Plus: map of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 5 lines from Trump’s inauguration address |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. The world moves in narratives, and as Trump returns to office, it’s worth reflecting on a big one: that the US is in decline. It’s a narrative that’s long shaped thinking not only in DC, but also in Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, and beyond.
So agree or not, it’s also worth looking at the counter-narratives, one of which was forcefully put by US political scientist Michael Beckley earlier this month in an essay called The Strange Triumph of a Broken America. Sure, he’s clear-eyed about America’s challenges, but he also lays out some durable US strengths: the US share of the global economy, for example, is still the same as it was way back in the 1990s, at 26%.
Essentially, Beckley argues that both America’s strengths and challenges stem from the US experiment itself: eg, he suggests it’s America’s decentralised political system that not only permits its raucous politics, but also its world-leading economy.
Anyway, that’s on my mind today as Donald Trump declares America’s next golden age.
Trump signs flurry of executive orders.
The new US president has signed scores of executive orders including to begin the US withdrawal from both the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, declare a national emergency at the southern border, grant TikTok a 75-day extension on its sell-or-ban ultimatum, declare America First foreign and trade policies, pause US development aid abroad for a review, and reject the OECD’s global tax arrangements.
Houthis to end Red Sea attacks, except against Israel.
Now that an Israel-Hamas deal is in place, the Yemen-based Houthis say they’ll halt their attacks against foreign ships passing through the Red Sea, though will still target Israeli vessels and could ramp their broader attacks back up if the West intervenes again. The group is still holding 25 seafarers hostage from the car carrier, Galaxy Leader.
Marco Rubio confirmed as secretary of state.
The US Senate has unanimously confirmed Florida senator Marco Rubio as the next secretary of state, and Trump’s first confirmed cabinet member.
TSMC evacuates factories due to earthquake.
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake shook Taiwan earlier today (Tuesday), prompting chipmaker TSMC to evacuate some of its factories.
TOP STORY
Five quotes from Trump’s inaugural address
As a polar vortex swept across America’s east coast, a sized-down audience shifted indoors for the first presidential inauguration in the Capitol Rotunda since Reagan.
That’s where Trump then gave his inaugural address, featuring five lines that could offer a glimpse into his intended approach to the rest of the world. So let’s dive in —
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"The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation — one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations, and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons"
That expansionist line is the bit that’s now echoing through a few foreign capitals, coming after Trump’s recent musings on Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal.
But it was only Panama that then got a specific mention, with Trump warning that “China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” He’s likely referring to the Hong Kong-based firm (Hutchison) managing the ports that serve as the canal’s entry and exit — in 2021, Panama extended Hutchison’s lease until 2047 despite Western unease about the firm’s ties to Beijing.
It’s unclear what Trump means by taking the canal back, but there are clues from Trump 1.0 when the US pressured Panama to block construction of China’s new embassy overlooking the canal — i.e., maybe we’ll see US pressure on Panama to unwind Hutchison’s role under the guise of upholding the canal’s neutrality.
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"We have a government that has given unlimited funding to the defense of foreign borders but refuses to defend American borders"
A twofer: Trump is referring here both to Biden’s support for Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia, plus the millions of undocumented migrants who arrived on Biden’s watch.
While there are unknowns around the implementation, Trump is directionally clear on now wanting a tougher approach on unlawful migration. But Trump’s direction is less clear on Ukraine, and that arguably reflects the different US ‘tribes’ that Trump managed to unite behind his candidacy: isolationists, prioritisers, and primacists.
His new under-secretary for defense (Colby) is a prioritiser, arguing Europe should lead on Ukraine so the US can focus on China. Meanwhile, Trump’s secretary of state (Rubio) and national security advisor (Waltz) are primacists valuing US leadership abroad, though both leaned more ‘prioritiser’ in the campaign. And you could describe Trump’s nominee for chief spy (Gabbard) as an isolationist, though it’s unclear if she’ll survive confirmation.
Which way will Trump himself lean? US allies in Europe sound hopeful he won’t want to risk his own ‘Kabul’ moment in Ukraine, landing him instead somewhere between primacist and prioritiser. But France’s Macron isn’t taking any chances, again urging Europe to really, but seriously this time, get real on its own defence.
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"Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens"
Tariffs are trending harder than a Wirkin bag right now, and while a debate plays out around what this means for growth, Trump is staying on brand. His address didn’t mention Canada, and only made a brief migration reference to Mexico, but he later told reporters he plans to enact his 25% tariffs on both neighbours by February 1st (rather than on day one).
This could be his classic ‘threaten then negotiate’ approach again, but neither Canada nor Mexico are taking chances — Canada’s PM and provincial leaders, for example, just spent a day strategising on possible responses. Meanwhile, there’s no word on Trump’s next tariffs on China, which only got name-dropped in the above Panama Canal context.
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"We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into"
That bolded bit really comes down to Trump’s motto of peace through strength, but the entire line is probably an appeal to those same three US tribes above: the battles we win (primacists), the battles we end (prioritisers), and the wars we avoid (isolationists).
