:root {–wt-primary-color: #2D2DC8;–wt-text-on-primary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-secondary-color: #F9FAFB;–wt-text-on-secondary-color: #030712;–wt-tertiary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-tertiary-color: #222222;–wt-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-background-color: #222222;–wt-subscribe-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color: #222222;–wt-header-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto,”Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-body-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-button-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-border-radius: 8px}.bg-wt-primary { background-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.text-wt-primary { color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.border-wt-primary { border-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-primary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-primary { color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-primary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.bg-wt-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.text-wt-secondary { color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.border-wt-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-secondary { color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-tertiary { color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-tertiary { color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-background { background-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.text-wt-background { color: var(–wt-background-color); }.border-wt-background { border-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.bg-wt-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.rounded-wt { border-radius: var(–wt-border-radius); }.wt-header-font { font-family: var(–wt-header-font); }.wt-body-font { font-family: var(–wt-body-font); }.wt-button-font { font-family: var(–wt-button-font); }input:focus { –tw-ring-color: transparent !important; }li a { word-break: break-word; }@media only screen and (max-width:667px) {.mob-stack {display: block !important;width: 100% !important;}.mob-w-full {width: 100% !important;}}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmWUlfBBc4AMP6lQ.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOjCnqEu92Fr1Mu51TzBic6CsTYl4BO.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOmCnqEu92Fr1Mu4mxKKTU1Kg.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOkCnqEu92Fr1Mu51xIIzIXKMny.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiByp8kv8JHgFVrLCz7Z1xlFd2JQEk.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiDyp8kv8JHgFVrJJLmy15VF9eOYktMqg.woff2’) format(‘woff2′);}.table-base, .table-c, .table-h { border: 1px solid #C0C0C0; }.table-c { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-c p { color: #2D2D2D; font-family:’Helvetica’,Arial,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }.table-h { padding:5px; background-color:#F1F1F1; }.table-h p { color: #2A2A2A; font-family:’Trebuchet MS’,’Lucida Grande’,Tahoma,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ An Israel-Hamas deal? |
2️⃣ Brazil bans phones in schools |
3️⃣ App of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Though we’re still a few days away from President Biden’s handover to the incoming Trump Administration 2.0, folks in Washington DC are already looking back on what his legacy might be, both domestically and internationally.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
For some, Biden’s legacy centres around the industrial policy highlights of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act. For others, it’s hard to look past Biden’s performance in that presidential debate against Trump.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Either way, the new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will be logged as a big win for the outgoing Biden Administration, especially if it actually holds. We’re taking a closer look at that deal in our top story today.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
PS – Don’t miss the inside scoop on US-China competition in our candid chat with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party. It’s online, 10am ET on Tuesday — register here!
THE HEADLINES
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Biden delivers farewell address.
The outgoing president has used his valedictory address to warn of the emergence of an oligarchy of “extreme wealth, power and influence” that could undermine the country’s democracy. Biden also highlighted the dangers of climate change and the rise of a “tech-industrial complex” burying people in online disinformation.
Polish leader accuses Russia of planning global attacks.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has accused Russia of planning acts of sabotage around the world, including “acts of air terror” — the allegations come after last year’s explosions at logistics hubs in Germany and England, reportedly caused by incendiary devices headed for North America.
Yoon refuses questioning.
The South Korean president, finally arrested yesterday after a long-running standoff, has now refused to participate in questioning by federal investigators — they now have ~24 hours to either release Yoon or seek another warrant.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Activist short-seller Hindenburg closes shop.
Founder Nate Anderson has announced the decision, citing a desire to spend more time with family and friends. Hindenburg famously accused India’s vast Adani conglomerate of fraud in 2023, wiping $108B off Adani’s market cap along the way.
Starmer in Ukraine for security deal.
British PM Keir Starmer is in Ukraine to sign a 100-year security and trade pact in what could be a show of support ahead of Trump 2.0. Meanwhile, Starmer has confirmed he won’t sign a deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius until Trump considers the deal’s implications for the US-UK military base on Diego Garcia.
Bezos blasts off.
After some hitches earlier in the week, the Bezos-founded Blue Origin space company has now successfully launched its New Glenn rocket into orbit for its maiden flight.
TOP STORY
Is the Israel-Hamas war over?
