🌍 Israel is at war

Hi there Intriguer. Given the events of the weekend, we’ll dive straight in.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇮🇱 Israel is at war.

• 🛩️ US forces down a Turkish drone.

• ➕ Plus: The latest Nobel laureate, how the papers are covering this year’s Valdai Discussion Club in Russia, and why robot wolves are popping up all over Japan.

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: Regulators in Seoul have said they plan to fine Google and Apple for abusing their app store dominance. The penalties will cost the two companies a total of around $51M.

2. 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: A 6.3 magnitude earthquake near Herat killed more than 2,400 people yesterday (Sunday), per the Taliban. Donors have curbed aid since the Taliban took power and banned women from NGO work, limiting the country’s ability to respond.

3. 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Major cities have been blanketed with smoke from forest fires in Indonesia, according to Kuala Lumpur. Indonesia has denied any culpability and rejected offers from Malaysia to cooperate on firefighting.

4. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: A prosecutor in Caracas has issued an arrest warrant for opposition figure Juan Guaidó on treason and other charges. Guaidó, who’s denied the claims and is now in exile in the US, declared himself interim president in 2019 in an effort to oust current President Maduro.

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: An opposition party in Nigeria has accused President Tinubu of forging a diploma he received from an American university during the run-up to this year’s elections. The opposition says Tinubu should be removed from office if the claims are true.

🇮🇱 Israel | Geopolitics

Israel is at war

Hamas – considered a terrorist organisation in several countries – attacked Israel early Saturday morning, on the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah.

In a multi-domain operation (land, air, sea), the group punched through Israel's smart fence and poured into the country on motorbikes, pickup trucks, speedboats and motorised paragliders, penetrating up to 30km into Israel and gaining entry into at least four Israeli military bases.

The group stormed the Nova music festival 5km from Gaza, shooting dead at least 260 revellers, while Hamas units went on to roam freely through the country’s southern communities, killing and kidnapping Israelis. There have been early reports of beheadings and sexual violence.

Hamas has relocated some hostages – including civilians and military personnel – back to Gaza's infamous network of underground tunnels.

Hamas says its goal is to “liberate our land, our holy places, our Al-Asqsa Mosque, and our prisoners.”

For its part, Israel says its death toll has passed 700, in “the worst massacre of innocent civilians in Israel’s history.”

The country has declared war on Hamas, calling up hundreds of thousands of reservists, and conducting retaliatory bombardments in Gaza. Authorities in Gaza say more than 300 people have been killed there so far.

In parallel, Israel is amassing troops ahead of an anticipated ground invasion of Gaza, though a formal government order hasn’t emerged at this stage.

How has the world reacted?

• The US, the EU, the UK, France, India, and others have variously condemned Hamas and affirmed Israel's right to defend itself

• China and Russia each called for restraint and a resumption of negotiations to establish a Palestinian state, and

• Others like Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Indonesia have attributed blame to Israel and its treatment of the Palestinians

Egypt is trying to mediate, warning of a possible broader regional conflict.

Meanwhile Iran has “congratulated” the Palestinian people, Hamas has reportedly said Iran backed the attack, and the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Iran helped plan it and gave the final green light. Initial comments from the US suggest Washington is still investigating Iran’s role.

Intrigue's take: We wrote last week that the global order is fraying, creating space for destructive forces to take advantage. It reminds us of something a Western ambassador to Israel once told us in our former lives as diplomats: “deep down, people don't want peace; they want to win.”

His comment seemed cynical back then, but more plausible right now.

Some thoughts, in no particular order:

• Israel has long had the region’s most formidable intel services, but its failure to prevent this attack is nothing short of catastrophic.

• In 48 hours, Hamas seems to have brought about something that’s rarely been seen in Israel: cross-party unity.

• Egypt, Jordan, the UAE and Bahrain want to curb escalation to keep their own normalisation of Israel ties sustainable domestically.

• For similar reasons, this attack probably ends Saudi-Israeli talks for now, to the benefit of Iran. But if there’s genuine Saudi interest, this attack needn’t rule out normalisation with Israel in the long term.

• For some Palestinians, these events will bolster the legitimacy of Hamas as the ‘most effective’ leaders of the Palestinian cause, at the expense of the ailing Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

• And it’s hard to see Hamas surviving (in its current form) Israeli retaliation, but history suggests new leaders will emerge.

Also worth noting:

• Hamas laid out its objectives in a 2017 policy. The earlier Hamas charter of 1988 said Islam would “obliterate” Israel.

• The International Court of Justice found in 2004 that an Israeli barrier was illegal, and that Israeli settlements had been "established in breach of international law". Israel rejected that finding.

• Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for a single Israeli soldier (Gilad Shalit) in 2011, after five years in Hamas captivity.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Putin’s speech at a Valdai Discussion Club* meeting in Russia

*The Valdai Discussion Club is a Moscow-based think tank.

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🛩️ Turkey | Defence & security

Turkey and the US have a close shave in Syria

An American fighter jet shot down a Turkish military drone last week after it flew within 500m of US forces in northeast Syria.

This is exceedingly rare. Turkey and the US have been NATO allies since 1952; they fought together in Korea and Afghanistan, and coordinated closely during the Cold War.

But in Syria, they’re on opposing sides:

• The US works with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia fighting groups like ISIS plus the Syrian regime forces, while

• Turkey sees the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Ankara (plus the US and others) have listed as terrorists.

Intrigue’s take: As with any organisation of NATO’s size (31 members), it’s unlikely that every member will row in the same direction, all the time.

Still, if the US and Turkey have arrived at a point where they’re shooting each other’s hardware out of the sky, it might be time for a heart-to-heart.

Also worth noting:

• The US defence secretary and top military leadership called their Turkish counterparts immediately after the incident.

• In June, Turkey carried out a drone strike targeting the SDF’s leader. There were three US military personnel in the convoy that was carrying him. Nobody was hurt.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news:

• Robot wolves have started popping up across rural Japan as anti-bear precautions.

• A journalist in Australia has inadvertently ended up naming her child ‘Amphetamine Rules’ after testing the limits of local naming regulations.

• A snooker champion in China has received a penalty after turning up in a brown suit for an all-black dress code tournament.

• US customs authorities have stopped a traveller after she attempted to bring giraffe excrement into the country to make a poo necklace.

• And a driver in Scotland says he was “kidnapped” by his runaway electric car.

🗳️ Poll time!

📜 Today in history

On this day in 2012, the Pakistani Taliban shot a then 15-year-old education activist Malala Yousafzai in the head. Yousafzai survived the assassination attempt and went on to become the world's youngest Nobel laureate.

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner is Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian activist who’s been arrested multiple times and is currently in an Iranian prison.

Thursday’s poll: Do you think Serbia was behind the ambush of the Kosovar police unit?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔫 Yes, there's no way they could've gotten hold of those weapons without help (67%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 No, somehow sourcing Serbian weapons isn't the same as following Serbian orders (28%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)

Your two cents:

• 🤷 L.N: “Serbia may be eager to capitalize on this event, but eagerness alone is not conclusive evidence of orchestration – we would need more robust evidence of coordination, like communication chains.

• ✍️ G.D.S: “Surprised nobody sees the convenience of this distraction for Russia.”