🌍 French lawmakers push EU to designate Wagner Group as terrorists

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇬🇪 Georgia: Georgia's pro-EU president (a largely ceremonial role) has slammed Russia’s announcement that it’ll soon resume direct flights with Georgia. Moscow had suspended the services in response to anti-Russia protests in 2019.

2. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: Protests against this week’s arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have left at least eight dead and thousands detained. Khan pleaded not guilty to corruption charges yesterday (Wednesday).

3. 🇪🇨 Ecuador: On Tuesday, Ecuador announced it had converted $1.6B in debt into a nature conservation loan. This ‘debt for nature’ swap is the largest ever, and will be used to protect the Galapagos Islands from erosion and overfishing.

4. 🇸🇳 Senegal: Protests continued in the capital Dakar on Wednesday in response to a court ruling against a top opposition presidential candidate. Some worry President Macky Sall will defy Senegalese law and run for a third term next year.

5. 🇧🇬 Bulgaria: A sitting EU commissioner, Mariya Gabriel, has been tapped by Bulgaria’s leading party to try and form a governing coalition back home. The party won a plurality of votes in last month’s election but hasn’t managed to get the numbers in parliament to form a government.

🇪🇺 EU | SECURITY

France pushes EU to list Wagner as a terrorist group

Briefly: The French parliament passed a resolution designating Russian mercenary group Wagner a terrorist organisation on Tuesday (9 May). Now, it’s calling on the European Union to do the same.

Wagner Group has gained notoriety via the Russo-Ukraine War, but it’s also fought in places like Syria and Mali, where it’s been accused of war crimes.

And the EU has piled sanctions on Wagner already, but placing the organisation on the same level as ISIS and al-Qaeda would mean:

• 🚓 Membership of Wagner would become a criminal offence

• 💰 Wagner’s financial assets could be frozen by any EU country

• 👔 EU firms would be barred from doing business with the group, and

• 🙅‍♀️ Wagner clients (including governments) could be sanctioned

Intrigue’s take: But would any of this make a material difference? Maybe.

For Ukraine, blacklisting Wagner would be a show of moral support: its troops wouldn’t just be defending themselves against an invading force, but against terrorists too.

For Wagner’s clients in parts of Africa, the threat of sanctions might encourage governments to ditch their Russian mercenaries. This could shrink Wagner’s revenue, but would irritate some African leaders already wary of European meddling.

And some observers have also queried whether it’s all worth the risk of further escalation with Russia.

Also worth noting:

• Britain will designate Wagner as a terrorist organisation “imminently”. In the US, debate continues on whether to follow suit.

• The French call to blacklist Wagner comes after Wagner fighters replaced French troops in former French colonies like Mali and Burkina Faso.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by World Politics Review

🚶 LATIN AMERICA | MIGRATION

Record numbers of migrants cross the Darien Gap

Briefly: Irregular migrant crossings through the Darien Gap, a lawless jungle region straddling Colombia and Panama, soared in April to 40,297. That’s a six-fold increase from last year, and way up from the 500 crossings in all of 2010.

Migrants with means can pay thousands for a coyote to help make the 100km journey. Otherwise, a drug cartel charges $400 just to enter the Gap, then folks risk getting lost in mountains, swept away in rivers, or being attacked by bandits.

It’s then a 4,000km journey across another half dozen countries to reach the US.

Intrigue’s take: Title 42, a US pandemic-era policy that deterred some migrants, will end tonight (Thursday). So the US, Colombia, and Panama launched a campaign last month to try and process migrants before they reach the Gap.

But April’s record migrant crossings suggest the campaign ain’t working.

The local cartel (The Demons) stands to make around $200M this year just from charging an entrance fee. So there’s a strong incentive to keep misleading folks both about the journey ahead plus US migration policy at the end of the line.

And that’s before we even look at why people are leaving home in the first place.

Also worth noting:

• It’s called the Darien ‘Gap’ because it’s the only gap in the Pan-American Highway that stretches from Alaska to the southern tip of South America.

• Venezuelans account for the majority of Darien Gap crossings, but migrants also hail from places like China, Angola, and Uzbekistan.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

What we’re reading about energy innovation.

• Ocean power is the final renewable energy frontier

• Microsoft just made a huge bet on nuclear fusion

• Long popular in Asia, floating solar catches on in US

• The long-duration energy storage dilemma

🎖️ INSIGNIA OF THE DAY

New Zealand’s Air Force roundel, the insignia applied to military aircraft, is nearly identical to the UK roundel but for one important detail. In the New Zealand version you’ll find a Kiwi, which is a flightless bird. Gotta love that Kiwi humour.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think the tit-for-tat between Canada and China means?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙅‍♀️ Nothing, countries expel diplomats all the time (18%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤷 China got caught out, but the impact will be minimal (58%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📉 China-Canada ties are bad and will get much worse (23%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🤷 R.I: “The economic upside for both parties is too great to allow this to escalate further.”

• 🖋️ T.F: “[…] it seems like political posturing from the Canadian government to counter criticism of its tepid response to foreign interference claims.”