Plus: Bunker of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Myanmar’s rebels are winning the civil war |
2️⃣ South Korea taps its strategic cabbage reserve |
3️⃣ Bunker of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I got the worst food poisoning I think I’ve ever had while travelling through Myanmar back in 2014. It was when the country had just ‘opened up’ to tourists (mainly of the Lonely Planet-carrying, bandana-sporting, tie-dye harem-pants variety).
It struck when I was travelling through Bagan, a rugged UNESCO-heritage site that’s filled with over 10,000 Buddhist temples and pagodas, and had once been the capital of the Pagan Kingdom. Bagan also happened to be dead smack in the middle of the country, far away from any bodies of water.
So it seemed like a good idea to order some imported Norwegian salmon for dinner. Anyway, that did not end well for anyone involved. In spite of that episode, I was absolutely blown away by Myanmar and the optimism and dynamism felt around the country back then – a stark contrast to the current civil war.
Today, we’ll take a look at the latest intrigue in Myanmar involving a Kachin ethnic militia seizing the country’s rare-earth mining hub.
Turkey targets PKK after deadly attack in Ankara.
Turkey has hit sites across Iraq and Syria linked to the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), a listed terrorist group that says it’s fighting for Kurdish autonomy. The airstrikes came after Turkey blamed the PKK for an armed attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), which makes drones for the Turkish air force among other things. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the TAI attack near Ankara, which left five dead and dozens wounded.
Xi and Modi meet for first time in five years.
The two neighbours have finally met again on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, just days after their capitals announced a deal on patrolling their disputed border. It’s raising hopes for a thaw between the two giants, though their longer-term rivalry seems destined to persist.
Boeing workers reject 35% pay rise deal.
The main union at Boeing says 64% of its striking members have voted against a proposal that contained a 35% pay raise over four years. It’s a let-down for the company, which announced quarterly losses of almost $6B the very same day (Wednesday).
Indonesia twice ‘expels’ Chinese coastguard vessel.
Indonesia’s maritime safety agency says it’s “expelled” a Chinese coastguard vessel from its waters for the second time in a week, accusing the ship of disrupting the survey activities of an Indonesian state-owned oil and gas company. The incident appears to have occurred in an area China claims via its vast ‘nine-dash line’, which has already been rejected by an international tribunal.
Canadian PM facing party pressure to resign.
At a closed-door meeting, members of his Liberal Party have reportedly pressured Justin Trudeau to resign ahead of next year’s general election. After nine years in office, polls suggest Trudeau has lost favour with the Canadian electorate, including over issues like the cost of living.
TOP STORY
Myanmar’s rebel groups are winning the civil war
That old iPhone in your hand and the Peugeot you forgot to fill with gas might just tie you to one of the most resource-rich areas in the world: Kachin, in northeastern Myanmar.
And that might be why, when word emerged that the rebel Kachin Independence Army just seized control of the country’s rare-earth mining hub of Pangwa, the world suddenly remembered there’s a civil war happening in Myanmar.
Here’s a quick recap of how we got here —
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Myanmar’s military ruled the country for decades before allowing a tentative democratic transition from 2011
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Voters went on to elect Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy in back-to-back landslides
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But for the military, her 2020 win was the last straw – it claimed fraud then staged a coup in 2021, famously caught on video behind a Zumba class.
Locals weren’t happy, and pro-democracy protestors soon flooded the streets until the military brutally cracked down and declared a state of emergency, promising elections in a year. Those elections never came.
And as the junta stifled the protests, dozens of the country’s ethnic groups took up arms.
Arguably the junta’s biggest headache has been the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Formed back in the 1960s, the KIA has long advocated for an autonomous state for the Kachin people, with a capital (Laiza) right on the China-Myanmar border. The Myanmar military fought skirmishes with the group over the decades, but signed a ceasefire in 1994.
There were still occasional flare-ups, but the 2021 military coup really upended the chess board. As the country spiralled into civil war, the KIA eventually joined the absolute alphabet soup of Myanmar’s other militias seeking to end military rule.
But throughout it all, the KIA has really had its eye on Kachin’s resource rich areas, seizing oil fields, gold mines, amber hubs, and now rare-earth mines. Why? Neighbouring China buys this stuff from Kachin, and controlling the supply holds the promise of both leverage and legitimacy for Kachin groups, while cutting off revenue for the heavily-sanctioned junta.
