Plus: Discovery of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Macron does Morocco |
2️⃣ Kim Jong Un fears for his life |
3️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
Hi Intriguer. Thoughts on best comeback ever? Damien Hirst surely has a contender. Remember him? He’s the British artist famous for works like The Physical Impossibility of Death in the Mind of Someone Living — literally just a massive tiger shark he got from a fisherman off Harvey Bay, suspended in a huge tank of formaldehyde. The first shark decayed, so he paid a fisherman to catch another.
Over the years, folks have looked at Hirst sell these kinds of artworks for $10M+ and thought to themselves, geez, I could’ve done that. And that’s where Hirst drops his famous zinger: “but you didn’t, did you”.
Much in this life is about the doing. Getting out there, doing stuff, and shaping events in your favour. And forgive me, dear Intriguer, but that’s what diplomacy is about, too.
And forgive me even more, dear Intriguer, but that’s why Emmanuel Macron is in Morocco this week – our lead story for today.
Hezbollah appoints new leader.
Hezbollah has announced former deputy leader Naim Qassem is now the group’s new chief, after a string of Israeli assassinations wiped out most of its leadership. Meanwhile, the US says it’s asked for an explanation after an Israeli strike on a residential block in northern Gaza killed dozens in an incident Washington is describing as “horrifying”. There’s been no immediate Israeli comment.
Ukraine and Russia discuss strikes on energy infrastructure.
The two foes are in early talks to halt attacks on energy infrastructure as the winter months approach, according to the Financial Times. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid have led to blackouts and grid failures, while Ukrainian drones have managed to hit Russia’s oil refineries deep within Russian territory. The two held similar talks in August until Ukraine mounted its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk.
Canada names names in India assassination row.
A senior Canadian official has now publicly accused India’s powerful home affairs minister Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Modi, of ordering a campaign of violence and intimidation against Sikh separatists in Canada. The Washington Post first reported Shah’s alleged role earlier this month, but only cited anonymous Canadian officials.
Trump and Harris enter final stretch.
Kamala Harris held a mass rally in Washington DC last night (Tuesday), while Donald Trump is now campaigning in Pennsylvania. We’re now ~140 hours out from election day. Btw – don’t miss the next edition of Election Intrigue, our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world (and vice versa).
Over 50 dead in Spanish flash floods.
Authorities are reporting at least 51 people have died as a result of flash floods in south-eastern Spain. The floods hit after a storm dumped a year’s worth of rain in a few hours.
China sends youngest-ever astronauts to space.
Beijing has declared the mission a success after its spacecraft successfully delivered a three-person crew to China’s Tiangong space station. China has redoubled its efforts after President Xi declared two years ago his vision to make the country into a “space power”.
TOP STORY
Macron does Morocco
The dotted-line ‘berm’ is the world’s second-longest wall, built by Morocco in the 1980s. Map credits: BBC
Who should pop up in Morocco’s parliament yesterday (Tuesday) but Emmanuel Macron, the president of France.
Why?
Sure, there are a few routine reasons which diplomats will have sprinkled through the talking points: Morocco is France’s top investment destination in Africa; France is Morocco’s number one trade partner; plus they work together on issues like climate change. We felt warm and fuzzy just typing that.
But a big part of this visit is really a juicy quid pro quo: Macron sees Morocco as an increasingly vulnerable irregular migration route from North Africa up into France, where migration has become a key concern for voters — and that’s benefiting Macron’s right-leaning political rivals like Marine Le Pen, who promise a tougher stance.
To make things trickier, French-Moroccan ties have been rocky lately: the Moroccans angrily denied 2021 accusations they were eavesdropping on Macron’s phone, then suspended ties after Macron slashed visas, and even refused French aid after last year’s huge earthquake.
But Macron and others in Europe are coming around to the view that stemming the flow of undocumented migrants is tough without the help of powers on the other side of the Mediterranean. So that’s Macron’s quid. What ‘quo’ does Morocco’s King Mohammed VI want in return?
Well, President Macron helpfully listed it all out in his 40-minute address, including:
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A promise of €10B in investments (including more French high speed rail)
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Help for Rabat’s 2030 FIFA World Cup co-hosting duties, and
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A coveted invite for the king to visit Macron at the Élysée next year, to mark 70 years since the king’s grandfather co-signed Morocco’s independence declaration.
But really the big ticket item was the one that got Macron a standing ovation:
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"For France, Western Sahara’s present and future fall under Morocco's sovereignty."
Why such a big deal? Western Sahara is a disputed, strategically located territory the size of New Zealand along Africa’s Atlantic coast. The UN considers it a “non-self-governing territory”, which gives you a sense how tricky its status is.
As colonial powers like France and Spain withdrew from North Africa, neighbours like Morocco and Mauritania laid claims over the turf, while a local Polisario Front movement (backed by Algeria and Libya) fought to establish an independent Sahrawi Republic. Then, the UN brokered a ceasefire in 1991.
Things simmered along for decades, and several Arab and African countries established consulates in the disputed territory, kinda formalising its very odd status quo. But then came the US-led Abraham Accords, aimed at normalising Israel’s place in the Middle East. And guess what Morocco wanted from the US in return for recognising Israel? Yes, Morocco wanted the US to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
So the US duly obliged in 2020, infuriating Morocco’s neighbour and rival Algeria, which wanted an independent Sahrawi Republic under its own influence. But dozens more have now variously followed the US, including Spain in 2022 and then Macron earlier this year.
