Plus: Embassy of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Who’s in a Trump or Harris cabinet? |
2️⃣ Iran’s currency hits record low |
3️⃣ Embassy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Election day in America is like watching your phone’s three ‘typing’ dots when messaging your ex… the eventual result could go either way, but it’s the waiting that’ll kill ya.
Meanwhile, for any expats living in America, election day is like being the best friend — totally powerless to influence the outcome, but either way you’ll be roped into drinking too much wine on a school night.
And as for you folks in the rest of the world? It’s gotta be like watching a horror movie — glued to your screen in the wee hours of the morning muttering “oh honey, no”.
Anyway, today’s briefing takes a look at who might snag the top international jobs in a Harris or Trump administration.
PS – Don’t miss our live post-election debrief next week on Tuesday, November 12 — Global Plot Twist: The New President’s Agenda for a Tumultuous World. It’s 11am ET / 8:00am PT / 4pm GMT. Sign up here!
US authorities warn of more foreign interference.
As millions head to the polls today, US agencies have again warned voters about Russian interference “intended to undermine public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stoke divisions among Americans.” The statement also highlights Iran’s disruptive efforts. PS – Don’t miss the next edition of Election Intrigue, our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world (and vice versa).
Bibi advisor arrested in leak investigation.
Israeli authorities have arrested several people, including an aide to Prime Minister Netanyahu, over purported intelligence leaks to European newspapers earlier this year. The leaks may have been based on partial or false information and came at a crucial time for hostage negotiations, leading Israeli opposition figures and hostage families to accuse Netanyahu of purposefully torpedoing the talks for political gain. Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing by his staff.
Boeing strike ends.
Boeing employees have ended a seven-week strike after voting to accept a deal which includes a 38% pay rise spread over four years. The bitter strike has halted most jet production and exacerbated the firm’s financial woes.
Russia accused of sabotage plot on US-bound planes.
Western intelligence services are accusing Russia of seeking to plant incendiary devices on planes bound for the US and Canada, according to The Wall Street Journal. Two devices eventually went up in flames at logistics hubs in Germany and the UK earlier this year.
Scholz’s government on the brink.
Germany’s ruling coalition is seemingly just one step away from dissolution, with crisis talks now underway to resolve fundamental budget differences among the three parties. Not now, Germany!
TOP STORY
It’s election day! So let’s look at possible cabinets
Whether it’s Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House next, they'll bring an entire entourage of cabinet members, loyal staffers, and other assorted hangers-on.
So, who are these people running Washington next and, by extension, shaping the world? Let’s take a look at the names being floated for the top international jobs.
For Trump’s secretary of state, the names doing the rounds include:
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Richard Grenell: the loyalist wore many hats during Trump 1.0, including as ambassador to Germany and presidential envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations, before ending up in Washington as the acting Director of National Intelligence. When Intrigue asked him what a Trump 2.0 foreign policy would look like, he said it’d be very much like Trump 1.0, just sharper. Meanwhile, a senior German banking official reiterated to us that Grenell’s more assertive, America-first vibes won him few friends in Berlin.
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Mike Pompeo: one of Trump’s longest-serving cabinet members, Pompeo got high marks from the Oval Office for his tenure as secretary of state, even if some of his guideline-breaching tasks irritated the occasional employee. But there’s speculation Pompeo, a former cavalry officer who graduated top of his class at West Point, might be seeking to land at the Pentagon as defence secretary instead.
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Other names getting thrown around include Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, Tennessee senator and former US ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, plus Trump’s former national security advisor Robert O’Brien.
And speaking of national security advisors, Trump 1.0 actually featured four of them: Michael Flynn, John Bolton, H. R. McMaster, and Robert O'Brien. While McMaster and Bolton have since become Trump critics, O’Brien has been busy writing job applications op-eds backing Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ strategy. And Trump has previously vowed to bring back Flynn, after pardoning him for lying to the FBI. China hawk and former Pentagon official Elbridge Colby is also likely to re-emerge somewhere.
Now onto a potential Harris team, starting with secretary of state:
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Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the current US ambassador to the UN, was one of several career diplomats pushed out of State after Trump took office in 2017. She’s well-known in diplomatic circles but has catapulted to broader viral attention over the past year, as the US official raising her hand to veto Gaza ceasefire resolutions at the UN.
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Delaware senator Chris Coons, who famously looks a lot like German leader Olaf Scholz, has said he’d “seriously” consider the role if offered. And Connecticut senator Chris Murphy seems to have thrown his hat in the ring too, penning his own job application op-ed in the FT calling for a US foreign policy that promotes “common good over shameless profit seeking”.
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There’s also ex-ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake, a former Arizona senator and Republican who endorsed Harris in September, even campaigning for her at a “country over party” event in his home battleground state. He was well-regarded in Ankara, with one diplomat telling us that Flake knew when to be a politician and when to be a diplomat, and it helped him “get sh*t done.”
