Plus: Perk of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Modi’s musical chairs |
2️⃣ A political crisis brewing in Indonesia? |
3️⃣ Perk of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Hello from the day after the Democratic National Convention here in Chicago. Judging by the absolute scenes last night at the Brandi Carlile-headlined afterparty, there’ll be many a sore head this morning.
Thankfully, mine isn’t one of them because I’ve got to be sharp, insightful, and witty (there’s a first for everything) to record our Election Intrigue podcast in just a little while. Head here to find out what Kristen and I made of having back row seats in the United Center for the week’s festivities (including all the feverish speculation about a final surprise guest, all culminating in the ultimate surprise: no final guest at all).
Now, despite what many politicians would have you believe, the world doesn’t stop turning just because they’ve commandeered a microphone, so in today’s briefing we head to Kyiv where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just alighted from a ten-hour train journey. Why is he there? What are his goals? What does he think of red borscht, Ukraine’s national dish? For the answers to at least two of those questions, read on!
Kamala Harris accepts Democratic nomination.
The vice-president has pledged to “chart a new way forward” while closing off the four-day Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Harris said she’ll ensure “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”, pledged to “stand strong with Ukraine and our Nato allies”, and vowed she’ll “always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself”, while making sure “the Palestinian people can realise their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.”
Top Taiwan officials in ‘secret’ talks with US.
The island’s foreign minister (Lin Chia-lung) and national security adviser (Joseph Wu) have been in the US this week for what are known as ‘special channel’ talks. Held quietly in an unofficial location outside DC, they’ve long been an opportunity for the US and Taiwan to talk without irritating China.
Israel issues new Gaza evacuation orders.
Thousands are leaving parts of central Gaza once again after Israel issued new evacuation orders. Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that ceasefire-hostage talks are now stuck on Israeli demands over its future military presence in Gaza.
Argentine senate defies Milei on pension bill.
The senate has approved a bill to increase pension spending, in direct defiance of President Milei’s strict austerity policy. The pension boost will cost the country around 0.4% of its GDP, and highlights Milei’s weakness in congress, where his party lacks a majority.
Taliban places new restrictions on women.
The group has passed new ‘vice and virtue’ laws, including bans on women from singing, reciting, or reading aloud in public. Other rules include bans on music, as well as the publication of images of living beings.
TOP STORY
Modi’s high-stakes game of musical chairs
In the global game of musical chairs, Modi has chosen to hover politely between seats. Sometimes (like last month) that means a hug with Putin the same day Putin’s missiles hit a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Other days (like today, Friday), it means arriving in Kyiv after a quick visit to one of Ukraine’s top backers (Poland).
So what’s Modi up to in Ukraine and Poland?
Indian officials (and outlets) are leaning into the ‘historic’ angle, whether it’s India’s first prime ministerial visit to Poland since 1979, its first-ever to modern Ukraine, or (depending on your criteria) its first to a warzone abroad.
But none of this really explains why he’s there. So here are three possible factors.
First, Modi himself is staying on message, declaring "we support dialogue and diplomacy for the quick restoration of peace".
And sure, he’s now one of the few world leaders with any meaningful status or influence in both Kyiv and Moscow. His supporters are now emphasising this exact point as further proof of his (and India’s) arrival as a global player. But will any of that access translate into a meaningful mediation here?
Neither side seems interested, and you’d have to go back to Krishna Menon’s 1950s role in Indochina to see a comparable example in India’s history. But still, Modi might see his visit as smoothing out the hits he took for hugging Putin.
Second, take a look at India’s defence industrial base.
While India is now hustling to make more weapons at home, that’ll take time. Until then, it’s still the world’s largest arms importer, getting half its kit from Russia. So with Russia’s war now diverting supply while raising questions about quality, India is pushing to diversify. And wouldn’t ya know it, but…
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Poland, a former Warsaw Pact state, knows how to repair India’s gear from the Soviet-era. And yep, Poland’s PM has confirmed he and Modi indeed talked about “intensification in terms of the defence industry."
Oh, and you’ll never guess the other place that’s key to India’s defence industry:
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Yep, Ukraine: most of India’s frontline warships, 100 of its military transport aircraft, and most of its military choppers rely on Ukrainian manufacturers like Motor Sich, Antonov, and Zorya-Mashproekt, including for advanced gas turbine engines.
So part of Modi’s regional balancing act here is pure military necessity.
Of course, like Russia, Ukraine’s ability to serve customers abroad is now curbed by the war at home. But there are persistent rumblings of Ukraine and India aiming for joint venture facilities in India, so we’ll be looking for any word on that.