Clockwise from top-left: Israel’s Netanyahu, Trump’s tweet, Qatar’s PM al-Thani, and President Biden
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
466 days into the Israel-Hamas war, the two sides have now reached a second (and potentially final) ceasefire and hostage release deal, set to go into effect this Sunday, 19 January — the day before Trump 2.0 kicks off.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Announced in Doha by Qatar’s Prime Minister Al-Thani, with help from American, Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators, the deal involves:
-
An initial 42-day truce, during which…
-
Hamas gradually returns 33 (not all alive) of the remaining ~100 hostages
-
Israel releases ~1,200 Palestinians from Israeli prisons
-
Partners surge humanitarian aid into Gaza
-
Israeli forces begin withdrawing from the strip, and
-
Palestinians can return to northern Gaza
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Beyond that initial six week mark, the idea is to shift to a less detailed second and third phase to bring a permanent end to the war, release all the hostages, finalise Israel’s withdrawal, and move to some kind of post-Hamas Gaza reconstruction.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Hamas was always reluctant to do a deal because returning the hostages would evaporate whatever leverage it had left.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
And Netanyahu was always reluctant because any deal leaving Hamas in Gaza ran the risk of another October 7 attack, plus opposition from his own hard-line coalition partners.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So… why have they agreed to this deal now?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
First, the answer depends a bit on who you want to give credit:
-
The outgoing Biden administration has emphasised that this deal is the one he first outlined last year, and it’s now done and dusted before he leaves office
-
The incoming Trump administration has emphasised his pledge to get it done before taking office, issuing threats against anyone still holding hostages, and
-
The Qataris have been ramping up pressure on Hamas, using their leverage as Hamas politburo hosts and Gaza donors (plus the group’s relative demise).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
All three camps have also variously emphasised the close cooperation between them.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But second, the answer also depends on who you want to believe:
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Israel’s Netanyahu now appears to have agreed to the very same Hamas demands he rejected last year, including a) the eventual full withdrawal of Israeli troops, and b) the return of a million Palestinians to Gaza’s north (with limited security screening).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So really, the question comes down to why Netanyahu has seemingly changed his mind.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Various Netanyahu-friendly outlets in Israel are citing pressure from Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff. There are few details of this pressure beyond references to Witkoff’s “salty” language, plus rumours of ‘sweeteners’: settlements in the West Bank, pressure on the Saudis to normalise ties, and/or some kind of move against Iran’s nuclear program.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Anyway, against that backdrop, there are now various theories around why Bibi agreed:
-
Because Trump pressured and/or enticed him more than Biden
-
Because Bibi wanted the timing to favour the more pro-Israel Trump
-
Because blaming Trump helps shield Bibi from his own hard-liners
-
Because Bibi’s expanded governing coalition now protects him from #3 above, offering a popular exit ramp out of this war ahead of Israel’s next elections, and
-
Because the post-election Biden and Trump teams have been working together to pressure Bibi, leaving him no partisan wedge to exploit.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So which one is it?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
This answer might annoy some of you, and we’re unlikely to know the full truth until various inside reports are declassified, but our gut is it’s probably all of the above.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So how’s everyone responding? World leaders are hailing peace, negotiators are claiming credit, and Hamas, Israel, Biden, and Trump are all variously claiming victory.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
In our own experience, when everyone’s claiming credit and victory, it’s a sign the deal might just hold — though Israel is now claiming Hamas is backtracking out of the final accord by making last-minute demands, an accusation Hamas denies.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The thing is, dear Intriguer, when all parties (including even foes like Israel and Hamas) claim victory, it’s also a sign that this deal might contain the seeds of its own demise.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
At face value, we’re now looking at:
-
A future Gaza with Hamas still present, and
-
A future Israel with Netanyahu further backed by the US.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Those two futures don’t strike us as mutually compatible.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Also worth noting:
-
The mastermind of the October 7th attacks (Sinwar) was himself released from an Israeli prison under the terms of a 2011 deal with Hamas.
-
With a deal in place, Netanyahu could now face renewed pressure over the security lapses that enabled the October 7th attack, not to mention his ongoing corruption case.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇯🇵 Japan: A record ~37 million people visited Japan in 2024, smashing the 2019 record of 32 million visitors as the weak yen makes the destination more affordable. Tourists also spent ~$52B last year, up 53% from 2023.
-
🇪🇸 Spain: Shockingly-handsome leader Pedro Sánchez has announced plans to impose a 100% property tax on non-EU buyers. The proposal aims to curb real estate speculators who’ve driven up prices in Spain’s tourism-heavy provinces.
-
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: UK anti-corruption minister Tulip Siddiq has resigned after being named in an ongoing corruption investigation in Bangladesh, where mass protests ousted her aunt Sheikh Hasina last year. Siddiq maintains her innocence.
-
🇧🇷 Brazil: President Lula da Silva has signed into law a ban on cell phones in schools, arguing “we cannot allow humanism to be replaced by algorithms.” The bill, which enjoys rare bipartisan support, follows similar measures implemented in the Netherlands, Italy, France, and eight US states.
-
🇲🇱 Mali: Canadian gold miner Barrick has announced it’s suspending its operations in Mali after authorities there seized $245M in gold over the weekend. Intriguers will recall it’s part of a wider mining crackdown by the juntas running Mali and some of its neighbours.
FROM OUR SPONSORS
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Unlock the full potential of your workday with cutting-edge AI strategies and actionable insights, empowering you to achieve unparalleled excellence in the future of work. Download the free guide today!
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s happening in other worlds:
-
Space: SpaceX has launched two moon landers on the same rocket. A bit of cost-cutting?
-
Sports: Tennis star Novak Djokovic just played his 430th Gland Slam singles game, beating Roger Federer’s previous record.
-
Society: The 2025 Oscar nominations announcement has just been delayed for the second time (to 23 January) due to the ongoing LA fires.
APP OF THE DAY
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Where there’s an app there’s a way. With TikTok reportedly preparing to shut down for US users entirely on Sunday, some US folks have instead started downloading Xiaohongshu (aka ‘Little Red Book’ or ‘RedNote’), an Instagram-TikTok hybrid that’s popular in China.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The surge has triggered both laughs and tears online, given TikTok copped Washington’s divest-or-ban law for the very same national security reasons presumably reflected in the China-based RedNote (which is now dutifully trying to hire English-language censors).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Bonus fact: the US divest-or-ban law’s fine print technically only blocks new downloads of the TikTok app (including updates).
DAILY POLL
What do you think finally got this Israel-Hamas deal across the finish line? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think about these new AI chip rules?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔴 They’ll end up hurting US and global interests (14%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🟢 They’ll reinforce US leadership in the sector (13%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💁 It doesn’t matter, Trump will change them (70%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Your two cents:
-
💁 M.G: “If the issue was so important, why did they wait to implement it?”
-
🔴 D.B: “Identifying your close friends and putting restrictions on everyone else isn’t a move likely to appeal to neutral countries.”
-
🟢 T: “If Trump changes anything he will make the rules even tighter.”
-
✍️ X.F: “Kind of pointless as I’m sure chips will just be purchased in a friendly country and then shipped to China at a higher price. In addition, necessity is the mother of invention.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 100k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.