🌍 More incidents in the South China Sea

Hi Intriguer. Years ago, I went along to a meeting with Xu Hong, the top lawyer in China’s foreign ministry (who later ended up as China’s ambassador to The Hague).

In those days, there was still hope that disputes in the South China Sea were legal issues that could be resolved in the comfort of a boardroom.

Today’s briefing (on the latest maritime clashes between China and the Philippines) shows just how much things have changed. Water cannons are now doing much more of the talking.

– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

A second checkpoint. Israel says it will open a second screening checkpoint to increase aid into Gaza, where a visiting UN official has said “meaningful humanitarian operation is impossible”. The move comes hours before a UN General Assembly vote on a non-binding resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Xi in Vietnam. Xi Jinping has arrived in Vietnam today (Tuesday) to announce several joint projects, including a new rail link. It’s Xi’s first trip to neighbouring Vietnam in six years, and we wouldn’t be surprised if his travel plans were hurried along by President Biden’s visit to Vietnam in September.

Not playing games. A San Francisco court has ruled in favour of video games developer Epic Games (you’ve got them to thank for Fortnite) in its suit against Google. A jury unanimously found that Google (which plans to appeal) is engaging in anti-competitive conduct, a result that could change the basics of how app stores operate.

MINUSMA ends. The 10-year UN peacekeeping mission to Mali officially came to an end yesterday after the Malian military junta declared it a “failure” in June and ordered it to leave. The UN had previously cited human rights violations by the junta and its Russian supporters, the mercenary Wagner group.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

China’s President Xi Jinping probably has a few objectives driving his strategy in the South China Sea right now. He wants to:

• Expand China’s sense of security by subduing its periphery

• Control maritime trade routes that are key to China’s economy

• Exert control over the sea’s fishing and energy resources, and

• Test US commitment to its allies like the Philippines.

And Xi is pursuing this strategy with:

• ‘Grey-zone’ tactics like water cannons, to avoid crossing the threshold into acts of war, and

• ‘Salami-slicing’ tactics of gradual expansion, to craft an image of restraint while casting responses from others as escalation.

So what are the region’s options here?

The US could potentially declare the waters to fall within its defence treaty with the Philippines, but a similar 2014 move in support of Japan doesn’t seem to have shaped China’s approach.

President Marcos Jr is doubling down on his alliance with the US, while seeking support from friends like Japan and Australia to bolster deterrence.

But the weekend’s events suggest this isn’t having much impact either.

Also worth noting: 

• The Chief of Staff of the Philippines military was aboard one of the ships targeted by China’s water cannons over the weekend.

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🌱 COP28 CORNER

Delegates at COP28 have released a draft text of the first-ever global stocktake to assess humanity’s progress on climate issues. The draft calls for a reduction in fossil fuel use “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” rather than a full “phase-out” of fossil fuels, as some had hoped. 

There’ve been some colourful responses from around the world: 

• “The text as it now stands is disappointing. It is insufficient and not adequate to address the problem we are here to tackle. The science is clear: we need to phase out fossil fuels.” – EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra

• “We can live with this text as long as we leave here with an understanding that this means a massive investment in renewable energy in developing countries.” – Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley 

• “COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure. The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word.” – Former US Vice President Al Gore

• “The Marshall Islands did not come here to sign our death warrant. We came here to fight for 1.5C and for the only way to achieve that: a fossil fuel phase-out." – Marshall Islands rep John Silk

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol travelled to the Netherlands yesterday (Monday) for talks about a potential “chip alliance”. South Korea is a top semiconductor manufacturer, while The Netherlands leads the world in chip-making equipment. 

2. 🇵🇱 Poland: Parliament elected former EU Council President Donald Tusk as prime minister last night after weeks of political wrangling. The centrist has pledged a more pro-EU stance, prompting an angry opposition leader to accuse him of being “a German agent”.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Canberra has announced plans to halve immigration within two years. The policy is aimed at reducing pressure on housing and infrastructure, after a record 510,000 people moved to Australia in the twelve months to June 2023.

4. 🇨🇺 Cuba: Local authorities claim to have thwarted a terrorist attack by a Florida man who arrived on the island via jet-ski. The arrest came after Cuba published a list of alleged terrorists, including a candidate for mayor of Florida's Miami-Dade County.

5. 🇰🇪 Kenya: Millions of Kenyans suddenly found themselves without power on Sunday after the third national blackout in three months. Officials are investigating if the outages are being caused by sabotage. 

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what folks around the world tweeted about yesterday

• ​🇬🇪 Georgians were tweeting about Russian opposition figure “Alexei Navalny”, who has reportedly gone missing from a Russian prison.

• 🇮🇩 #TikTok was trending in Indonesia after the social media giant managed to circumvent Indonesia’s strict e-commerce regulations by purchasing a local company.

• 🇸🇪 And Swedes were talking about the Swedish-born EU diplomat “Johan Floderus”, who was formally charged with espionage by an Iranian court on Sunday and could face the death penalty.

MAP OF THE DAY

Men’s sporting championships are distributed fairly evenly around the world and are mostly predictable: Australia reigns supreme in cricket, South Africa in rugby, Argentina in soccer, and Canada in ice hockey. Germany is the only listed country currently holding two titles, having won the field hockey world championship in January, and beating the US favourites to win the basketball title in September.

We would just note the above map doesn’t reflect the fact that a British doctor won last week’s World Mullet Championships in Australia.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: If you could travel back in time to spend a week with an ancient civilisation, where would you go?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🗡️ Ancient Rome (38%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛶 The Vikings (9%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌴 Ancient Egypt (18%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👑 The Ashanti empire (3%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌵 The Aztecs (11%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐎 The Mongols (3%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☀️ The Mughal empire (4%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐉 China's Song or Tang dynasties (5%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)

Your two cents:

• 🌵 A.R: “Their lasting influence on the culture of the Americas is unquestionable.”

• 🐉 H.F: “China was the center for trade back then. Jade, pottery, silk, etc. Would be fascinating to experience the gateway of the Silk Road.”

• 🗡️ J.L: “toga….toga….toga !! :)”