🌍 Is the Gaza war over?
Plus: This world leader rocks
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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. An old miller and his young grandson once set out to market with their donkey. The weary miller rode the donkey, but passers-by soon jeered: “That lazy man rides on high while the poor little boy has to walk.”
So he let his grandson ride the donkey instead, but other villagers quickly mocked this arrangement, too: “Look at that spoilt brat sitting back while the old man trudges.”
So they both just walked beside the donkey for a bit, until more folks weighed in: “Walking like fools when they have a perfectly good donkey to ride!” So the duo tried riding the donkey together, but more locals gasped: “Such cruelty to the poor creature.”
It’s an ol’ fable emphasising the futility of trying to please everyone. It’s how we approach Intrigue (though we love your feedback!), and it’s on my mind as we reflect on President Trump’s announcement that the Gaza war might now be over.
Number of the day
25%
That’s how much the UN will slash its peacekeeping force amid cuts from its top financial backer, the US. Some 14,000 of the 50,000 troops on UN missions will be sent home.
Peace in Gaza?
Now that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of President Trump's peace plan for Gaza overnight, it's worth a quick reflection on five ways this war has re-shaped our world, starting with…
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A humanitarian crisis
Much as we foreshadowed, the world has now spent two years watching in high-def as Israel's response to the Hamas attacks levelled Gaza, left tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, an estimated $50B reconstruction bill, and a generation traumatised.
Israelis continue to grieve over the Hamas rampage, the ongoing hostage ordeal, the loss of several hundred troops, plus some big hits to…
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Israel's global standing
Hamas always hoped Israeli overreach might trigger a broader war that'd annihilate the Jewish state. Instead, Israel got isolated as the war dragged on: we’re talking UN resolutions, plus countries cutting ties, expelling Israeli ambassadors, and suspending arms sales, while the Saudis paused historic normalisation talks. Even Israel's closest friends have shifted, with US public sentiment now polling at record lows.
Yet somehow, even all that potentially pales in comparison to…
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Historic court cases
South Africa's genocide claims before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) are particularly egregious for Israel, not only because the founding Hamas charter laid bare the group’s own genocidal intent, but because the term ‘genocide’ was itself first coined by Jewish lawyer Raphael Lemkin to describe the Nazi extermination campaigns that killed millions of Jews and others. We'd be surprised if the ICJ hands down its ruling before 2027, but many have already made up their minds given the Gaza devastation, and damning findings from a UN inquiry.
Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has arrest warrants out for Israel's Netanyahu and former defence minister (plus two Hamas masterminds who're now dead). And while many major powers don't recognise the ICC (think the US, India, China, Russia), and even some ICC members are ignoring the warrants (eg Hungary), ~125 others are still obliged to arrest Bibi if he visits. That not only hits his legacy, but constricts his movement.
Still, it's clearly not just losses for Netanyahu, who has somehow managed to improve…
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Israel's regional balance of power
Defying all expectations, Israel managed multiple wars at once, not only defanging Hamas, but also Hezbollah, the Houthis, and even their Iranian backers, who've been left embarrassed at home and diminished abroad. So if the Hamas attacks punctured Israel's deterrence, its response has now restored it.
And yet, while Israel's regional balance got stronger…
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The West got more divided
This war has rocked (via protests) virtually every major Western city, shaped every Western election, and divided every Western society in ways that (say) Putin's invasion, Sudan's atrocities, and Congo's bloodshed have not. And that division — fanned by authoritarian foes — is playing out everywhere: even Eurovision 2026 is teetering as some countries pledge to boycott if Israel is included, while others (like host nation Austria) have suggested they could boycott the event if Israel is excluded.
Anyway, let's end on a bright note, shall we? Two years on, the bombs might soon stop falling, and the hostages might soon be home. This might be a time for peace.
Intrigue’s Take
The biggest question right now, however, is whether this peace even holds, and we have our doubts given so many details are still TBC: will Hamas disarm, let alone disband? And who's going to volunteer troops for a stabilisation force in Gaza?
