Plus: Suit suppression in Kenya?
Hi Intriguer. Henry Kissinger died at his home in Connecticut yesterday, aged 100. One of his quotes feels particularly apt right now: “the Cold War was more dangerous… but today is more complex”.
I’m back on a plane today, this time en-route to an intimate gathering in the UAE called COP28, along with ~70,000 other climate-negotiators / activists / watchers / hangers-on.
It’s a big year for COP. There’ll be a stocktake on the health of the world’s climate pledges, talks to triple the world’s renewable targets by 2030, and promises to reduce methane emissions. Plus there’s also the question of how the US and China manage calls to phase out fossil fuels.
Stay tuned, dear Intriguers – we’ll be bringing you COP content from the sandpit in the coming days, along with all the tea.
And on that note, today’s briefing is actually on how a court decision in Panama might end up impacting the world’s energy transition.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
Kissinger dies aged 100. Former US Secretary of State and Nobel Peace Prize winner Henry Kissinger will be remembered for establishing relations with China, coordinating America’s withdrawal from Vietnam, and managing Cold War tensions at their height. But he also leaves behind a controversial legacy, as some of his strategies cost many lives and compromised core democratic ideals.
New details emerge. US federal prosecutors have accused an Indian official of plotting to kill a dual US-Canadian citizen on US soil, according to new details in an indictment unsealed yesterday. As evidence mounts, Delhi’s denials will strain credulity, but US-India ties look pretty solid given their shared interests on China.
One more day. Hamas and Israel have extended their truce for one additional day, minutes after it was due to expire overnight. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who’s in Israel, says the truce “is producing results. It's important, and we hope that it can continue.” Hours later in Jerusalem, two brothers with alleged links to Hamas opened fire at a crowded bus stop, killing at least three people.
Canada and Google do a deal. Google has agreed to make annual payments of ~$74 million to a Canadian media fund just before the country’s Online News Act comes into effect. The idea is for Google to compensate Canadian news outlets for using their stories online. The new law will also cover Meta (Facebook/Instagram), which hasn’t yet resumed talks with the government.
Musk drops the f-bomb. X/Twitter owner Elon Musk has said advertisers leaving the platform in protest are trying to “blackmail [him] with money”. He then struck a more conciliatory tone, telling them, “go f—- yourself.”
TOP STORY
Court forces Panama to shut a key copper mine
Panama’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously (🇵🇦) on Tuesday that the law behind the country’s vast Cobre Panama copper mine was “unconstitutional”.
The court said the contract between Panama’s government and the Canadian-owned mine violated protected rights (like the right to a healthy environment). So in response, President Laurentino Cortizo is now closing the mine.
But Cobre Panama, which began production in 2019, is no ordinary mine. It:
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Cost $7B to build and now produces >1% of the world’s copper
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Accounts for 5% of Panama’s GDP and 75% of its goods exports, and
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Employs around 8,000 workers (plus another ~30,000 contractors).
So what went wrong?
Cobre Panama’s scale (34,000 acres) and location (in lush Caribbean jungle) angered environmentalists and traditional landowners from the very beginning.
And the company’s negotiations with workers (on wages) and the government (on royalties) really dragged on until Panama approved the contract last month.
But then protests broke out and soon snowballed to include unions, and then a broader cross-section of folks angry at Panama’s overall direction.
If we had to sum it up (and at this point, we really do), it became an outpouring of built-up frustration that Panama just wasn’t being run for Panamanians.
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Protestors stormed the mine’s port and blocked key highways
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Near-daily mass demonstrations cost the country billions, and
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Violent incidents cost protestors’ lives and injured several miners.
But while many celebrated Tuesday’s court decision, this isn’t over yet:
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There are now counter protests by mine employees, suppliers and unions
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Barclays has downgraded Panama’s bonds
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Copper futures have spiked
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The mine’s Canadian shares have tumbled, and
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Its owners are now weighing how best to recoup their ~$10B investment.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Panama’s history has long been shaped by foreign actors. In fact, Panama declared independence from Colombia in 1903 after the US backed local secessionists to pave the way for construction of the Panama Canal.