And now this week, Macron has ratified his pivot in a joint declaration with Morocco’s king. As for his requests on migration? Macron told Morocco’s parliament, “many French people have high expectations on this. We need more results."
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
For years, France has tried to walk a tightrope between its two former territories: Morocco and Algeria. Now, it’s thrown its lot in with Morocco, and in doing so, it’s arguably ignored a) the beleaguered UN process for a referendum, b) the top EU court’s ruling on the need to consult the locals; and c) the world’s top court finding (among other things) that the evidence didn’t “establish any tie of territorial sovereignty between the territory of Western Sahara and the Kingdom of Morocco”.
So then… why do this? Well, immigration is one part of the equation, plus the Moroccan and French security services are long-time partners. But this really goes deeper:
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France’s post-colonial ties with Algeria remain toxic – just last year, Algeria’s president even reinstated an anti-French verse in the country’s anthem
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Meanwhile, Algeria has joined the BRICS and cultivated ties with the Russians and even the Iranians, perhaps leading Paris to conclude it’s a ‘lost cause’, and
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Algeria’s main source of leverage (gas) is limited by French diversification, long-term contracts, and Algeria’s own need for revenue.
So, with France’s footprint shrinking elsewhere in Africa, Macron’s coalition back home voicing more support for Morocco, and Morocco already controlling most of Western Sahara anyway, Macron crunched the data and felt it was time to move.
Also worth noting:
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While the US recognises broad Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, others like Spain and France specifically support Morocco’s 2007 proposal, which calls for an autonomous Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: There are signs the North’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un increasingly fears for his life, according to South Korea’s top spy agency. The spooks told a parliamentary inquiry that Kim has made 60% more public appearances this year, though has started using increased security measures like comms-jamming vehicles and drone detectors.
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🇮🇹 Italy: A widespread hacking scandal is rocking Italy this week, after word emerged that a private company hacked and sold the personal information of thousands of Italians including President Sergio Mattarella and former PM Matteo Renzi. Some of the data was apparently used to blackmail victims in a scheme that raised $3.4M.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Social media platform TikTok has announced it’s fired around 500 content moderators working in Malaysia, and is planning to replace them with AI algorithms. Malaysia made the world’s most TikTok content removal requests last year, lodging over 2,000 formal requests.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Brazil’s environmental agency has handed out $69M in fines to cattle ranchers and meat packing companies that raised or bought cattle raised on illegally cleared Amazon terrain. Cattle ranching and logging are two of the biggest drivers of deforestation in the Amazon.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: Turkey has launched an oil and gas exploration mission off the coast of Somalia, building on years of security cooperation between the two countries. While Mogadishu has welcomed the initiative, regional neighbours caution the project could ignite territorial disputes in an already volatile region.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
We rounded up some jobs we thought you might like
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Analyst, global customer experience strategy @ Ralph Lauren in London
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VP, Equities Compliance Officer @ Citi Bank in Hong Kong
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Public Policy Manager @ Meta in Buenos Aires
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Senior eCommerce Manager @ Luxottica in Milan
DISCOVERY OF THE DAY
Survey imagery of the ancient ‘Valeriana’ Mayan ruins found under Mexico’s forest canopy. Credits: Antiquity.
It’s one thing to discover a long-lost city, but to do it by accident? What a flex.
Luke Auld-Thomas, a PhD student from Tulane University, told the BBC he was reviewing some old survey data he found on “something like page 16 of Google search” (we know that feeling). It caught his attention and, upon closer examination, he realised the dense canopy forest was hiding the ruins of a city that could’ve housed as many as 50,000 people at its peak from 750 to 850 AD. Luke and his team have now gone on to publish their findings in the latest edition of the Antiquity journal, which just dropped yesterday.
DAILY POLL
How are you feeling about next week's US election? |
Yesterday’s poll: Which industry do you think governments should protect most?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 Manufacturing (16%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ✈️ Defense (32%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📚 Education (13%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛢️ Energy (13%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤖 Tech (14%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☄️ Mining (1%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💼 Professional (0.7%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚫 None (6%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (Write It!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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✈️ M.K.A: “Maybe defense will not always be the most important industry to keep domestic, but it is in our current world stage.”
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📈 A.P: “I don't know if ‘protect’ is the right word so much as ‘secure’. Between COVID and the Russo-Ukraine War, we've seen how fragile supply chains can be. I can't endorse full protectionism, but hyper-streamlined just-in-time manufacturing died in 2020, and we can't go back.”
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🤖 R.L: “Tech increasingly affects every facet of governance and the economy, including national security, education, and energy. That needs to be the focus.”
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🚫 J.E: “The government shouldn't be ‘protecting’ any industry. It should be doing all it can to create, and stabilize an open and free area for all competitors to compete with each other. The best, most innovative ideas should be allowed to grow and succeed — it's usually the addition of government that creates corruption.”
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✍️ J.S: “Agriculture! Food security and self-sufficiency is often underrated but they are vital to a healthy population and functioning country.”
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