That in turn points to the broader question hovering above it all: even if this peace holds, will it finally usher in a viable two-state solution and lay the foundation for a durable Middle East peace? The actual text of Trump's plan merely muses that, after several other milestones are met, "the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood".
That's a classic rhetorical contortion we saw all the time on the inside, and is likely the product of negotiators trying to sound as optimistic as possible without breaching Bibi's lines: barely two weeks ago, the Israeli leader responded to a slew of Western recognitions at the UN, vowing "there will never be a Palestinian state."
And speaking of Bibi, the end of this war revives some big headaches for him at home, including his ongoing corruption trial, inevitable accountability for Israel's own intelligence and security lapses, and big elections due this time next year.
As for Hamas accountability? The original Gaza architects of the attack are all dead, and Trump’s plan offers amnesty for others willing to lay down their arms. But something tells us this won’t apply to the ~nine other original Hamas politburo members, all still in hiding.
Sound even smarter:
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Netanyahu’s office just announced that offensive operations in Gaza have now stopped. Israel's Arabic-language military spokesperson has warned Gazans to await instructions before returning to Gaza City.
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The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize gets announced tomorrow (Friday) from ~5am ET.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇨🇳 CHINA – Rare-er earths. Comment: Mirroring some of DC’s extraterritorial curbs on China’s chip access, it’s a classic attempt to use China’s rare earth dominance to build leverage just as Trump and Xi weigh up a possible face-to-face at APEC in Korea later this month. |
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES – Not Guilty. |
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🇩🇪 GERMANY – Throwback. Comment: Merz won the election on promises to reboot Europe’s biggest economy, but that’s tricky amid challenges from Germany’s top two trade partners: tariffs out of the US and over-capacity out of China (neither of which are solvable for Merz alone). |
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🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA – Whodunnit. Comment: Theories include North Korea outsourcing the hack to independent actors in China, or the two allies even working together. Both could be plausible, though China’s involvement against South Korea (a US ally) would be an escalation. |
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🇲🇲 MYANMAR – Another atrocity. |
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🇨🇦 CANADA – No deal (yet). Comment: While not a success, Carney’s visit wasn’t exactly a failure either, with the Trump-Carney dialogue now at least appearing to be on a more cordial trajectory. |
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🇲🇱 MALI – Fuel blockade. |
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
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Food: The EU Parliament has voted in favour of banning vegan companies from using words such as burger, steak, and sausage in their products (it’s unclear if the measure will get the required majority approval from EU members).
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Business: Japanese investor SoftBank just bought Swiss-based conglomerate ABB’s robotics arm for $5.4B.
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Nature: The world’s driest region is in full bloom after some unusual rainfall in Chile’s Atacama Desert.
Gig of the day
Credits: Javier Milei via X
What do you do when big mid-term elections are just weeks away, and your party isn’t doing too well? According to Argentina’s Javier Milei, you immediately dust off your leather, get up on stage, and belt out a nine-track set of mostly 1980s rock anthems in front of 15,000 cheering fans.
Milei’s Monday night gig in Buenos Aires was to celebrate the launch of his 14th book (Construction of the Miracle), a 573-page compilation of his speeches, writings, and tweets from the past year defending his libertarian vision for Argentina. He’s managed to cool soaring inflation, but households are struggling, and markets have wobbled.
Today’s poll
Do you think this Palestinian-Israeli peace will last? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Macron will announce elections before the end of the year?
🗳️ Yes, he's got no other viable choice (56%)
🎩 No, he'll pull another trick (42%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🗳️ A.T.W: “His lone walk along the Seine says it all.”
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🎩 M.S: “Lame-duck PMs until Macron’s term is up. He will never willingly give up power early.”
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✍️ F: “Gambler as he is, he'll probably call for elections AND pull another trick… or 2.”