And that’s all happening against the backdrop of two broader trends:
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Nationally, Myanmar’s military has now lost control of around half the country, which explains why it’s suddenly become eager for peace talks, and
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Internationally, it all comes just as the world needs more of Kachin’s critical minerals, which play a key role in sectors like tech, EVs, and defence.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So what happens now? A lot depends on China. It has vast interests across Myanmar: hydro plants, oil and gas, plantations, and yes, its firms also run most of Myanmar’s rare-earth mines. To boot, you could trace part of this civil war back to an earlier Myanmar regime’s decision to sign a border treaty that ceded Kachin territory to China.
That level of history and influence has led to significant anti-China sentiment in Myanmar — someone fire-bombed one of China’s local consulates just last week.
It also partly explains China’s response to date: Beijing wants its above interests protected, and its border stabilised. So it’s brokered short-lived ceasefires, extracted militia pledges, and just hosted KIA’s political wing for talks, before closing border gates with Kachin on Saturday when those talks didn’t pan out as hoped.
But that’s all led to frustration among Myanmar’s generals who, on the back foot, are now openly calling for China’s help. And interestingly, some of the help China is offering publicly includes to “restart the process of democratic transformation” — not typically a Beijing forte, but it’s partly a move to box out China’s democratic rivals.
Either way, for China, there are no easy options here. And while it figures out its next move, keep an eye on the prices of locally-sourced metals like dysprosium and terbium.
Also worth noting:
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China’s customs authority reported ~$1.4B in rare-earth imports from Myanmar last year. Probably around $400M of that hailed from around Pangwa.
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Aung San Suu Kyi has been detained since the 2021 coup.
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US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says Washington is floating the idea of a critical minerals marketplace to decrease allied dependence on China.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Seoul has assured its citizens it’ll tap its national cabbage stockpiles to provide 24,000 tonnes of cabbage, after unusually hot weather hit harvests ahead of peak kimchi-making season. Kimchi, a traditional dish made with fermented vegetables, is a staple in South Korea.
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🇺🇦 Ukraine: The country’s highly-regarded prosecutor-general has announced his resignation to take responsibility for a draft-dodging scheme involving dozens of Ukrainian prosecutors. The scheme revolved around issuing fraudulent disability certificates, which can carry pensions plus exemptions from military conscription.
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🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Tensions are brewing after an influential student group called for the resignation of the country’s figurehead president over his comments that seemingly cast doubt over PM Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in August. Hasina was ousted this summer after widespread protests forced her to flee to India.
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🇵🇪 Peru: The priest who founded liberation theology has passed away in his hometown of Lima, aged 96. The movement ended up motivating some clergy to join armed insurgencies in Latin America, drawing criticism from the Vatican, though Pope Francis later thanked him for his service to the poor.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: According to Reuters, the ‘RSF’ paramilitary says it’s downed a plane supplying arms to the military in Darfur — interestingly, the aircraft appears to have had a Russian crew. Various world powers have been accused of intervening in the ongoing war in Sudan, including Russia, Egypt, and the UAE.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
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Sports: LeBron James and his son Bronny have become the first father-son duo to share a basketball court in an NBA game.
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Science: Researchers are questioning the effectiveness of the latest wellness trend — vitamin patches.
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Social: TikTok has announced it’s expanding its STEM feed to all adults in the US, the UK, and Ireland (it previously limited educational content to users under 18).
BUNKER OF THE DAY
The only visible part of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault is its entrance. Credits: NordGen.
In case of an apocalypse, money will mean nothing, but we’ll be scrambling for seeds. At least, that’s the thinking behind Norway’s Svalbard Global Seed Vault, a backup bank for seeds, which just got a deposit of 30,000 new samples from 21 different countries.
Beyond looking like the perfect hideaway for a Bond villain, the vault (on an island in the Arctic) houses over 1.3 million seed samples from around the world as a sort of insurance policy against catastrophe, be it nuclear war, climate change, or a pandemic. It’s also played a role during the Syrian war, helping secure the country’s seed collection.
DAILY POLL
UN chief Antonio Guterres has come under fire for attending this week's BRICS summit in Russia. Do you think the criticism is warranted? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is the biggest challenge to the world economy?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚢 Looming trade wars (13%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚡ Geopolitical tensions (37%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚖️ Inequality (7%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 💸 Unsustainable debt (25%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌊 Climate change (16%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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⚡ R: “All of these are serious challenges, but geopolitical tensions could cause more serious harm and in a shorter period of time.”
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🌊 R.W: “Of all these challenges, climate change seems to be the one that there is the least political will to change.”
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⚖️ 4R: “Inequality underlies everything else.”
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✍️ A.D: “The big challenge is the interplay between all these factors. Will climate change lay bare the massive inequality? Will trade wars expand festering geopolitical tensions? Stay tuned…”
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