Plus: A royal cameo
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Modi’s manifesto for India’s election |
2️⃣ A royal cameo |
3️⃣ Apple’s Tim Cook lands in Vietnam |
Hi Intriguer. I was lucky enough to serve as a diplomat in Hong Kong, truly one of the most electric cities in the world.
I landed in 2019, just as mass protests hit the streets over Beijing’s efforts to pull Hong Kong closer into its orbit. One of the most prominent pro-democracy figures to emerge was Nathan Law, who’s now living in exile in the UK.
Nathan has kindly shared with us his thoughts on the latest in Hong Kong, his political asylum in the UK, and what he misses most about home. Our chat with Nathan will be available this weekend to anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two or more friends (using your unique referral code down below).
For today, our briefing leads with India’s elections, which kick off this Friday.
PS – Do you live around DC? Join us for a chat and drink with spy-turned-author Jack Beaumont, on Wednesday April 24th!
US House to vote on separate military aid bills.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has unveiled plans to bring separate Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan military aid bills to a vote. The Senate already passed a joint $95B package in February, but Johnson is splitting the proposal into its parts following opposition to the Ukraine component. The votes could take place as soon as this Friday. Members of Johnson’s Republican Party have previously threatened to oust him as Speaker if he brings a Ukraine aid package to a vote.
Israel mulls retaliation.
The Israeli war cabinet will meet again for a third consecutive day today (Tuesday) to discuss a response to Iran’s weekend attack. Israel’s defence minister has told his US counterpart that Israel has no choice but to retaliate, while its foreign minister is calling for more sanctions. Western allies are still urging Israel not to escalate further amid fears it could precipitate a wider war.
China’s economy beats growth target.
According to official data, China’s GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, beating expectations of 4.6%. The latest numbers are good news for Beijing, which is seeking to pump new life into its economy by boosting manufacturing. But weaker retail figures suggest demand at home is still frail.
Microsoft to invest $1.5B in UAE AI firm.
US tech giant Microsoft has announced a deal to invest $1.5B in G42, the UAE’s leading artificial intelligence firm. The agreement reportedly emerged after secret talks with the US government, during which the UAE firm promised to end any cooperation with Beijing and pivot to American technology.
Australia designates bishop stabbing as terrorist attack.
Police have declared that yesterday’s stabbing of a high-profile Orthodox bishop in Sydney was a religiously motivated "terrorist act". Monday’s attack came two days after a fatal mass stabbing at a Sydney mall, which was later found not to have political or religious motivations.
Copenhagen’s historic stock exchange burns.
It’s unclear what caused today’s fire to rip through the iconic building, which dates back to the 17th Century. People could be seen carrying out large paintings to save them from the fire.
TOP STORY
Modi unveils election manifesto as ~1 billion Indians prepare to vote
Few world leaders enter a re-election campaign as sure of winning as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but that’s no excuse to slack off. So last Sunday, just before voting kicks off this Friday, his Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party, or BJP) unveiled its election manifesto named Modi’s Guarantee.
What’s in the manifesto? The pro-Hindu BJP is promising things on the home front that’ll be familiar to many of us, like:
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More jobs – unemployment among India’s youth is triple the country’s overall unemployment rate
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New infrastructure – they’re promising 5,000km of new train tracks each year, and energy independence by going nuclear and green
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Support for families – the country’s poorest folks will continue to receive up to 5kg of grains per month under India’s ‘free ration’ program, which Modi is extending for another five years
But Modi’s party is also proposing some ideas at home that’ll grab attention:
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A Unified Civil Code (UCC) – Indians are already subject to common criminal law, but personal matters like marriage, divorce and inheritance are often left to individual communities and faiths to regulate. The idea of bringing that under a single law rattles some of India’s minority groups
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Modi is also adding a dash of inspiration, with promises such as putting an Indian on the Moon and bidding to host the 2036 Summer Olympics.
Meanwhile, looking abroad, Modi is pledging to:
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Lift India’s international profile, especially through soft power (he’s promising to open Yoga and Ayurveda Institutes across the world)
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Become a permanent member of the UN Security Council (though regional rival and original permanent member China will likely tap the brakes)
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Build more infrastructure along its troubled borders with Pakistan, Myanmar, and China, and
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Expand India’s “defence footprint” in the region (framed locally as a response to China’s increased presence in the Indian Ocean).
But it’s worth looking at what’s missing from the manifesto, too.
India’s opposition says Modi’s manifesto is “meek” on China, making little reference to the ongoing border dispute that killed 20 Indian troops in 2020.
