:root {–wt-primary-color: #2D2DC8;–wt-text-on-primary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-secondary-color: #F9FAFB;–wt-text-on-secondary-color: #030712;–wt-tertiary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-tertiary-color: #222222;–wt-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-background-color: #222222;–wt-subscribe-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color: #222222;–wt-header-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto,”Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-body-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-button-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-border-radius: 8px}.bg-wt-primary { background-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.text-wt-primary { color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.border-wt-primary { border-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-primary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-primary { color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-primary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.bg-wt-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.text-wt-secondary { color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.border-wt-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-secondary { color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-tertiary { color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-tertiary { color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-background { background-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.text-wt-background { color: var(–wt-background-color); }.border-wt-background { border-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.bg-wt-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.rounded-wt { border-radius: var(–wt-border-radius); }.wt-header-font { font-family: var(–wt-header-font); }.wt-body-font { font-family: var(–wt-body-font); }.wt-button-font { font-family: var(–wt-button-font); }input:focus { –tw-ring-color: transparent !important; }li a { word-break: break-word; }@media only screen and (max-width:667px) {.mob-stack {display: block !important;width: 100% !important;}.mob-w-full {width: 100% !important;}}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmWUlfBBc4AMP6lQ.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOjCnqEu92Fr1Mu51TzBic6CsTYl4BO.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOmCnqEu92Fr1Mu4mxKKTU1Kg.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOkCnqEu92Fr1Mu51xIIzIXKMny.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiByp8kv8JHgFVrLCz7Z1xlFd2JQEk.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiDyp8kv8JHgFVrJJLmy15VF9eOYktMqg.woff2’) format(‘woff2′);}.table-base, .table-c, .table-h { border: 1px solid #C0C0C0; }.table-c { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-c p { color: #2D2D2D; font-family:’Helvetica’,Arial,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }.table-h { padding:5px; background-color:#F1F1F1; }.table-h p { color: #2A2A2A; font-family:’Trebuchet MS’,’Lucida Grande’,Tahoma,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }
Hi Intriguer. Access to the ocean is crucial, and not just for my summer vacation. For example, over 80% of the world’s goods are traded over water, and two of the most powerful nations in modern history – the UK and the US – project(ed) their power by ruling the waves.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Safe to say, the 44 landlocked countries in the world would bite your hand off for access to their nearest ocean.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Today’s top story is how one of those countries – Ethiopia – just cut a bold deal to get access to the Gulf of Aden through a breakaway region of Somalia. The international community has uniformly opposed the agreement, but Ethiopia’s PM described it as “out of the box thinking.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
TODAY’S NEWS
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Blinken lands in Israel. The US Secretary of State is expected to meet with Israeli leaders today to discuss Gaza’s future governance and contain escalations on Israel’s northern border. On Monday, an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah commander, and sources tell us that strikes against targets in Syria have been accelerating at an “unprecedented” pace.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
French Prime Minister resigns. Elisabeth Borne’s departure on Monday comes ahead of a widely expected cabinet reshuffle from President Macron, whose popularity has been dented by recent protests and legislative defeats. Borne’s replacement will be announced later today.
Taiwanese presidential hopeful accuses China of interference. Lai Ching-te, the ruling party candidate, told media “China meddles every time Taiwan holds elections, but this time it is the most serious we have ever seen”. Hours later, mobile users received an ‘air raid alert’ when a Chinese satellite flew over southern Taiwan’s airspace.
Ecuador announces state of emergency over runaway gangster. The country’s authorities are searching for the drug kingpin, who escaped from his maximum security prison on Sunday. The inmate, nicknamed ‘Fito’, is suspected of being involved in the assassination of an Ecuadorian presidential candidate last year.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Boeing takes a tumble. United Airlines discovered loose bolts during inspections of its Boeing 737 Max 9s, the plane model which recently lost a door during an Alaska Airlines flight. Boeing and its supplier Spirit AeroSystems saw their shares fall by 8% and 11% on Monday.
TOP STORY
Somalia nullifies Ethiopia’s bold gambit to gain access to the Gulf of Aden
Credits: The Economist
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced on Sunday he had nullified a memorandum of understanding signed on 1 January between landlocked Ethiopia and the breakaway Somaliland region of Somalia.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The deal purports to grant Ethiopia 50 years of access to the port of Berbera and a leased military base in exchange for international recognition of Somaliland as an independent country and an unspecified share of Ethiopian Airlines.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The Somalian President warned, “[Ethiopia] will not be able to grab a portion of the independent Somali territory, and we will take all necessary measures to defend it.” Somalia has also recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia in protest.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Here’s what each side is after:
-
Ethiopia succinctly laid out its interests in a press release: “The MOU gives Ethiopia the chance to obtain a permanent and reliable naval base […] in the Gulf of Aden.” The country has been landlocked since Eritrea declared independence in 1993 and has been trying to regain sea access ever since.
