Number of the day

8.7 million

That’s how many locals Polish authorities told to shelter in place as jets shot down Russian drones that “repeatedly violated” Polish airspace. The numbers (~20 drones) and region (facilitating NATO-Ukraine transfers) suggest Putin is testing both NATO’s air defences and political response (Poland now wants formal NATO talks).

The latest from the Middle East

Well that was unexpected: around 4:00pm Tuesday local time in the ritzy Katara district of Qatar’s capital of Doha, an Israeli airstrike blew up a compound hosting Hamas leaders.

While Israel has signalled confidence it was a wipe-out, Hamas says none of its five dead were senior leaders. Right now, we just don’t know.

What was Hamas doing in Qatar? 

Qatar’s political HQ used to be in Syria until a civil war falling-out with Syria’s al-Assad dictatorship pushed Hamas to relocate. There’ve always been reports both the US and Israel tacitly approved that move — and Qatar’s subsequent financial backing in Gaza — as a way to weaken Iran’s grip.

But of course, the Hamas October 7 attacks brought new scrutiny to Qatar-Hamas ties:

• The Qataris have (with the Egyptians) leveraged their Hamas ties to mediate ceasefire talks since the beginning, but

• The Biden Administration started to lose patience, pushing the Qataris to evict Hamas unless the group eased its ceasefire demands. By November 2024, Doha was saying senior Hamas figures had skipped town, though the office remained.

Senior Hamas leaders then apparently flew back into Qatar from Turkey and elsewhere this week, with Qatar’s PM urging them to accept the latest US deal: release all hostages in return for more Palestinian detainees and a US pledge Israel wouldn’t resume the war.

So then… why’d Israel strike? 

The Israelis argue the attack was justified because Hamas a) led the October 7th attack on Israel, and b) claimed responsibility for Monday’s deadly Jerusalem bus stop attack.

For Israel, this ongoing assassination program is about holding Hamas to account, shifting negotiations in its own favour (surrender and return the hostages), and even just cutting Hamas out altogether: Netanyahu has urged Gazans, “make peace with us, and accept President Trump’s proposal. […] But you’ve got to take these people out of the way.”

Meanwhile, Qatar has condemned this all as a threat to its security and sovereignty, a “blatant violation of all international laws and norms”, and an escalation in an already volatile region. It’s also (along with much of the international community) flagged that these strikes targeting Hamas negotiators will undermine any prospects for peace.

But as always, one of the biggest questions is…

Did the US know about this?

The Israelis say it was their idea and their decision, carried out by them alone. But Israeli outlets initially reported DC helped coordinate and ultimately even approved the attack.

Meanwhile, President Trump says he only found out from the Pentagon at the last minute, and tried to give the Qataris a heads-up but it was too late.

As for the Qataris themselves? They seem sceptical (and pissed), arguing a) they got no word until missiles were already raining down, b) local US defences swatted away Iran’s attacks back in June, but didn’t seem to lift a finger now, and c) the airstrike comes just days after President Trump issued a “last warning” for Hamas to accept his deal.

But that’d mean the US greenlighting a strike on its own major non-NATO ally, Qatar.

What now? 

Hamas is citing the attacks as proof Israel doesn’t want peace, whereas the Israelis are blaming foreign-based Hamas leaders (far from the war) as the true obstacles at this point.

Either way, it’s hard to see Qatari mediation surviving these strikes. And from what we’ve seen of Hamas so far, it’s hard to see it surrendering now after digging in for so long.

Intrigue’s Take

Here’s a big picture trend we’ve observed: Israel’s remarkable capabilities have tended to mask debate around its strategy. Or to put it another way: from a raw operational perspective, hitting Hamas leaders in the heart of Tehran and Doha, or wiping out Hezbollah leaders via pagers, has left intel types everywhere agape. It’s jaw-dropping.

But amid doubts whether this latest strike actually killed the intended Hamas targets (and reports one of the dead was a Qatari security official), there might now be more internal debate around the underlying strategy: at what point (if ever) will Israelis assess that the broader blowback outweighs any Hamas hits?

But speaking of strategy, there might also now be some introspection from Qatar: one reason it hosts anything from (say) the FIFA World Cup and a major US airbase, through to British and Turkish forces and even the Hamas politburo? It hopes this quasi-Switzerland hub status might protect it from its Saudi rivals next door.

But of course, when just about everyone sees a foe hunkering down in Qatar, you risk the opposite happening, too: Qatar somehow just pulled off the wild honour of getting hit by both Israel and Iran within 11 weeks. As the dust settles, it’s a reminder of the challenges for any nation banking on a multi-aligned strategy in a multipolar world.

Sound smarter:

• These strikes come after Israeli Defence Minister Katz threatened Qatar-based Hamas figure al-Hayya in June (“you are next”), and Israel’s top general (Zamir) reiterated the threat just last month: “most of Hamas's leadership is abroad, and we will reach them as well”.

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Pacaso

Former Zillow exec opens door to $1.3T market

Austin Allison sold his first company for $120M. He also served as an exec for Zillow. But both companies reached massive valuations before regular people could invest. 

“I always wished everyday investors could have shared in their early success,” Allison later said. So he built Pacaso differently. 

They’ve made $110M+ in gross profits to date by disrupting a $1.3T market. No wonder the early investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay also backed Pacaso. And unlike his previous companies, you can invest in Pacaso as a private company. 

But only until September 18. Invest before this opportunity’s gone for good.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board 💼

• Project Officer for Reform Cooperation @ Swedish Consulate in Istanbul

• Senior Manager, Global Cultural Programs @ Smithsonian in DC

• Engagement and Organizing Advisor @ Oxfam, Remote

• Overseas Partnerships Officer @ Singaporean Government in Singapore

Street art of the day

A member of the Intrigue team just spotted this in the streets of San Francisco, featuring a distraught Sam Altman (of OpenAI) pleading for just another $20B to finally reach Artificial General Intelligence (however you want to define that).

The meme-inspired street art hints at OpenAI’s mounting challenges, whether rivals poaching its top talent, or US states scrutinising its efforts to become a for-profit. If (as seems a real possibility) California hampers OpenAI’s pivot, it could be a mess given the AI pioneer’s backers have conditioned $19B on getting shares in a new company.

Anyway, hopefully we can all agree this street artist at least has some legit talent?

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Which sport do you think has the most diplomatic sway?

🎾Tennis (7%)
🏀 Basketball (9%)
⛳️ Golf (14%)
🏊 Swimming (1%)
🤸🏽Gymnastics (3%)
⚽️ Soccer (63%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• ⚽️ H.S: “Follow the money.”

• ✍️ S.A: “None. Sports are all about money, assuming there is anything more is naïve.”

• ⚽️ C.A: “The Olympic Games! World leaders were praising Putin in Sochi 2014, and a week later he invaded Crimea with little consequence.”

• ✍️ D.B: “If you're trying to gain favor with a foreign country, you have to engage in their popular pastimes. Could be basketball, soccer, Formula 1, or table tennis. Depends on the country.”

• 🎾 R.H: “Soccer is much more popular, but at least tennis refuses to allow Russian and Byelorussian players to have their national flag beside them in the standings or mentioned in the tournament draw.”