🌍 Georgian government withdraws foreign agents bill after protests

Hi there Intriguer. The Swiss love neutrality like a French Horn loves a fist. But that doesn't mean they'll sit idly up in the alps while you mess with their chocolate. Just ask Toblerone, which is losing its Swiss-themed packaging as it moves production to Slovakia. As the ol' saying goes, if it ain’t Swiss, give it a miss (okay we just made that up).

Today’s edition is a ~4.8 min read:

• 🇬🇪 Georgia’s government withdraws controversial bill after mass protests.

• 🇵🇦 The Panama Canal is a little quiet.

• ➕ Plus: No Chinese weapons to Russia, how the papers are covering the jailing of a calendar vendor in Thailand, and some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue.

🎧 On today’s Intrigue Outloud: Iran watcher Ellie Geranmayeh explains how and why the West must negotiate with Iran on nuclear weapons.

– Valentina, Ethan & Jeremy

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇳🇵 Nepal: Veteran politico Ram Chandra Paudel has been elected Nepal’s third president (a largely ceremonial role) since the country's monarchy was abolished in 2008. A communist-dominated coalition currently holds power, but it's wracked by infighting.

2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: The Dutch government has announced it will restrict the export of key semiconductor manufacturing tech to China. It's part of an agreement with Japan and the US to curb China’s access to tech with potential military uses.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew to India to… attend a match at the world’s largest cricket stadium. He also declared India a "top tier" defence partner, and announced India will join Australia's huge Talisman Sabre war games this year.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: The President ('AMLO') has condemned calls from some US lawmakers advocating for military action against Mexican drug cartels. A recent fatal kidnapping of US citizens in Mexico prompted the tougher language by a handful of Republicans.

5. 🇸🇾 Syria: Airstrikes on Aleppo’s airport earlier this week are impeding the delivery of humanitarian aid to earthquake-hit zones, according to the UN. The attack is believed to have been conducted by Israel.

🇬🇪 GEORGIA | PROTESTS

Foreign agents bill repealed after two days of protests

Briefly: Georgia’s ruling party has withdrawn a controversial ‘foreign agents bill’ after two days of widespread protests. Critics of the law insist it risked undercutting basic freedoms and harmed Georgia’s EU membership prospects (it applied to join the EU last year).

The bill would've required Georgian organisations, including media and NGOs, to register as "foreign agents" if they get more than 20% of their funding from abroad. President Putin is using a similar law to stifle dissent in Russia.

No stopping now: Opposition leaders are still calling for protests. 80% of voters want EU membership, but Georgia's government seems less enthused than a vegan in the meat aisle.

Many blame the reclusive billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who controls the dominant Georgian Dream party. There's speculation he's trying to steer Georgia back towards Moscow.

Intrigue’s take: Georgia, a former Soviet state, has long walked a tightrope between its pro-Europe aspirations and its anti-Europe neighbour (Russia). But that rope is getting wobbly. Georgia's people are leaning closer to Europe, while Russian troops still occupy 20% of Georgia after a 2008 invasion to back pro-Russia separatists. Sound familiar?

As the European Council on Foreign Relations says: "Russia’s wars in Georgia and Ukraine seem part of a single imperial project".

Also worth noting:

• Politicians in Georgia claimed the law was similar to the US "Foreign Agents Registration Act" of 1938, but analysts have highlighted some fundamental differences.

• Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili has ruled out sending military aid to Ukraine, though the country has provided humanitarian assistance.

📰 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

How different newspapers covered: The jailing of a Thai man for selling rubber duck calendars allegedly insulting the Thai King.

Links: Bangkok Post, Straits Times, VOA

*Section 112 of the Thai criminal code states it is illegal to defame, insult, or threaten the monarch of Thailand.

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🇵🇦 PANAMA | TRADE

Panama is caught in the economic crossfire

Briefly: The Panama Canal is expecting to carry 500 million tonnes of cargo this year, down 18 million from last year. Revenue from the Canal (about $4B) typically accounts for 6% of Panama’s GDP, so any loss in traffic usually hits the country’s economy.

As one of the world’s most important waterways (right up there with Splashin’ Safari in Santa Claus, Indiana), the Panama Canal is a canary in the coalmine for global trade. A drop in cargoes can mean there's a recession on the horizon.

But there's another explanation here: As Europe has weaned itself off Russian energy, US gas shipments have filled the gap. And that means fewer US shipments sailing through the Panama Canal to buyers in Asia. So then… who’s filling the gap in Asia? Russia.

Intrigue’s take: The IMF makes an interesting point here: “smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition”.

So maybe the message to small countries is: pick a hub, and pray you pick the right one.

Also worth noting:

• Panama spent $5B on a decade-long Canal expansion, which opened in 2016 and was designed to double potential cargo.

• The Suez Canal recorded its second-highest annual traffic in 2022, recovering from a lengthy slump that began during the global recession in 2008.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

After a tense few weeks of accusations and denials, China's "no limits" partnership with Russia still has at least one limit: no lethal aid for Russia (for now).

For more on this, check out the latest episode of Intrigue Explained on Youtube, featuring our very own co-founder John Fowler!

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Team Intrigue is here to help get you cannon-balling into your weekend. If you have:

• 10 mins: Read this account of how migrants crossed Europe’s oldest forest to enter Europe from Belarus. ($)

• 50 mins: Listen to this podcast about the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which was often referred to as the ‘sick man of Europe’.

• 2 hours: Watch one of the films nominated for Best Picture ahead of the Oscars this weekend. Personally, we loved Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday's Poll: Do you think a non-state actor could have pulled off the Nord Stream attacks?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💣 Yes, especially with the element of surprise on your side (52%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🏴 No, someone else was behind this (who? write in!) (48%)

Your two cents: 

• 💣 M: “It is not that difficult any more to hire former special forces and put together such an operation. All tools and manpower are available in the market fairly easily, if people know where to look (not that I would, mind!)”.

• 🏴 C: "Demolition work in 350 feet of water (~11 atmospheres)? My money is on the Ukraine or US".