Plus: More intrigue at COP28
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Hi Intriguer. In 1935, Reginald Mungomery brought a box of cane toads from Hawaii back to his home in Australia, hoping the toads would eat the beetles destroying local cane fields. Instead, the toads reproduced and Australia is now stuck with 200 million of them.
It’s an example of when folks have tried to solve one problem, only to end up causing another. And I mention this phenomenon because it’s feeling more common in geopolitics these days, as governments find that every decision seems to come with a bewildering new array of possible costs.
You’ll see below how this might be playing out in Norway, where authorities are pursuing deep-sea mining (in waters that look contested).
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
Israel offensive enters “third phase”. The Israeli Defence Forces have said that yesterday (Tuesday) was the “most intense day” of their ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to fight “until a crushing victory”. A senior UN official has warned that “an even more hellish scenario is about to unfold” for civilians in the strip.
Zelensky cancels US address. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called off virtual appearances with US lawmakers amid an ongoing funding row in Congress over the future of US aid to Ukraine. A vote on the $110.5B emergency spending bill package is scheduled for later today.
Visa bans in the West Bank. US Secretary of State Blinken has announced visa bans on “individuals believed to have been involved in undermining peace, security, or stability in the West Bank”, with references both to “Palestinian attacks against Israelis”, and “extremist settlers who have committed violent attacks against Palestinians“. It’s being seen as a rare US punitive move against Israel.
Drone accident kills at least 85. Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has called for an investigation into an army drone strike against a Muslim congregation in the country’s northwest. Nigeria’s army, which is battling armed gangs in the area, said it had “wrongly analyzed and misinterpreted” the situation.
Tech rain check. Tech manufacturing companies Foxconn and Pegatron have halted the production of iPhones at their Chennai factories due to heavy rains. The Foxconn factory alone employs 35,000 people.
TOP STORY
(L-R) Representatives of Norway’s Progress, Center, Labour, and Conservative parties announcing their deal on seabed mining yesterday (Tuesday)
Norway moves to authorise deep-sea mining in disputed waters
The Norwegian government says (🇳🇴) it’s secured a parliamentary majority to greenlight its deep-sea mining plans, bringing it a step closer to becoming the world’s first country to extract metals from the sea floor on a commercial scale.
Supporters say deep-sea mining:
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Is key to supplying the metals for our energy transition
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Can help diversify Norway’s economy away from oil and gas, and
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Can help reduce the world’s over-reliance on China’s metals sector.
But Norway’s opponents include not only environmental and fishing groups, but possibly also neighbours like Russia, the UK, and the EU. Why?
Norway has cordoned off an Ecuador-sized area for mining exploration near its islands in the Arctic. But these islands are subject to an unusual treaty between ~46 countries; and some (like Russia) say it limits Norway’s rights in the area.
But to be honest, it’s hard to find areas where deep-sea mining isn’t contested:
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In international waters, mining is regulated by a Jamaica-based body that’s still debating the issue
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So that leaves countries like Norway to push ahead within their own waters and extended continental shelves
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This has also meant (for example) China sending deep-sea survey vessels into waters claimed by others like the Philippines, and
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It’s also become a divisive issue in regions like the Pacific Islands, where some (like Nauru) see mining as a way to generate jobs, while others (like Tuvalu) see it as too damaging for the ocean.
So in that context, there are calls to just hit pause.
Multinationals like Google, BMW and Samsung vowed earlier this year not to use deep-sea metals. And just in October, the UK became the latest to join over 20 others calling for a moratorium until the environmental impacts are clearer.
But the news out of Norway this week suggests it’s confident it can replicate the success of its vast offshore oil and gas sector, and balance the interests at play.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Of course, while this is all playing out in Norway, the world is gathered in Dubai for the year’s COP climate talks.
And different folks there will see Norway’s move in very different lights:
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Some will say the sheer scale of the energy transition ahead means we need to mine more key metals, wherever possible, and as quickly as possible.
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Others will say that averting ecological disaster means preserving the carbon cycle, and that means leaving oceans alone (they store 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere).
