Ankara’s advanced drone and surveillance developments have isolated PKK cells in northern Iraq’s mountains, cutting off key supply routes, and
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Alliances: While neighbouring Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have enjoyed US backing against ISIS, recent US moves to pull back have limited a key source of international support for the Kurds.
So, will the PKK disband?
There are still generations of bad blood at play here, while Turkey’s pressure has contributed to PKK’s splintering into factions that may not all now agree to disband. Meanwhile, it’s also unclear what exactly the PKK leaders get in return.
And… why does this matter to anyone else?
For Europe… Intriguers will recall that when Sweden wanted to join NATO after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan tapped the brakes due to Sweden protecting certain Kurds.
But if these Turkish-Kurdish fundamentals improve, that source of leverage for Turkey could dry up, with Ankara instead focusing on supplying Europe’s defence ramp-up (in his same speech above, he described European security without Turkey as “unimaginable”).
For Washington… With the PKK potentially folding and the US-backed SDF weakened, Erdogan gets to rewrite the narrative. And while Europe and the US can grumble about his authoritarian vibes, they’ll still need him to run point in Syria, curb irregular immigration, and act as a bulwark against broader regional instability.
As for Erdogan himself?
Erdogan has kept a relatively low profile on this, letting his nationalist allies and state media do the heavy lifting. And of course, there are sceptics in both his and the PKK’s hardliner camps. But for now, Erdogan holds the cards, and might be on the cusp of achieving something his predecessors only dreamed of, while leaving behind a key source of criticism against Turkey generally and Erdogan specifically.
With all that at stake, it’s only a matter of time until Erdogan emerges to claim full credit.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Of course, it’s not all Efes beer and baklava for Erdogan.
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The Turkish lira keeps sliding, putting pressure on his popular support
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Arguably Turkey’s most popular journalist (Nevşin Mengü) just got slapped with a suspended jail sentence for merely interviewing a Kurdish leader, and
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Abroad, Israel is pushing Syria to stop the Turks from building more bases.
And yet still, no one at home realistically dares to say anything. That all contributes to an information space where it’s hard to really tell how folks feel about this possible historic moment with the PKK, and whether it’ll deliver the domestic win Erdogan wants.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: Judges on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have elected their own Yuji Iwasawa (a citizen of Japan and former law professor) as the ICJ’s new president. The appointment is just to complete the term of the court’s former president Nawaf Salam, who left in January to become Lebanon’s prime minister.
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🇬🇧 UK: The British data protection watchdog has launched an investigation into whether TikTok misuses information on children to serve them up inappropriate or harmful personalised content. Authorities will also look into popular forum Reddit and image-sharing platform Imgur.
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🇲🇲 Myanmar: The head of Myanmar’s military junta is in Russia for an official visit including talks with Vladimir Putin. Russia has (along with China) long been a top arms supplier to Myanmar, and has moved to fill the diplomatic void since the West downgraded local ties following the junta’s 2021 military coup.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: The US Supreme Court is today (Tuesday) due to hear opening arguments as Mexico seeks $10B in damages from US gun manufacturers for the havoc caused by Mexican cartels using US weapons. The case has emerged as a bargaining chip between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum, with Sheinbaum warning she could expand the suit.
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🇨🇩 DR Congo: President Felix Tshisekedi has seemingly taken a page out of his Ukrainian counterpart’s book, offering mineral deals to the US and EU in exchange for their intervention in the region’s ongoing conflict. The DRC military has recently lost ground to the M23 rebel group backed by neighbouring Rwanda.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
How the Hollywood-China love affair went south
Face-Off: U.S. vs. China takes an inside look at the turbulent relationship between the world’s two superpowers, the two men in charge, and the vital issues that affect us all. In this week’s episode, host Jane Perlez describes the love affair between Hollywood and China, and how it went south. We love this podcast, and so will you.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s going on in commodities
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Coal: The world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia, has moved to wrest pricing control back from independent agencies, triggering higher prices and frustration from Indonesia’s largest buyer (China).
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Listings: Toronto’s status as the world’s top mining hub could be under threat, with insiders pointing to industry consolidation, tougher fundraising conditions, and tighter government rules on foreign investment.
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Timber: Donald Trump has directed federal agencies to examine ways to source more timber locally, partly as a way to reduce US dependence on Canada (America’s top supplier) for what’s a critical housing input.
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Copper: Trump’s commerce department is also investigating whether to slap tariffs on copper imports, citing familiar national security justifications.
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Oil: Libya’s state oil company has just announced its first oil and gas exploration tender since 2008.
COAT OF ARMS OF THE DAY
We’re not sure who’s more surprised, dear Intriguer: us or the salmon.
Featuring a startled-looking fish with antlers, the coat of arms of the Finnish municipality of Inari is definitely a conversation starter. Maybe bring it along on your next first date. The mythical-looking creature is a visual representation of the importance of both salmon fishing and reindeer herding in the very north of Finland, and we’re all for it.
Intrigue’s rating: 9.7/10.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Turkey's peace at home will bolster its standing abroad? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about the Trump-Zelensky-Vance argument in the Oval Office?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧘 Zelensky should've kept his cool and showed more respect — his country depends on US support (15%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😮 Trump and Vance went too far on Zelensky, while still silent on Putin (79%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
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😮 A.S: “This was clearly an ambush that Zelenskyy could not have avoided, not by wearing a suit, nor by acting more deferential. Trump wanted an excuse to justify cutting aid to Ukraine, painting Zelensky as ungrateful when he is anything but.”
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🧘 W.G: “Other leaders have sat in that chair through uncomfortable speeches by Trump (ie. King Abdullah). Zelensky should have learned from them, held his tongue, and gone back to Kyiv with a win.”
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✍️ C.D.B: “Lindsay Graham gave Zelensky good advice about how to handle that meeting, which he chose not to follow. Either he can’t read the room or feels he doesn’t have to, or he intentionally alienated the U.S. administration to galvanize support elsewhere.”
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✍️ B.T: “This was not a negotiation—it was an attempt to force Zelensky into accepting terms beneficial to the US but potentially fatal for Ukraine.”
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