-
Somaliland is desperate for international recognition of its independence in the hope of increasing foreign trade and aid. Despite being relatively peaceful and stable, it is extremely poor.
-
And finally, Somalia is determined to defend its territorial integrity and prevent an independent Somaliland. But just as importantly, it wants to prevent Ethiopia from gaining a naval base on the Red Sea.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Unfortunately for Somaliland, no country recognises its independence, which is why the international reaction has firmly supported Somalia’s position.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The US said it “recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia [over Somaliland].” The African Union, the EU, Turkey, and Egypt also released statements of support for Somalia.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Prime Minister Abiy clearly sees ocean access as a critical national interest. Or, as he put it, “a population of 150 million can’t live in a geographic prison.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But this deal is diplomatically outrageous. Imagine if Mexico, without consulting Washington D.C., cut a deal with Texas and Louisiana to access a military base on the Mississippi River.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
At this point, it’s unlikely this deal will ever happen, but the damage to Ethiopia-Somalia relations is already done.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Also worth noting:
-
In a 45-minute speech last year, Ethiopian PM Abiy stated that the issue of access to the Gulf of Aden “will either bring in Ethiopia’s development or bring about its demise.”
SUPPORTED BY SCALE AI
Donovan is the AI-powered digital staff officer for foreign affairs, intelligence, and defense.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Donovan enables officers and analysts to achieve mission-critical outcomes more quickly by using AI and large language models (LLMs) to search large volumes of unstructured data and rapidly uncover insights from documents such as cables, SITREPS, and imagery.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Donovan interoperates with the leading LLMs to synthesize information and generate reports, while deployed securely in government and classified environments.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Free 30-day trial available for verified government users.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇨🇳 China: Over 1100 Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba and ByteDance, are spearheading China’s attendance at CES2024 in Las Vegas this week. That’s more than twice the number of Chinese firms that attended last year, perhaps reflecting Beijing’s shifting stance towards the US.
-
🇪🇺 EU: European Council President Charles Michel unexpectedly announced he will run in the 2024 European Parliamentary elections. Michel would give up his current role if elected, and EU rules state that unless the 27 EU member states agree on his replacement before June, Hungary’s Victor Orban will assume the presidency.
-
🇮🇩 Indonesia: The third presidential debate on Sunday saw all three candidates tackle defence and foreign policy issues, including how to approach territorial disputes in the South China Sea. More than 204 million people are eligible to vote in the presidential election on 14 Feb, which the Jakarta Post has called “the most crucial in Indonesia’s democratic history.”
-
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Two US F-16 fighter jets flew over Bosnia yesterday as a warning against “secessionist activity” by Serbs in the north of the country. The pro-secessionist Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, has vowed to tear Bosnia apart so the Serb-controlled regions can rejoin Serbia.
-
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: The Zimbabwe dollar has plummeted over 40% over the past year, and was trading at Z$10,900 per US dollar yesterday. Despite efforts to stabilise the currency since its 2019 reintroduction, many Zimbabweans still prefer to use US dollars.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world tweeted/X’d about:
-
🇬🇧 Britons tweeted about their ‘Post Office’ as lawmakers work to clear the names of hundreds of wrongfully convicted Post Office workers caught in the crossfires of an IT error.
-
🇲🇽 ‘Ernestina Godoy’ was trending in Mexico after the Mexico City Congress declined to reconfirm her as Attorney General.
-
🇫🇮 Finnish Alpine sports fans were talking about the #TourdeSki, a cross-country ski race. American Jessie Diggins and Norway’s Harald Oestberg Amundsen brought home the gold medals.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credit: @feelingantsy via Twitter/X
Not EU-r wieners
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Some UK consumers have been unimpressed with a new label warning shoppers that certain items were “Not for EU.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Politico reported that customers were upset to see that their products were produced to lower standards. Or, as one customer wrote: “I’d hate to think [the milk] is ‘special’ Brexit milk that’s not safe for Europeans.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The label’s actual purpose is to prevent tariff-free meat and dairy products from crossing the porous Northern Ireland-Ireland border and into the EU.
DAILY POLL
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Do you think landlocked nations should be granted sea access by their neighbours? |
Yesterday’s poll: How probable is a wider war in the Middle East?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚨 Very likely (21%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😨 Likely (56%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙏 Unlikely (20%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤞 Very unlikely (2%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (0.3%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Your two cents:
-
😨 D.G.H: “Seems to be what Iran wants…”
-
😨 M.L: “Sadly, the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza have only entrenched opposition against them. While I don’t think most people want to see the conflict widen, cooler heads are unlikely to prevail sadly.”
-
🙏 A.B: “I think overwhelming US pressure on all sides, ranging from Turkey to Qatar to Israel, will put a stop to any adventurism from any one side. A weakened Iran is also another reason for things to likely settle down in the medium term.”