Plus: Invention of the day
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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. In 1967 the US gave Iran its first nuclear reactor under the "Atoms for Peace" program. Seven years later, the Shah declared his country would have 23 nuclear reactors within 20 years.
MIT trained Iranian nuclear scientists. Westinghouse and GE bid on reactor contracts. President Ford's chief of staff — a young Dick Cheney — pushed the deals through. Cheney’s first (but not last!) mistake.
Then came the 1979 revolution, the hostage crisis, immediate worries about nuclear proliferation and, most improbably of all, a Ben Affleck Oscar 33 years later.
Thank you for your attention during today’s history lesson – stay tuned for a more contemporary update on where were at in the 2025 version of the Iran nuclear talks.
2.3 million
That’s how many acres have gone up in flames amid ongoing wildfires in Canada, prompting the evacuation of over 30,000 people.
US-Iran nuclear talks
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, criticized key elements of the latest US nuclear proposal yesterday, questioning why Tehran should become "dependent on others" for its nuclear program when Washington maintains its own nuclear arsenal. His comments come after five rounds of talks that began in April.
If you're just catching up, here's what US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff proposed to Iran’s negotiators during last weekend’s fifth round of talks:
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A "regional enrichment consortium" (potentially including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Turkey) to monitor Iran’s uranium enrichment for civilian purposes
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Iran must drop enrichment from the current 60% level to 3% — that's from one step below weapons-grade to civilian reactor levels
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Iran must shut down its underground enrichment facilities
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And it can only develop nuclear materials for civilian purposes
Iran's response: At first, Iranian officials seemed open to the consortium idea as long as it was based in Iran and apparently discussed the proposal with neighbouring countries.
It could be a creative solution to a difficult problem with added long-term upside: instead of Iran enriching uranium alone (which scares everyone) or giving it up entirely (which Iran refuses to do), a regional consortium could help thread the needle and even improve regional cooperation.
But Ayatollah Khamenei didn’t get the memo. When Foreign Minister Araghchi brought the proposal home, Khamenei started firing off critical tweets/x’s asking, among other things, whether he should “disappoint thousands of nuclear scientists… make them unemployed?”
He also called US leaders “rude and insolent” because is it even an Ayatollah rant if it doesn’t include a furious insult?
Here's what's at stake for both sides:
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🇮🇷 Iran needs a deal for urgent economic relief. Sanctions have crushed its economy, power outages are common, and public anger is rising. Plus, there's a looming October deadline — if no deal has been agreed by then, UN sanctions will automatically snap back, making things even worse.
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🇺🇸 The US wants a deal because Iran’s 60% enrichment is too close to nuclear weapons capability for comfort. The Trump administration has called it a red line and hopes to get Russia and China on board with keeping Iran non-nuclear. The alternative? Trump's been clear: military strikes are on the table.
And here’s what’s at stake for the region:
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🇮🇱 In Israel, dialogue with Iran is viewed with deep suspicion. Hardline Israeli officials would prefer Washington take a 'maximum pressure' approach, leaning toward attacking the country before talking. Netanyahu has said publicly that any deal must involve "entering, blowing up the facilities" under American supervision (aka “The Libya Method”).
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🇸🇦 🇦🇪 In the Gulf, it's complicated. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar all have different relationships with Tehran, but they share one thing: nobody wants a war on their doorstep. Saudi’s defense minister was blunt during his April visit to Tehran—the first by a Saudi royal in decades—telling Iran to take Trump's offer seriously because the alternative is Israeli attacks that could engulf the whole region.
For now, every country (perhaps excluding Israel) wants to keep talking. Saudi Arabia "fully supports" the talks, Oman is playing mediator, and Trump is proudly announcing that he told Netanyahu not to bomb Iran as it risked derailing the “very good discussions we’re having with them.”
Intrigue’s Take
Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum warned Intriguers on Monday that the most dangerous times are when leaders’ language turns from policy disagreements to ad-hominem attacks.
The good news right now is that — assuming we ignore the Ayatollah’s Twitter screeds, which we absolutely should — all involved parties appear to be doing the serious work of finding creative solutions to difficult problems in good faith.
Yes, that sentence might come back to bite us in the coming months, but no, we’re not going to change it because we all need a little optimism from time to time.
Sound even smarter:
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Iran's currently sitting on enough highly enriched uranium for 10 nuclear weapons, according to the latest IAEA report.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Trump imposes travel ban on 12 countries. Comment: Like the travel ban issued during Trump 1.0, the latest order is likely to be challenged in the courts. |
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🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION — EU official presses Beijing to loosen rare earth curbs. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA – Government media unveils details on nuclear weapon. Comment: As ever, timing is key. These details were shared days after US Defense Secretary Hegseth accused China of posing a “threat” to the region, which tells you a lot about the message China wants to send in return. |
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🇮🇳 INDIA – Modi to visit Kashmir for first time since India-Pakistan spat. Comment: This might be obvious, but Modi’s visit has very little to do with trains and everything to do with demonstrating India’s tight security control of Kashmir and its intention to further develop the region to its advantage. |
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🇲🇽 MEXICO – Ship carrying EVs catches fire in the Pacific. |
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🇩🇪 GERMANY – City evacuates 20,000 after WWII bombs found. |
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🇨🇮 IVORY COAST – Former Credit Suisse boss barred from election. Comment: Ivory Coast is the world’s biggest cocoa producer. That doesn’t have much to do with the story, but chocolate is always important. |
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
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Tech: Apple released its 2025 Design Awards for Apps, with winners including an app to track wildfires and a language-learning app that transforms your photos into lessons.
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Space: US space tech company Maxar Intelligence signed a deal with Sweden’s Saab to develop new battlefield intelligence products.
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Music: Nigerians facing hardships are turning to ‘Afro-Adura’ (trenches music), a genre that mixes gospel, pop, and trap music, to keep their spirits up.
Invention of the day
A researcher holds up a thin piece of biodegradable plastic. Credits: Reuters/Manami Yamada
🥳 Good news alert! Researchers at the University of Tokyo say they have invented a plastic alternative that dissolves in seawater. The material dissolves within hours and leaves behind no residue, which many hope might finally be an answer to the plastic pollution plaguing our oceans.
According to the UN, plastic pollution is set to triple by 2040.
Today’s poll
Who do you think has more influence over Iran, in regards to a nuclear deal? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons?
👍 Yes, so it won't have to depend on the US (19%)
☮️ No, we need less nuclear weapons, not more (79%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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☮️ G.B: “The greater the number of Countries possessing them, the greater the chance of accidental or deliberate use.”
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👍 D.S: “This might change obviously but the current foreign "policy" of the US makes trusting them with anything risky. South Korea is in constant threat by the North so they either need reliable Big Brother or their own.”
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✍️ D.A: “"Should?" No. But you can't blame them for trying to get on equal level with folks like the U.S., who insist on limiting the international nuclear arsenal without fully eliminating their own supply.”