🌍 Madagascar’s coup and you
Plus: Meme of the day
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Today’s briefing: |
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Good morning Intriguer. One thing that I, as a self-professed Gen Z-obsessed-Millennial, should have foreseen this year is the sweeping impact that Gen Z would have on global geopolitics.
From the Middle East to South Asia, Gen Z have shifted their political engagement to political activism, and have taken to the streets to challenge what they see as unjust and mid. The latest country to feel this Gen Z effect is Madagascar, which seems to have just had another coup. It’s our top story for today.
Number of the day
14
That’s how many nations just won a three-year term on the UN’s Human Rights Council, comprising 47 members who meet to discuss current issues and make non-binding resolutions. The new members include Angola, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, India, Iraq, Italy, Mauritius, Pakistan, Slovenia, South Africa, the UK, and Vietnam.
Coup-ed up
It seems Colonel Michael Randrianirina is now in charge.
We knew we were overdue for another coup, but our money was on some place like Thailand, where military takeovers drop more often than seasons of Dancing with the Stars.
And yet here we are, briefing you on a coup in East Africa’s beautiful island nation of Madagascar. So here’s what you need to know.
Intriguers won’t be entirely surprised, as we’ve been tracking the Gen Z-led demonstrations since late September (and even did a whole Gen Z briefing). As can often happen, initial anger at corruption and water/power cuts quickly morphed into a broader anti-government movement calling for President Rajoelina’s resignation.
Then last week we flagged he appointed a general as his prime minister, claiming it was to restore order, but it whiffed to us more of desperation to keep the military on side.
And sure enough, soldiers from Madagascar’s elite and influential CAPSAT unit then joined the demonstrators over the weekend. Two quick fun facts about CAPSAT:
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It’s a French acronym for the extremely non-elite and non-influential-sounding Personnel Administration and Technical and Administrative Services Corps, and
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Lest you laugh at them, they’re the same military unit that first installed Rajoelina after the last coup in 2009 (he later won presidential elections in 2018).
Anyways, this CAPSAT cameo is when the excrement really hit the ventilator:
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Rajoelina accused his opponents of trying to assassinate him and stage a coup
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So he disappeared, with claims a French military aircraft whisked him to safety
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Meanwhile, the opposition moved to impeach Rajoelina for bailing, so…
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Rajoelina tried dissolving parliament from hiding, but it was too late (even his own party backed the impeachment motion).
And that’s how we got to today: CAPSAT’s chief (the colonel above) is now in charge and suspending key institutions, promising to hold elections within two years. Ol’ Rajoelina? He’s gone quiet.
And the rest of the world is staying notably silent too, likely because this brand of ‘constitutional coup’ blurs the lines of legitimacy:
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Technically, the old guy got booted via impeachment
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Technically, the new guy got a supreme court invite to take over, and
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Technically, the democratic flame still flickers because the lower house continues.
Plus with major powers now competing for influence across Africa, most capitals are realistically waiting to see who emerges on top before backing anyone. If (say) the US were to condemn this as a coup, the new rulers would run to (say) China or Russia.
But here are three quick global ripples in the meantime:
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🇫🇷 Paris
The former colonial power naturally has sway, but it also has baggage: many locals didn’t like that Rajoelina apparently held secret French citizenship (getting whisked off the island via a French military aircraft won’t have helped).
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🇮🇳 Delhi
India wants to be top dog in the Indian Ocean and sees Madagascar as critical, with the Indian navy identifying the Mozambique Channel as a “primary area of maritime interest” a decade ago, and running a military listening post there since 2007. Delhi will be hedging its bets to ensure it’s tight with whoever holds the power.
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📉 Markets
With ~30% of global tanker traffic passing through the Mozambique Channel, supply chain executives will be bracing for any spill-over into maritime operations.
But diving deeper into specific sectors, just recall that Madagascar single-handedly supplies the world with 80% of its vanilla, ~5% of its nickel (critical for the energy transition), and ~3% of its cobalt (EV batteries and electronics). And while single-digits might sound small, in today’s rattled world, that’s still enough to spike prices.