But… a Republican in a Democrat’s cabinet, you ask?
This kind of thing is actually a hallowed tradition in American politics, not to mention a critical plot point in season seven of The West Wing. And Harris has already pledged to continue it, presumably in hopes of swaying on-the-fence voters and contributing to any post-electoral unity.
So Flake seems a solid chance, along with Republican ex-congressmen and veterans Adam Kinzinger (a Russia hawk) and Mike Gallagher (a China hawk). And in case you were wondering about Mitt Romney, he’s already ruled out joining a Harris cabinet.
As for Harris’s national security advisor? It’s widely assumed Harris will appoint her current advisor Phil Gordon. He’s a classic US foreign policy guy with expertise in European affairs plus extensive ties to the Middle East, even penning a book on failed regime change there.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Interestingly, multiple US ambassadorial roles still remain empty around the world (including in Colombia, Myanmar, and the Dominican Republic), drawing ire from appointees and host governments alike. This reflects the fact that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has been gripped by partisan antics, grinding its once-routine operations to a halt.
Oh, and while a Harris presidency would be more of a continuation, we’ll be watching whether a Trump victory again motivates US diplomats to step down. One serving diplomat told us they would consider bailing, but the electoral whiplash since 2016 has shown them that US politics will eventually roll on, while a pay cheque is harder to replace.
Anyway, these are just two examples of how down-ballot and off-ballot choices can still shape the way the US engages with the world. Happy voting!
Also worth noting:
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The Harris team has reportedly also assembled a team to develop a new approach to Africa, led by former US attorney-general Eric Holder.
A MESSAGE FROM INCOGNI
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Authorities in Pakistan’s second-largest city of Lahore have closed all primary schools for a week due to unprecedented levels of air pollution. Senior officials have blamed the high smog levels on the practice of burning crop waste across the border in India.
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🇬🇧 UK: The opposition Conservative Party has elected Kemi Badenoch as its new leader, after voters ousted the Tories back in July. Growing up in Nigeria, she worked in software and financial services before entering parliament in 2017.
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🇦🇺 Australia: The founder of encrypted messaging app Session has relocated from Australia to Switzerland after police visited the house of a company employee. Australia passed new laws in 2018 to compel encrypted networks to assist with criminal investigations, but it’s rarely been used.
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🇨🇴 Colombia: Authorities have arrested nine current and retired military personnel on weapons smuggling charges after someone used an army grenade in a Bogota attack last year. They’re the second arrests in as many months linking military personnel to arms trafficking.
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🇮🇷 Iran: Iran’s currency has weakened to a record low as speculation continues around an imminent Iranian response to Israel’s latest strikes. The rial has lost 27% of its value against the USD this year, and was already weakened by Washington’s decision to withdraw from a key nuclear pact with Iran in 2018.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world are googling today
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🇮🇹 Italians searched ‘Quincy Jones’ after news broke of the music legend’s death at the age of 91.
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🇦🇺 Australians looked up the neighbouring ‘Indonesia volcano eruption’, as news broke of a deadly eruption on Flores Island.
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And folks in 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea are googling ‘Baltasar Engonga’ as a scandal engulfs the country’s financial crimes chief plus the spouses of dozens of elites.
(Of course, the entire world is also googling some variation of ‘US elections’. And football results. Lots of football.)
EMBASSY OF THE DAY
Credits: India Architecture News.
Today we invite you to rest your doom-scrolling eyes on the wonderful architectural specimen that is the Belgian embassy in Delhi’s posh Chanakyapuri diplomatic enclave.
Designed by the late Satish Gujral — India’s legendary artist, sculptor, writer, and architect — the building draws inspiration from the rich Indian tradition of artisanal red brick, while contrasting rather nicely with the surrounding lush lawns.
The International Forum of Architects not only selected the embassy as one of the world’s 1000 finest buildings built in the 20th century, but it’s now also been listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
DAILY POLL
Which US cabinet position do you think matters most? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the polls are right and tomorrow's US election will be close?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤏 Yep – all that polling can't be wrong (38%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👐 Nope – the pollsters are just scared of getting it wrong again (58%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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👐 S.B: “Modern polling has not been able to keep up with the changes in how people communicate, and the bias in reaching them. They require so many ‘adjustments’ now that they are more like estimates than polls.”
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🤏 E.K.H: “It's not just the polls; every other data point anyone's been talking about also says the same thing.”
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👐 J.L.S: “Older right-leaning people don’t trust the pollsters; younger left-leaning people also know not to trust the strange texts/phone calls from possible pollsters, but likely scammers.”
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✍️ J.S.G: “No, because polling is not done in private spaces, but voting is.”
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