And third, Modi is arguably just responding to changes within Europe’s own balance of power. Sure – Paris, London, Berlin and Brussels are still key, which is why Modi mostly looked Westward during his first 27 visits to the EU. But he’ll also have noticed how others like Poland now throw their weight around more.
So to close, let’s be clear – none of this means India is stepping away from Russia. To the contrary, it actually confirms India’s musical chairs strategy. In fact, just as Modi was boarding his 10-hour train to Kyiv, word broke that India has now overtaken China as the world's top importer of Russian oil, getting a record 44% of its supply from Russia. Before the war? It was less than 1%.
Oh, and guess where India’s defence secretary is right now? Yep, in the US.
So somebody smash that ‘play’ button, and let the musical chairs continue.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Our co-founder Helen spoke at a security summit in Doha earlier this year, and one of Singapore’s legendary diplomats was a speaker there, too: Bilahari Kausikan. He was really on-the-money when he described the way more players are now approaching our world as “omnidirectional”. Capitals will lean any and all ways, depending on their interests and capabilities at the time.
It’s an apt description for all leaders who’ve now visited both wartime Kyiv and Moscow: Hungary, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Guinea-Bissau and now India, which has really gone from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
India’s foreign minister (Jaishankar) even wrote a book about it, with trademark lines like, “many friends, few foes, great goodwill, more influence.”
So okay, that’s India’s play. And sitting in Delhi, with a nuclear-armed foe to your west (Pakistan), a nuclear-armed rival to your north-east (China), and your nuclear-armed weapons supplier starting a war to the north-west, there’s a certain logic behind India’s strategy.
But will it work? Well, you could argue it’s already working. Look at the way Western leaders have responded to Modi’s Putin hug, or his Russian oil spree. Pretty muted. And not because the West doesn’t mind, but because its need for an aligned India (to balance China) outweighs its dismay at a multi-aligned India.
A MESSAGE FROM ELECTION INTRIGUE
Delivered: Your Update from the Democratic National Convention
Sorting out the piles of business cards lining their pockets can wait ‘till this weekend. First priority, Intrigue co-founder John and Washington editor Kristen will take you through the DNC in this week’s edition of Election Intrigue.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇲🇳 Mongolia: While Ukrainian forces continue to hold territory in Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has rushed troops to… Mongolia. They’re participating in joint counter-terrorism military exercises, which the two neighbours have alternately hosted each year since 2008.
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🇳🇴 Norway: The Norwegian oil and gas regulator has called on companies to boost investment into exploration and production as a way to slow the nation’s eventual decline in output. Norway is the EU’s biggest gas supplier and a significant source of oil.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: A political crisis is brewing after parliament moved to reverse parts of a top court’s ruling aimed at fostering more political competition. Protestors took to the streets and blocked the vote yesterday (Thursday), angry that the pro-government parliament is trying to preserve the status quo, which favours the ruling coalition.
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🇨🇦 Canada: The Pentagon has announced a $20M grant to build a cobalt refinery in Ontario, Canada. With China controlling nearly 80% of the global cobalt market, the move is part of the US strategy to diversify its critical mineral supply chain across allied nations.
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🇨🇩 Congo: Health authorities have registered another 1,000 cases of mpox in a week, as local and international authorities sound the alarm for more vaccination funds. This week, Thailand also recorded the first-ever mpox case of the main new variant in Asia.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue
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Read: Check out this profile on the young defence tech tycoon Palmer Luckey, billed as “the black mullet-, chin beard-, Hawaiian shirt-, cargo short-, sandal-clad possible savior of America”.
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Listen: Ever heard of Mongolian throat-singing Rockband Uuhai? It’s the perfect background music for a serious workout.
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Watch: You’ve probably been eating some fake foods, so take a look at the most duped food items in the world.
PERK OF THE DAY
Credits: An Intriguer who prefers to remain anonymous
One of the cool things about joining the foreign service is you get to go through those ‘diplomat’ lines at the airport. But two things usually end up happening:
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After skipping the queue, you then just wait with everyone else at that greatest of equalisers: the luggage carousel; or
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You find there’s only one ‘diplomats’ booth open, and it’s not moving because another diplomat in front is arguing why their poodle shouldn’t have to go into quarantine.
Anyway, once you finally get out of the airport, there are some other strange perks, too. An anonymous Intriguer has just sent in the above cracker: it’s a photo inside a supermarket in Batumi, the Black Sea resort and port city in Georgia. And yes, aisle 7 is reserved for diplomats. A supermarket.
You see, dear Intriguer? This is why you should serve your country abroad.
FRIDAY QUIZ
Miners in Botswana have discovered the second-biggest diamond in history this week, weighing in at 2,492 carats. What. A. Unit.
Which country has the world's biggest diamond reserves? |
How many elements make a diamond? |
Who owns the biggest-ever diamond? |
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