As for Norway, it’s basically saying its technological and regulatory prowess means it can achieve #1 above, without compromising #2.
Also worth noting:
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Deep-sea mining tech is still being tested, but essentially involves hoovering potato-sized nodules of metal from the seabed up to a ship on the surface.
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In June, the UN approved a legally binding treaty to preserve marine biodiversity in the high seas beyond national borders.
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🌱 COP28 CORNER
The world’s first ‘Global Stocktake’ is due at this year’s COP summit.
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It’s intended as a report card on efforts to limit any global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Nobody expects any big surprises (we’re off track), but the idea is to help shape what exactly the world should do next in response.
The world’s carbon credit players want to lift standards.
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Carbon credits have plenty of critics these days, citing instances of fraud or big polluters using them to carry on as usual. That’s partly why credit prices have dropped 80% in the last 20 months. The sector hopes tighter standards can save the day.
Helen’s dispatch
Rumour has it the front-runner for next year’s COP host is Serbia. Under the COP rules, it’s Eastern Europe’s turn, and apparently Serbia is the only country that both Russia and the EU can accept.
But here’s the thing: negotiators are telling me they’re overwhelmed with the sheer scale and complexity of work at this year’s COP. They’re talking about both the substance (450 items still under negotiation) and the logistics (a record 100,000 registered attendees!).
As a wealthy petrostate, the UAE has been able to throw a staggering amount of cash and resources at this challenge. And I’m not the only one here wondering how Serbia and other smaller players can follow suit.
Protests are a rare sight in the UAE, but I’ve seen several this week.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: A new report by Korea’s central bank suggests the economy will start shrinking in 2050 if South Korea’s birth-rate (the world’s lowest) doesn’t rise. Concerns around jobs and housing are major hurdles for prospective parents.
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🇪🇺 EU: European Council President Charles Michel will reportedly cut his China visit short in order to address Hungary’s growing opposition to EU accession talks with Ukraine. He’s in Beijing for the first in-person EU-China summit since 2019, but the lack of a secure EU phone line in Beijing means he can’t speak with EU leaders without China listening in.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: The ‘Islamic State’ group has claimed responsibility for a Church attack that killed four people in the Philippines over the weekend. The blast occurred in the southern island of Mindanao, which has struggled with armed conflict for decades.
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🇳🇮 Nicaragua: Authorities are reportedly clamping down on celebrations following Nicaragua’s Miss Universe win. The winner, Sheynnis Palacios, has become a symbol of resistance against the Ortega regime due to her participation in mass protests in 2018.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: Turkish intelligence officers have reportedly warned their Israeli counterparts not to assassinate Hamas leaders on Turkish soil. This comes after reports emerged that Israel is planning to target Hamas leaders across Turkey, Qatar, and Lebanon.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
What we’re reading about the aviation industry
QUOTE OF THE DAY
US Attorney-General Merrick Garland has unsealed charges against Manuel Rocha, a former US ambassador to Bolivia, for allegedly spying on behalf of Cuba for more than four decades. According to the indictment, Rocha repeatedly described the US as “the enemy” during conversations with an undercover FBI agent, and bragged that his actions had “strengthened the revolution”.
DAILY POLL
Should we mine the ocean floor for minerals? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think the Russo-Ukraine war is headed?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🧊 It's now a frozen conflict, and the frontlines won't shift much (53%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Russia and Ukraine will negotiate a political settlement (16%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇷🇺 Russia's wartime costs are unsustainable, it'll change course (12%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇦 Ukraine's wartime costs are unsustainable, it'll change course (17%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🧊 A.W: “Sad to say it is a hot war frozen by both the weather and the tactical stalemate. Russia appears better equipped to wait it out, with all the suffering and needless loss of life that implies.”
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🇺🇦 G.P: “Ukraine doesn’t have a sustainable predictable source of support.”
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✍️ C.O: “All of these… The lines will not shift significantly, so both sides will alter their course seeking any advantage, but ultimately since no other nations want to risk a broader conflict, it all ends by accepting an unacceptable political settlement.”