Trump also says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker. And while he doesn’t mention Israel or the Saudis, you can bet he’ll prioritise his Abraham Accord talks to normalise their ties, the ultimate prize. But you can also bet the Saudis will bargain hard.
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“We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world.”
Trump got a round of applause for vowing to bring back a “drill, baby, drill!“ mindset. And it didn’t take him long to make it official, quickly signing executive orders including one to (again) withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, and another promising to peel back Biden’s Green New Deal as a step towards “unleashing American energy”.
Trump then wrapped it all up the same way he started: declaring a new US golden age.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
In relative terms, Trump’s inaugural address didn’t say much about foreign policy at all. Some have suggested this reflects an isolationist bent, though there’s every chance it just reflects his target audience (a domestic-focused base) more than his intent.
The other thing to consider is who was attending, and there’s no surprise he finds common cause with many of them, including populists like Italy’s Meloni and Argentina’s Milei. We were more intrigued, however, to see two other faces:
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The appearance by Georgia’s pro-West figurehead president Salome Zourabichvili suggests Trump may have sympathy for the mass protests against her country’s Russia-friendly PM, and
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Venezuela’s winning presidential candidate Edmundo González was there too, leaving us wondering at the extent to which Trump may now go to oust the autocrat Nicolás Maduro who just re-inaugurated himself instead.
Also worth noting:
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The audience also included the richest citizens of France (LVMH’s Bernard Arnault) and India (Reliance’s Mukesh Ambani), plus Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Apple’s Tim Cook, and X’s Elon Musk.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to give his first speech today (Tuesday).
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: Well, that’s awkward… North Korea has denied claims by Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko about Pyongyang supposedly reaching out to set up a top-level summit. Kim Jong-Un’s sister and top official, Kim Yo-jong, has instead encouraged Belarus to “clarify its intention correctly”.
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🇨🇾 Cyprus: The leaders of Greek and Turkish Cyprus have announced they both support opening new checkpoints across the 1974 ceasefire line to accommodate popular demand. The island has been split since the 1974 Turkish invasion, which followed a coup attempt sponsored by Greece’s then ruling junta.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: ASEAN foreign ministers have travelled to Malaysia over the weekend for the bloc’s first meeting of the year. Their agenda looks the same as last time, and the time before that: Myanmar’s civil war, and China’s vast claims across the South China Sea.
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🇨🇴 Colombia: President Petro has vowed war against Colombia’s leftist National Liberation Army guerrillas after their attacks on rival communities left more than 100 people dead. It’s a setback for the president (himself a former guerrilla), who has staked his political fortunes on achieving “total peace”.
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🇳🇬 Nigeria: The national statistics bureau has announced plans to rebase Nigeria’s GDP and inflation data to more accurately represent a changing economy. The last time Nigeria rejigged its data like this was in 2014, and the result was Nigeria leapfrogging to become Africa’s largest economy — it could be part of an effort to attract more foreign investment.
FROM OUR FRIENDS AMERICA EXPLAINED
Understand the Trump Era Better with America Explained
Yesterday was inauguration day in the United States. If the chaos around the new president sometimes leaves you dazed, check out America Explained – a newsletter which drills down to what's essential, written by Andrew Gawthorpe, a former government official turned full-time analyst of U.S. politics and foreign policy.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move:
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🇧🇩 Bangladeshi foreign affairs advisor Touhid Hossain is in China for a four-day visit.
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🇮🇹 Italian envoy Antonio Tajani just separately met both Israel’s foreign minister and the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, becoming the first senior visitor since Sunday’s Israel-Hamas deal kicked in.
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🇨🇳 China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang is (like our very own Helen) in Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum, alongside others like Syria’s newly minted foreign minister.
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And 🇮🇩 Indonesian leader Prabowo Subianto will visit India to meet PM Narendra Modi this weekend.
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: @vajranen via reddit.
In case you were wondering, it turns out the world’s most common passport colours are black, blue, green, and red (or maroon if you’re fancy).
But notice those two splashes of baby blue? One (Indonesia) is in the process of swapping out for a more classic red and white passport, in a shout-out to its flag. The other? That’s Kazakhstan, which flag enthusiasts might recall has the same colour on its own banner, representing pure sky, peace, and prosperity.
DAILY POLL
Which 'tribe' do you think will most shape Trump's approach to the world? |
Yesterday’s poll: Are you in favour or against a TikTok ban?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 In favour – a US rival shouldn't control US speech (78%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👎 Against – this goes too far (17%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
Your two cents:
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👍 P.M: “So long as China controls TikTok from the shadows, I approve of the ban. If China divests its ‘golden share’ and control, I disapprove of the ban.”
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👎 O: “We have to trust that a free market will ensure that there are competitive apps that will share real info (so TikTok can't get away if they try to push fake news) and that broadly people will ultimately make rational judgement and decisions, even if there are algorithms that attempt to influence them.”
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✍️ P.V: “Protect us equally from ALL the apps that violate our privacy and manipulate our discourse.”
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