Insight of the day

From Wes J. Bryant
(former US special operations joint terminal attack controller)

Now that the US president has indicated he’ll allow another two weeks for negotiations with Iran to continue, we can also reflect a little more on some of the underlying assumptions at play: eg, can the US actually punch through Iran’s Fordow mountain?

So with thanks to an anonymous Intriguer, we connected with one of the few folks in the world who might actually know the answer, given his years as a senior US targeting professional in (eg) the fight against ISIS — Wes J. Bryant. Here are some excerpts from our exchange with Wes (who says he does not support US strikes in this context):

• Using Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) is “not a viable strategy if we’re talking about complete destruction of the facility. Unless maybe we use every MOP in inventory… and it becomes a bit of a spray and pray strategy.”

• But “we could feasibly neutralize its capability at least temporarily and prevent use of the facility for X amount of time, and at the same time produce the desired psychological effect on the enemy.”

• “We could even do escalation – just hit one entrance, see if that brings Iran to the table in regard to their nuclear program”.

• “Daisy chaining 2-3 bombs each on the same points of impact but set at different depths of detonation is the most likely application targeteers would pursue to cause the most damage to the site (if logistics permit).”

• Wes also noted, “intel is not always complete. So, for any of us to assume we actually have the full picture of this facility might be naïve. Even on the classified side. And… the application of this to the Fordo site really would be a bit of luck mixed with physics, and I imagine that the targeteers planning this, as well as our munitions effects analysts and engineers, are all wondering the same things.”

Thanks Wes for sharing your insights with the Intrigue community 🙏

New media, news media

Folks are changing the way they consume news — shocker, that’s partly why a bunch of diplomats quit their jobs to build Intrigue.

But exactly how that’s playing out will have real implications for our world. So we chewed thoughtfully on our thick-rimmed glasses while reading all 171 pages of the latest Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2025, all so you don’t have to. 

Here are four of the most interesting stats from the report: 

• 34% 

That’s how many Americans now use social media as their main source of news, second only to Brazilians at 35%. And while younger folks are driving that shift, all age groups are leaning more into social media at the expense of traditional website and TV news.

• 17% 

That’s the global proportion of folks now using TikTok for news each week, up 4% in just a year. The China-owned platform’s role is soaring in Southeast Asia, with (for example) half of Thailand using it for news (up 10% in a year), while Africa hovers around 30%. 

These numbers are way above what we’re seeing in the US (12%) and Europe 11%). But even more intriguingly, 48% of respondents still consider TikTok a major source of BS.

• 15% 

That’s the percentage of under-25s using AI to access the news each week — that still feels pretty low, and it’s even lower when averaged across all ages (7%). But it’s growing. 

And interestingly, respondents offered mixed views on what this means for the news: folks expect AI will make the news cheaper, more accessible, and more up-to-date, but also less transparent, less accurate, and less trustworthy. 

• 40%

That’s the number of people who now say they just avoid the news. Their top reasons? It’s a buzz-kill (39%), it’s overwhelming (31%), it’s war-obsessed (30%), and (for 14% of under-35s) it’s also just too hard to understand. 

If only there was some kind of free daily briefing that gets you what you need to know, with ohhhh just a light sprinkling of mixed-quality jokes and melancholic optimism 🤔

Intrigue’s Take

Long-time Intriguers will already be familiar with the ways this broader information space is now intersecting with some big geopolitical shifts. Here are two examples:

• First, and following Biden’s sell-or-ban move against TikTok, Trump 2.0 has now granted the app three rolling stays of execution. Maybe it’s a) to preserve a bit of leverage over Beijing, or b) unpick the tensions in an authoritarian rival controlling an ultra-popular platform, or c) just kicking the can down the road. But while the US makes up its mind, the above stats are a reminder that, whichever way the White House goes, it’ll still be dealing with a very TikTok-shaped world.

• And second, while there’s often support for cutting costs, many DOGE casualties will hurt. For example, Voice of America was broadcasting uncensored news in 49 languages across repressive regimes everywhere, and was (according to Lowy’s latest Asia Power Index) the single top radio broadcaster across the Indo-Pacific. But with VOA now on mute to potentially save a few bucks (pending lawsuits), guess who’s the region’s next-top broadcaster? Yeah, Putin’s state-run Sputnik.

So while there are always valid debates around US cost-cutting and even news credibility, let’s not pretend this world doesn’t keep turning in the meantime.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Manhunt of the day

One minute you’re wandering through the wrong part of town, the next there’s a bounty on your head. At least, that’s what happened to a brown bear who triggered a full-blown urban manbear-hunt when she strutted into the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius last week.

Authorities approved a shoot-to-kill response, but local hunters objected given these creatures are vulnerable. Eventually, after a few days of meandering through the Baltic capital, she padded back out, corn snack in paw, seemingly on her own terms.

Friday Quiz

Today, 20 June, is World Refugee Day.