Number of the day

17.8% 

That’s China’s official youth unemployment rate in July, up from 14.5% in June as millions of newly graduated students join the job market.

Another day, another summit

President Trump has now followed up Friday’s Alaska summit by hosting Ukraine’s Zelensky and a phalanx of European leaders (with a Putin phone call along the way).

So here are the four lines you need to know

1. “I think as a follow-up we would need probably a quadrilateral meeting, because when we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent” — Emmanuel Macron, President, France 🇫🇷

Foreign diplomats around DC whisper that President Trump plays good cop with foes and leaves his advisors to play bad cop (it’s vice-versa for allies). But a diplomat with one of the visiting leaders told us a similar strategy is now emerging in Europe’s response:

• Some, like the UK’s Starmer, Italy’s Meloni, NATO’s Rutte, and Finland’s Stubbs, play good cop, using public bonhomie to create space for a more private push

• Others, like France’s Macron, play the bad cop, drawing Trump’s occasional ire with public declarations like the one above.

But Macron isn’t alone…

2. "I can’t imagine that the next meeting will take place without a ceasefire, so let’s work on that" — Friedrich Merz, Chancellor, Germany 🇩🇪

Germany’s Merz often joins Macron out in front, though it’s unclear if Trump heard this ceasefire push: instead, Trump announced the next step is a Putin-Zelensky summit. Why?

3. “I don’t think we need a ceasefire” — Donald Trump, President, United States 🇺🇸

We’ve flagged the debate around starting with a ceasefire versus straight to a peace agreement. In short, many argue skipping the ceasefire just helps Putin, as it forces Ukraine to negotiate under fire, while bogging the West down in Putin’s ‘root causes’.

But the White House is arguing Trump’s recent deals (Azerbaijan-Armenia, DRC-Rwanda, India-Pakistan) have all skipped ceasefires, and he’s pledging Russo-Ukraine will be next.

As for the terms? President Trump is again pushing Ukraine to cede more turf, and that’s nudging Merz and Macron to play bad cop again: nothing about Europe without Europe.

But Trump doesn’t seem moved, reiterating we’ll have to get a deal “as they fight”. 

4. “Security guarantees… must really be very practical, delivering protection on land, in the air, and at sea, and must be developed with Europe’s participation” — Volodymyr Zelensky, President, Ukraine 🇺🇦

Zelensky has clearly bounced back from *that* last Oval Office meeting, this time rocking a sharp suit, plenty of gratitude, some good jokes (he’s an ex-comedian after all), and even a personal letter from Ukraine’s first lady to Melania Trump.

And while he avoided pushing back with the cameras rolling, he wasn’t afraid to reiterate a point he’s been making since before Putin invaded: without real security guarantees for Ukraine, there’s nothing stopping Putin from just regrouping and re-attacking.

But interestingly, when later speaking to Ukrainian journalists in DC, Zelensky seemed relieved by whatever assurances he got from President Trump: “I can’t go into details, but it’s important that a political decision has been made.” Word is it might entail a Ukrainian pledge to buy (with European finance) $100B in US weapons.

Intrigue’s Take

Trump has long been open about the fact he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, but that’s up to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which is appointed by the Norwegian parliament, which is of course elected by the Norwegian people.

And while polling suggests folks in Norway are mindful of managing ties with Russia, there’s no sympathy for Putin’s expansionism or war-mongering. So it’s hard to see the committee rewarding a deal that in turn rewards Putin’s aggression.

And sure, there’ve been Nobel prizes after territorial concessions, but they’re hardly encouraging in context: Teddy Roosevelt became America’s first laureate in 1906 for mediating an end to the Russia-Japan war, but those land concessions just helped fuel grievances that bubbled over into WWII, and Stalin ended up taking it all back (and more).

Ditto, the French and German foreign ministers shared the 1926 prize for the Locarno Treaties, but those territorial details (and omissions) likewise tugged at loose ends that ended up unravelling back into WWII. The 1978 Camp David Accords are a little more encouraging (Israel and Egypt are still speaking), though Sadat and Begin got their prizes after a genuine (if painful) negotiation, more than some raw, imposed coercion.

So maybe one lesson from history is that, unless a treaty addresses the actual root causes (Putin’s imperialism), there’s a risk it just ushers in yet another brief Locarno honeymoon.

Sound even smarter:

• The Ukrainians also used this latest DC summit to bring up Russia’s seizure of ~20,000 Ukrainian children, including a young girl (Margarita) now held by Russian parliamentarian and Putin ally, Sergey Mironov.

• Ukraine also just unveiled a new ‘flamingo’ missile claiming a 3,000km (1860mi) range, while its drones just hit Russia’s major Druzhba gas artery into Europe, halting supplies to Kremlin-friendly Hungary and Slovakia (who aren’t happy).

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Director, Protective Intelligence @ Major League Baseball in New York

• Transport and Energy Policy Officer @ BEUC in Brussels

• Geopolitical Intelligence Intern @ Insight Forward in the US (remote)

• Supply Chain Finance Manager @ Kraft Heinz in São Paolo

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Joke of the day

It’s one thing to learn another language. But to then be funny in it? Uffff.

So we were delighted to see language-learning gurus (and Intrigue sponsors!) Babbel mark the Edinburgh Fringe Festival by inviting foreign ambassadors in the UK to submit their favourite national jokes. Some of the gems come from…

• 🇧🇷 Brazil: Our country has two seasons: summer… and elections.

• 🇸🇰 Slovakia: What do Slovaks do when they finally beat England at football? They turn off the PlayStation and go to sleep. And…

• 🇨🇭 Switzerland: What’s the best thing about living in Switzerland? Well, the flag is a big plus.

You can check out the whole collection here.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think will come of [Monday’s] US summit with Ukraine / Europe?

🤔 President Trump respects several of these leaders; he'll rethink his approach (18%)
😠 Trump is losing patience and will double-down against Ukraine (74%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (8%)

Your two cents:

• 🤔 K.P.M: “One can only hope. So far, he's been only too willing to cede Ukrainian territory to reward the aggressor for its violations of international law and human rights. Frankly, Trump has shown little strength in these negotiations.”

• 😠 C.O: “Arguments compel Trump – but he is not in control of the outcomes. He’s in a weird zone where peace at any cost is cool with him- but not the warring parties.”

• ✍️ G: “It lands in the middle somewhere. Everyone needs to give in somehow to make it work. But at what point does Trump just let go and have EU figure it out themselves?”