The opposition also alleges Modi has no plan to tackle inflation, while some economists criticise the absence of structural reforms. Others, however, are commending the way the manifesto resists the temptation to firehose more cash at voters, which can trigger concerns around India’s budget.
So what’s next?
Starting on Friday, some 970 million people will be eligible to head to the polls over the coming six weeks to elect new members in the lower house of parliament. That process alone, in the world’s largest democracy, is expected to cost more than $8B.
And despite opposition parties joining forces under a new ‘INDIA’ coalition, every bookie (and diplomat) is predicting a landslide for the BJP, delivering a rare third term for Modi.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This level of one-party dominance in India’s political system was unthinkable just a few years ago. So then… what changed? It’s Modi. He has a charisma and confidence that resonates with India’s Hindu-majority population.
That’s why this 75-page manifesto is light on detail, but heavy on Modi (his photo is on almost every page).
Of course, by leaning into India’s Hindu nationalism, Modi has also spooked some folks, with the opposition claiming he’ll amend India’s constitution to ditch the country’s secular roots if he secures the required two-thirds parliamentary majority. For his part, Modi says this speculation is “meaningless”.
But either way, it all goes to the question of what this election is really about – not so much who wins, but where Modi plans to take India next.
Also worth noting:
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The highest polling station in the world is located in India at an altitude of 4,650m (15,256 ft), in the heart of the Himalayas.
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As many as 45 million people in India have turned 18 since the last election in 2019, and would now be eligible to vote for the first time.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan has asked the World Court to throw out a case brought by Armenia accusing it of ethnic cleansing and violating a UN anti-discrimination treaty. The move comes as tensions along their shared border ramp up once again.
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🇵🇱 Poland: Authorities have ordered record cuts for renewable energy generation as favourable conditions spurred production beyond the Polish grid’s limits. Coal remains the primary source of energy in Poland, covering over 60% of the country’s electricity needs in 2023.
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🇲🇲 Myanmar: Armed rebels say they’ve repelled a military attack seeking to recapture the strategic town of Myawaddy, which the ruling junta lost last week. Most overland trade between Myanmar and Thailand passes through Myawaddy, making it a stinging loss for government forces.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: A new report claims some of Europe’s biggest brands, like Zara and H&M, rely on Brazilian cotton linked to deforestation and human rights abuses. While deforestation rates in the Amazon are falling, the nearby plateaus of Brazil’s Cerrado region are being cleared to make way for industrial agriculture.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: Pirates say they’ve released a Bangladesh-flagged vessel and 23 members of the crew after a $5M ransom was paid. The MV Abdullah was carrying coal from Mozambique to the UAE when it was hijacked off the coast of Somalia last month.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what folks around the world have been googling
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Netizens in 🇻🇳 Vietnam have been searching for ‘Tim Cook’ as the Apple CEO visits the Southeast Asian country, a key part of his company’s non-China supply chains.
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🇸🇪 Swedes have been googling ‘Jakob Silfverberg’, the NHL star who’s set to return home to Sweden after 11 seasons with the Anaheim Ducks.
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And folks in 🇳🇬 Nigeria looked up ‘NYSC’, after the National Youth Service Corps announced the next dates for Nigeria’s national service year.
Dive deeper on 🇮🇱 Israel and 🇮🇷 Iran.
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🎧 If you like Intrigue poured directly into your ears, don’t miss the latest podcast episode of Intrigue Explained.
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📺 Prefer the full sensory experience? We also appeared on the latest episode of 2WAY, with a cameo by a former US House Speaker.
And speaking of cameos…
CAMEO OF THE DAY
Star Trek has long been famous for its cameos, ranging from Joan Collins and Whoopi Goldberg to Stephen Hawking and The Rock. But we were still surprised to learn that Jordan's King Abdullah II made a cameo in a 1996 episode of Star Trek: Voyager while visiting the US as a young prince. Of course, it was only a non-speaking (and uncredited) role, because not even a royal title can trump the union rules of the Screen Actors Guild of America.
DAILY POLL
How much did world affairs shape your last voting decision? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you see things headed between Israel and Iran?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🕴️ Now that they've evened out the score, they'll return to their shadow war (59%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🔥 They've now crossed the point of no return, and things could get ugly (39%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🕴️ C.L: “Israel is busy in Gaza and containing Hezbollah, and won't benefit from escalating things in the region, which I'm sure is what its Western allies keep saying. Iran has been content to have other people (and countries) take the bullets for them via its regional proxies, while maintaining very thin plausible deniability. They had to answer for a direct attack on their embassy, but I don't see them wanting to escalate to a direct war.”
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🔥 I.F: “Netanyahu could probably strengthen his position by attacking Iran, so I think there's a good chance of things getting even worse in the region.”