Plus: Kiribati's twitter lols
Hi Intriguer. There’s a volcano on North Korea’s border with China called Mount Paektu that’s said to be the mythical birthplace of all Korean people. I hiked up the Chinese side of the mountain in 2016, and honestly, the caldera is so awe-inspiring you can almost believe it.
It’s also said to be the birthplace of former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. It isn’t – he was most likely born in Khabarovsk in Russia’s Far East – but it simply doesn’t do for a supreme leader to have not been born in the country he leads.
That the North Korean regime has a history of concealing the truth will come as a surprise to no one, but in today’s top story, we dive into a far more concerning possible cover-up: whether current leader Kim Jong Un is now preparing his country for war.
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Israeli cabinet member sees “progress” on hostage deal. War Cabinet member Benny Gantz has said he sees some “promising early signs of progress” on a ceasefire/hostage release deal. If no agreement is reached, he says Israel should continue fighting throughout the month of Ramadan. Meanwhile, the World Food Programme has announced it’s pausing aid deliveries to northern Gaza due to “the collapse of civil order” amid an “immense humanitarian need”.
Japanese stock market index reaches all-time high. Japan’s main stock market index, the Nikkei 225, has blown past its 1989 record, closing at 39,098 points. Japan’s stock market has had a strong start to the year thanks to booming semiconductor-related stocks.
Nvidia makes bank. Talking about all-time highs, US chipmaker Nvidia says its revenue tripled to $22.1B last quarter (from a year earlier), while its profit jumped nearly nine-fold to $12.3B. Its stunning growth has been powered by demand for AI. Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang told journalists, “my guess is we are literally into the first year of a 10-year cycle of spreading this technology [AI] into every single industry.”
Twitter/X suspends accounts amid India farmer protests. The social media platform says it’s complied with an order from the Indian government to suspend accounts and posts, reportedly in connection to ongoing farmer protests. However, the platform has also criticised India’s order, stating “we disagree with these actions and maintain that freedom of expression should extend to these posts.”
EU agrees to latest round of Russia sanctions. The 13th package of sanctions will leave the assets of another 200 people and several Russian entities subject to freezing.
TOP STORY
Is something brewing in North Korea?
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin gifted a full-sized luxury limousine to his North Korean bff and neighbour, Kim Jong Un. Kim’s sister described it as a sign of the “special personal relations” between the two leaders.
While we’d be delighted to dedicate an entire article to the intriguing gifts exchanged among world leaders (check out this old post of ours on the matter), that’s not why we’re bringing up Kim’s new ride.
As mentioned in yesterday’s briefing, North Korea-watchers have noted some odd changes in behaviour by the nuclear-armed hermit state, and it’s causing jitters in neighbouring South Korea, Japan, the US, and beyond.
Here are a few recent examples of Kim’s eyebrow-raising moves:
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In November, he launched his first spy satellite, triggering a tit-for-tat that culminated in him abandoning a key border pact with the South
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In December, he test-launched his most advanced long-range missile, in breach of UN sanctions
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In early January, his generals fired artillery near the South Korean islands of Yeonpyeong, Baengnyeong and Daecheong
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Days later, he abandoned the official narrative of peaceful Korean reunification enshrined by his grandfather, and tore down the reunification monument erected by his father
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He backed that up by testing a new underwater nuclear drone, in response to joint South Korea-Japan-US military drills
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And this was all accompanied by a steady drumbeat of more belligerent state media coverage
Zooming out a little further, it also comes against the backdrop of the North’s deepening military ties with Russia, a resumption of trade with China, and an apparent evaporation in sanctions enforcement from both Beijing and Moscow.
What’s going on? Smart folks are currently reaching very different conclusions:
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It could all just be bluster with no fundamental change in posture according to Jung Pak, the US State Department's senior official in charge of North Korea affairs
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Or maybe Kim has “made a strategic decision to go to war”, according to two respected North Korea scholars (Carlin and Hecker)
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Alternatively, according to Germany’s former ambassador to North Korea, Kim could just be ramping up tensions during this US and South Korean election year (the South’s parliamentary elections are in April), something it’s done before to build leverage and extract sanctions relief
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Or perhaps Kim wants to destabilise, distract, or dilute Western power to help partners like Russia elsewhere, without tipping into war himself
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Or maybe he’s just firing up tensions as a way to distract his own people and justify his increased military spending, which comes at the cost of widespread hunger and malnutrition among his 26 million people
Whatever Kim’s objective, he’s got the world’s attention again. And maybe that was his objective all along.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
All the above theories are plausible to us, but it’s worth recalling three things.
