🌍 Iran seizes another oil tanker

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Protestors outside the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region have ended their sit-in after four months. The Azerbaijan-aligned protestors had stalled most traffic in and out of the Armenian-controlled enclave while Azerbaijan’s government built a checkpoint.

2. 🇪🇺 European Union: EU members on Friday took the first step towards extending for another year the current suspension of duties on Ukrainian grain. Some Eastern European countries have lobbied to end the measure, which they say undermines the competitiveness of their own agriculture sectors.

3. 🇸🇬 Singapore: Foreigners in Singapore will now pay a 60% property tax rate, the world’s highest, after officials doubled the rate last week. The hike is expected to benefit other regional hubs like Hong Kong.

4. 🇬🇾 Guyana: ExxonMobil and Hess have announced the discovery of additional oil reserves off the coast of the tiny South American nation of Guyana. The IMF forecasts Guyana will have the world’s fastest-growing economy this year thanks to its oil boom.

5. 🇸🇾 Syria: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Saturday that Turkish forces killed the suspected leader of ISIS in Syria, in an operation led by Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency. Turks will vote on 14 May whether to re-elect Erdogan to the presidency.

🇮🇷 IRAN | TANKER SEIZURES

Iran seizes another oil tanker

Briefly: Iranian commandos seized a US-bound oil tanker in international waters late last week in retaliation for an earlier US seizure of an Iranian vessel.

The waters off Iran are home to a fifth of all oil flows in the world, and lately Iran has been plucking oil tankers there like a kid yoinking nigiris off a sushi train.

It all flared up after the collapse of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2019. Tehran had agreed to cut its uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief. But when that deal fell apart, Iran revived its oil sales in breach of western sanctions, and tensions spilled into a broader shadow conflict:

• 🇬🇧 Iran seized two UK tankers after the UK seized an Iranian ship in 2019

• 🇰🇷 Iran took a Korean tanker in 2021 after Seoul froze Iranian assets, and

• 🇬🇷 Iran seized two Greek ships in 2022 after Greece allowed the US to drain an Iranian tanker

This latest seizure continues the tit-for-tat, but with a twist: it turns out the ship was not just US-bound, but also China-owned, and India-crewed. So in an attempt to get square with the US, Iran has poked two other giants as well. Oops.

Intrigue’s take: Iran’s ship seizures have generally avoided targeting US interests directly. It seems to be avoiding triggering a firmer US response. And that suggests US influence (and deterrence) in the region continues to stand.

But there’s a bigger trend: the world’s top importer of oil (including Iranian oil) is now China. And that might explain the muted US response to Iran’s seizures: it increasingly sees these volatile oil supply lines as a problem for Beijing.

Also worth noting:

• Last month the US warned commercial ships to proceed with caution through the area due to greater risk of Iranian harassment.

• The US has beefed up its military presence in the region in the past month, deploying a guided missile submarine, extending an aircraft carrier tour, and speeding up a plan to deploy A-10 attack aircraft.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Meco

🛢️ OPEC | ENERGY

OPEC and IEA argue over oil’s role in the world

Briefly: The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has accused the International Energy Association (IEA) of “finger pointing” (an accusation which itself kinda sounds like finger pointing).

Tension between the oil sector’s two key bodies bubbled over last month when OPEC (which represents oil sellers) announced surprise oil cuts, driving a spike in oil prices that angered the IEA (which represents oil buyers).

So when the IEA objected, OPEC fired off this sassy burn: “If anything will lead to future volatility it is the IEA’s repeated calls to stop investing in oil”.

Intrigue’s take: The IEA and OPEC have long been the Kanye and Taylor Swift of the oil sector, with a public feud going back years.

The IEA says there’s no place for new oil projects on the path towards net zero emissions. But OPEC says we need investment in both fossil fuel and renewable projects to avoid energy shortages during the transition.

So there’s broad agreement about the end destination, but real disagreement on how we get there. And the politics of all that are bound to get rockier.

Also worth noting:

• OPEC nations produce about 40% of the world’s crude oil and hold 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves.

• Investment in upstream oil and gas projects increased by 39% in 2022 (in part due to higher costs), the largest year-on-year increase in history.

• This year’s UN climate change conference (COP28) will be held in Dubai and chaired by the CEO of Abu Dhabi’s oil company.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’ve again scoured all four corners of the interweb for the world’s quirkiest headlines, to help put a spring in your Monday step.

• A plot of sand in Dubai has been sold for $34 million.

• Two users tricked an AI chatbot into giving them instructions on how to cook meth.

• Cambodia is pondering a ban on water guns.

• A 230-year-old statue was vandalised with blue crayons after a school trip.

• A UK zoo is hiring a human scarecrow to keep hungry seagulls away from visitor areas. The catch? They’ll have to wear a bird costume.

🗺️ MAP OF THE DAY

The EU’s new debt rules seem anything but green. According to a report by the New Economics Foundation, only 4 countries will have enough fiscal wiggle room to meet their climate pledges without breaking the new debt guidelines.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Thursday’s poll: Do you think nuclear umbrellas help decrease the number of nuclear weapons in the world?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🕊️ Yes, if states know they're protected, they won't have to acquire nuclear arms of their own (67%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☢️ No, big nuclear umbrellas lead to arms races (31%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🕊️ E.W: “Why make nukes yourself when someone else has got your back? All of the benefits, none of the responsibility.”

• ☢️ S: “A nuclear umbrella is another way of forcing countries to choose sides. Once you have chosen a side, it is often a race to outpace the other in building weapons”