Intrigue’s Take
Madagascar’s political instability stems not from some ethno-religious or even ideological divide, but rather a) elite rivalry for power and resources, fuelling b) massive inequality, in turn both jointly undermining c) efforts to build credible institutions.
You can see that in the story of (ex?) President Rajoelina himself, who was a media mogul before bursting onto the political scene as the young mayor of his nation’s capital, then quickly leading protests that toppled Madagascar’s government in 2009. A couple of decades later, he ended up the very thing he said he was against (an out-of-touch elite).
And of course, constantly hovering in Madagascar’s shadows is that classic, self-fulfilling prophecy of geopolitics: an influential, politically-involved military. Try curbing that influence, and guess what CAPSAT might do next.
Sound even smarter:
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Russia renewed its 2018 military pact with Madagascar in 2022, and will inevitably be on the next flight to Antananarivo in a race for influence, though we doubt they can really offer African partners much while burning resources in Ukraine.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
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🇮🇱 ISRAEL – Ceasefire wobble? Comment: Separately, Israel just lost its FIFA World Cup men’s qualifier against Italy, meaning soccer’s governing body (and its 2026 hosts in Canada, Mexico, and the US) avoid the boycott debate this time around. |
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🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS – Dutch courage. Comment: And… why would the US want this particular CEO gone? The most credible speculation we’ve seen is he was trying to pull a classic asset strip, shifting anything of value to a new shell company in hopes of evading US controls and routing chip production to China, instead of (say) Europe’s automakers. There are reports Dutch employees gave authorities a heads-up. |
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🇨🇳 CHINA – You shall not pass. Comment: You might wonder why this ban is only happening now, more than three years into Putin’s war. It’s partly an attempt to level the playing field, as Putin’s early ban on Western airline overflight gave a massive advantage to China’s carriers. It also comes as US-China trade ties hit more turbulence, with both sides looking for leverage. |
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🇪🇺 EU – Back on track? |
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🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA – Pay the piper. Comment: Earlier Aussie fears around the Trump 2.0 future of the AUKUS pact seem to have subsided, though the Pentagon’s review is still underway. Prime Minister Albanese is due to meet Trump in DC next week — the PM faced domestic criticism for taking so long to meet his US counterpart, though this was probably a calculated move to avoid getting caught in Trump’s crossfire. |
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🇺🇸 UNITED STATES – On the dotted line. Comment: Only one outlet (the right-leaning One America News) signed the new arrangement before yesterday’s deadline. Defence Secretary Hegseth isn’t budging for now, so there’s a chance it’ll end up becoming a First Amendment lawsuit. |
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🇳🇬 NIGERIA – School’s out! |
Extra Intrigue
The Intrigue jobs board 💼
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Foreign & Security Policy Director @ Heinrich Böll Foundation in DC
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Political and Communications Internship @ British Embassy in Santiago
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Postdoc Researcher, Democracy Work Revisited @ Hertie School in Berlin
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Senior Operations Assistant @ Asian Development Bank in Solomon Islands
Meme of the day
Courtesy of our meme-lord @DickerPiccs.
Oh… just us?
Today’s poll
Do you think outlets should be able to report on national security leaks? |
Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think deserves most credit for this Gaza peace deal?
🇺🇸 Trump (40%)
🇮🇱 Netanyahu (2%)
🏴 Hamas (1%)
🗣️ Mediators like Qatar and Egypt (31%)
✊ Protestors around the world (23%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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🇺🇸 J.S: “Love him or hate him, gotta credit Trump for pushing this deal through. Whether it holds or not is another question.”
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✊ D.M: “Protestors made this an issue that world leaders HAD to care about, putting pressure on key players to pursue any sort of deal.”
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🗣️ A.P: “As in any deal, it's the people who do the preparation work who make it happen, and get no credit when it is done.”