First, a decision to go to war would ordinarily be accompanied by other signs, like a further military build-up along the border, or stockpiling arms (rather than sending them to Russia). We haven’t seen evidence of those two signs yet.
Second, it’s important to remember that the two neighbours have come to blows in recent times (eg. in 2010), and Kim has issued threats of “holy war” before. So there’s a degree of repetition here.
And third, the North is odd – heck, it even claims Kim’s father invented the hamburger. But odd doesn’t mean irrational. From Kim’s perspective, he’s wedged between an unfriendly US-backed neighbour (South Korea), a prickly if indifferent associate (China), and one who’s suddenly sympathetic (Russia).
So from Kim’s perspective, it makes sense to cosy up to Russia and engage in some seasonal provocation. It makes less sense to start a full-scale war that would risk his – and his regime’s – survival. Less sense, but not unthinkable.
Also worth noting:
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Kim Jong Un visited Russian President Vladimir Putin last year, and pledged “full and unconditional support” to Moscow in “its fight to protect its sovereignty and security”.
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South Korea’s president (Yoon) said last month, “should North Korea provoke us, we will punish them multiple times as hard”.
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The North and South are still technically in a state of war, having never signed a peace treaty after the Korean War.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: At least 16 Chinese companies have set up their own volunteer fighting cadres over the past year, according to CNN. These groups, known as the People’s Armed Forces Departments, are trained to intervene in case of national disaster or civil unrest.
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🇪🇺 EU: A recent survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations says only 10% of Europeans expect a Ukrainian win, and 20% expect a Russian win. Most say the war will end in a settlement. The same survey says 14% of Europeans would be pleased by a second Trump presidency.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a club of rich nations, announced on Tuesday it’s officially opening accession talks with Indonesia. Once approved, Indonesia will become the group’s first Southeast Asian member.
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🇨🇱 Chile: An appeals court in Chile has ruled that the investigation into the 1973 death of Nobel laureate writer Pablo Neruda be reopened – the latest turn in one of Chile’s great mysteries. Neruda, an avowed socialist, died shortly after the Chilean military coup, ostensibly due to cancer though there have also been claims he was poisoned.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: Turkish authorities have arrested six people for allegedly spying on members of the local Uyghur community on behalf of China. Turkey has periodically objected to China’s treatment of the Uyghur minority, leading to ruptures in relations over the years.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here are yesterday’s best-performing stocks from around the world
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Monte dei Paschi di Siena, an Italian bank, was the star on 🇮🇹 Milan’s stock exchange following reports the government is considering selling some of its shares.
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Dana Gas, an Emirati natural gas company, enjoyed a big day on the 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi securities exchange, though its share price is still down following a mixed earnings report earlier this month.
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And TG Metals, a small miner focused on lithium, nickel and gold, had the biggest jump on the 🇦🇺 Australian Securities Exchange as it continues drill testing at a site in southwestern Australia.
TWEET/X OF THE DAY
The tiny Pacific Island nation of Kiribati (pronounced ‘kiribas’) has emerged as a social media superpower this week after responding with some serious sass to tweets gently teasing the country’s place names (London, Paris, Poland and… Banana). A simple “fine, you’re not invited” was all it took to put Kiribati (pop. 130,000) on the map for 28 million folks around the world who saw the tweet.
Plot twist – journalists in New Zealand reached out to the i-Kiribati government for comment, and a presidential advisor said “it’s a fake account”. 💔
DAILY POLL
What do you think Kim is up to in North Korea? |
Curious about who’s who at the UN in New York? With thanks to some very ‘in-the-know’ Intriguers who prefer to remain anonymous, we’ll be spilling the tea tomorrow (Friday). To get the inside word, all you need to do is refer at least one friend to Intrigue this week!
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Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Messi's decision not to play in Hong Kong was politically motivated?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚽ Yes, he returned to action too quickly for it to be an injury (19%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚑 No, players get injured and skip games all the time (76%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
Your two cents:
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⚽ A.A: “Athletes have always been useful props and are clearly motivated by money. The same rule applies here.”
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✍️ A.M: “People seem to forget the age factor of Messi. While political scenarios may be influential, I believe it is important not to forget that since his departure from Barcelona he´s had recurrent days off due to physical discomforts.”