Plus: Today in history
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Iran’s presidential election is this Friday |
2️⃣ Blackrock blocked in Malaysia? |
3️⃣ Today in history |
Hi Intriguer. One exercise my former ambassador got us to do to hone our diplomatic tradecraft was an embassy-wide ‘super-forecasting’ competition about the likelihood of geopolitical events. It was nominally ‘for fun’, but we all knew what getting the wooden spoon meant for our next promotion.
Thankfully for Intrigue, we’ve got some actual in-house super-forecasters who foreshadowed back in April the news that’s now breaking worldwide: Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has secured his freedom via a US plea deal.
Meanwhile, you don’t need to be a super-forecaster to see where Iran’s elections this Friday will lead: all six approved candidates are effectively regime loyalists.
Let’s dive in.
Assange set free.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is now en route to the remote US Pacific commonwealth of Saipan, after a plea deal with the US justice department saw him released from UK custody overnight. He’ll appear in a US district court in Saipan tomorrow morning (Wednesday), where he’ll plead guilty to one of the 18 charges against him: conspiring to obtain and disclose classified US materials. With time already served, he’ll fly home to Australia after he enters his plea.
Top Israeli court orders conscription of ultra-Orthodox.
The unanimous ruling dismisses a long-standing exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students. The ruling could have political ramifications, because Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition relies on the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties that have long backed the waiver.
Zelenskyy replaces another senior general.
The Ukrainian president has announced he’s replacing a high-ranking officer in charge of Ukraine’s eastern front, after a commander in Ukraine’s Azov brigade publicly accused the general of incompetence and abuse of power. The news comes after weeks of limited but costly Russian advances.
Nvidia stocks slide.
After briefly becoming the world’s most valuable company last week, stocks in US chipmaker Nvidia have slid 13% in three days, erasing over $500B in market value. Many Nvidia investors may simply be looking to lock in gains (ie, sell) after a wild few months.
China’s lunar probe returns with first-ever ‘dark side’ samples.
The Chang'e-6 returned to Earth earlier today (Tuesday), after a nearly two-month mission to the dark side of the Moon. Scientists are hoping its samples will contain traces of ice, which could be harvested for water, oxygen, and hydrogen. China aims to send a crewed mission to the Moon by 2030.
TOP STORY
Low turnout expected for Iran’s snap election
Iranians will ✌️vote✌️ for their next president this Friday, after their last president died in a helicopter crash in the country’s mountainous north-west last month.
Those aggressive air quotes above are because polling suggests most Iranians won’t vote at all, and those who do vote must choose between candidates effectively picked by the country’s supreme ruler, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Still, the six approved candidates continue to proclaim their grand vision for the country over five live televised debates. So before we take a look at the line-up, let’s set the scene for what the incoming president will inherit.
A battered economy
While all candidates are pledging to fix the economy, that won’t be easy – they’ll be inheriting a rial that’s lost 94% of its value in a decade. Meanwhile, inflation is hovering around 40% – meat alone is up a juicy 70% from last year, making going vegan seem more pressing than trendy.
Still, a boost in oil sales (see below) has helped keep Iran’s economy afloat, though the World Bank projects a slow-down this year as global uncertainty persists and sanctions bite. The candidates are shrugging all that off, promising 8% growth. Their plans? Foggy. Meanwhile…
Thousands of sanctions
When the US pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal (the ‘JCPOA’) in 2018 and ratcheted sanctions back up, Iran’s oil exports collapsed from around two million to 250,000 barrels per day. But China has moved to fill the gap, buying around 1.3 million barrels from Iran per day, or 90% of Iran’s total oil exports.
Meanwhile, Iran has continued to: a) fund its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis; b) supply drones for Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities; and c) accumulate more than 30 times the JCPOA limit of enriched uranium, and at purity levels 30 times any civilian requirement. That’s why the UN’s nuclear watchdog just condemned Iran’s opaque approach to its nuclear program.
And yet back home, Iran has…
Unhappy citizens
Voter turnout hit its lowest level in the Islamic Republic’s history in 2021 (48%), then plunged to 41% in the parliamentary elections earlier this year.
And there’s data to suggest Friday’s election could go even lower: a Dutch institute found that 65% of the 77,216 Iranians it surveyed won't bother voting, and 34% weren’t even aware of the timing. Voting? What voting?
So… can a new president change any of that?
Not easily. Here are two examples involving the last guy: when people took to the streets in 2022 after Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of the so-called morality police, the protestors hardly mentioned the president’s name. This wasn’t because he was popular (he wasn’t) but because he was irrelevant. Folks directed their anger at the guy in control: the supreme leader.
And that brings us to the second example: when that same president died last month, Iran’s supreme leader urged the public not to worry, declaring that the government will operate “without the slightest disruption“. Now, was that a reassuring message, or a subtle reminder of who’s really in charge? Perhaps both.
And this brings us to the contenders…
80 hopefuls applied to run for president, but only six got the green light from the supreme leader’s hand-picked Guardian Council.
The candidate making the biggest splash is the sole ‘reformist’, Masoud Pezeshkian. Trained as a heart surgeon, the 69-year old has done a stint as health minister (2001-2005) and served five terms in parliament. He’s pledging to revive nuclear talks with the West and adopt a softer stance on the country's mandatory hijab policy, though he’s still very much a regime loyalist.
The remaining five hardliners all variously vow further disengagement from the West to instead seek cosier ties with Moscow and Beijing. The two favourites are Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (the parliamentary speaker) and Saeed Jalili (a former nuclear negotiator experienced in engaging with Western powers).
But this mix of candidates seems to follow the past pattern: it excludes anyone seen as a possible threat, but still offers the figleaf of a ‘hardliner v reformist’ choice to drive turnout and legitimise the status quo.
Still, if turnout keeps dropping, that strategy might not work much longer.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Abroad, whoever wins on Friday might get more room to manoeuvre in this emerging ‘multipolar’ world of ours. Have Western sanctions crippled your oil exports? China is a big, no-questions-asked buyer. Has UN-led isolation left you stranded? Another permanent UN Security Council member (Russia) will only be too happy to pose for photos.
But back home, the supreme ruler’s time is running out (he’s 85 and unwell); succession thereafter is still a black box; and the Iranian people are unhappy. Plus, when a regime optimises for loyalty over competence, it almost imposes mediocrity as a prerequisite. So against that kind of backdrop, it’s hard to see Iran’s next president succeeding where the last guy failed.
Also worth noting:
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The US will again allow Iran to run ~30 absentee voter stations in the US for Friday’s election. In Washington and New York, the Iranian Interests Section of the Pakistani embassy (Iran’s de facto consular presence in the US) will serve as voting locations.
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Iran’s former chamber of commerce president said yesterday (Monday) that sanctions against Iran have cost the nation $1.2T in damages between 2011 and 2023.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: An unexplained fire at a South Korean lithium battery-making plant has left at least 22 dead. South Korea is a leading manufacturer of lithium batteries, which are a key input for the green transition.
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🇷🇺 Russia: Moscow has summoned the US ambassador after claiming Russian forces intercepted five US-supplied and Ukrainian-fired missiles above Russian-occupied Crimea. There are claims the attack targeted a Soviet-era space centre, though cloud cover has limited initial visibility of any damage.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has said its impending new owner, US-based BlackRock, won’t play a role in a $3.9B consortium deal to privatise Malaysia’s major airports, after locals objected to Blackrock’s investments in Israel. Malaysia, a Muslim-majority country, doesn’t recognise Israel and has been vocal in its support for the Palestinians.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: President Javier Milei has met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with both leaders calling for the finalisation of a long-awaited free trade agreement between the EU and four South American nations. Argentina has large lithium deposits, which Germany needs in order to drive its own energy transition.
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🇧🇭 Bahrain: Bahrain and Iran have started talks on the resumption of diplomatic ties as well as the release of frozen Iranian funds, according to local media. Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, has long accused Iran of stirring up Bahrain’s Shiite majority against the ruling Sunni monarchy.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people around the world have been googling
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🇦🇷 Argentinians googled ‘Gmail’ after Google announced it’ll start deleting Google accounts that have been inactive for at least two years, starting December 1.
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🇬🇧 Folks in the UK searched ‘Tamayo Perry’, after news broke that the Pirates of the Caribbean actor has died after a shark attack in Hawaii.
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And 🇯🇵 Japanese netizens looked up ‘為替 ドル円’ (exchange dollar yen) after a top official vowed Japan’s central bank is prepared to prop up the yen, which is now trading near a 34-year low against the USD.
TODAY IN HISTORY
Credits: Getty Images.
On June 25 in 1950, the Korean War began after North Korean troops crossed the 38th parallel into South Korea. The Soviet Union and China came to the North’s aid, while the United Nations backed a US-led 22 country coalition defending the South. Three years and 2.5 million deaths later, the two sides agreed to pause hostilities, though they never signed a formal peace treaty.
Three quarters of a century later, the North and South are still technically at war.
DAILY POLL
Will Iran's elections shake up the country? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the world will meet its 2050 net-zero pledge?
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☀️ Yes, solar will bring it home (2%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚡ We'll be much cleaner, but not net-zero (36%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🏭 Not even close (61%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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🏭 B.P: “For solar to displace fossil fuels, huge improvements must be achieved in battery storage density, cost, and environmental product hazards.”
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🏭 V.N: “There just isn't the political will or the consensus or credibility in convincing the many constituencies of the painful solutions required.”
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⚡ A.B: “Much will be tied to development in the Global South, but I think consumption will continue to skyrocket further than clean energy can keep up.”
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☀️ A.T: “We have to — for the sake of us, our planet, and for future generations.”
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