So it’s no wonder news of foreign firms extracting the country’s resources is a touchy subject for many folks in Panama.
Still, this story strikes at the heart of three major tensions:
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The tension between preserving local ecosystems, while still extracting resources the world needs for the energy transition
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The tension between maintaining control over resources, while still creating the conditions to attract essential foreign investment, and
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The tension between governing for the people, while somehow still financing (without mining royalties) the services people want.
The right balance looks different in each country. And in Panama, it now looks very different compared to a week ago.
Also worth noting:
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International investors have also been spooked by a two-day strike at a Chinese-owned copper mine in Peru this week.
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Some analysts were forecasting a copper surplus in 2024, possibly cushioning this week’s news out of Panama. But realistically, the world’s longer-term energy transition needs more copper, not less.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: Pyongyang is claiming that ~99.9% of voters backed its candidates in local and regional elections on Saturday, but it’s made a rare public reference to that dissenting 0.10%. It’s more an attempt to make the process look authentic, rather than a real sign of dissent.
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🇧🇪 Belgium: Moroccan authorities have arrested a man suspected of emailing 15 bomb threats to schools in Belgium over the weekend. While the schools remained closed at first, authorities now say that “initial findings show that the suspect does not have a terrorist motive”.
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🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: Colombo has struck an interim deal with its creditors, a key prerequisite to keep its IMF bailout on track. Sri Lanka’s dollar bonds have returned ~66% this year to become a top performer, as progress on debt restructuring spurs optimism over its fiscal recovery.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: President-elect Javier Milei met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top IMF officials in Washington this week. He’s seeking to drum up support for his plans to fix Argentina’s ailing economy before he’s sworn in as president on 10 December.
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🇳🇪 Niger: The military junta has repealed a law that criminalised the transport of undocumented migrants from Niger to Libya and Algeria, effectively ending Niger’s migration partnership with the EU. The junta also announced that all previous convictions under the 2015 law would be expunged.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what the world googled yesterday (Wednesday)
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🇨🇴 Colombians looked for info on the government’s “Reforma a la salud” (Healthcare reform) now being debated (🇨🇴) in their congress.
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🇪🇬 Folks in Egypt searched for ‘مخيم جنين’ (Jenin camp) after an Israeli military incursion in the West Bank city left four dead, including two minors.
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🇵🇭 And netizens in the Philippines googled ‘Spotify Wrapped 2023’ to find out their top streaming moments of the year.
🧍 OUTFIT OF THE DAY
Credits: Nairobi News.
Kenya’s parliament has just banned Kaunda suits from its premises. Named after Zambia’s late president (Kenneth Kaunda), they’re a safari-style suit often rocked by Kenyan President William Ruto. But the Assembly Speaker says these and other emerging trends risk upending the country’s parliamentary dress code.
We don’t want to trigger an incident here, but… they look pretty sharp to us?
DAILY POLL
If mining companies found a huge copper reserve close to your home, what would you do? |
Yesterday’s poll: Which do you think is the most important asset for a navy?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🛬 Aircraft carriers (31%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚢 Cruisers / battleships (11%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐟 Submarines (39%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💣 Minehunters (2%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🏝️ Amphibious ships (1%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🦾 Underwater drones (9%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
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🚢 T.J.W: “Cruisers and battleships provide the hard hitting punch a navy needs, as well as protection for the carriers. With the technology now, they are excellent fast strike defensive weapons, as well as carrying massive offensive capabilities.”
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🐟 K.P.M: “Stealth and the ability to deliver both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons is paramount.”
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✍️ L.S: “Personnel.”
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✍️ J.T: “Refuelling capability. The U.S. is able to project naval power because of forward refuelling points and their refuelling ships, which allow for replenishment at sea. Removing the need and vulnerability of pulling into port. You can have the biggest navy in the world but if the logistics system is weak it won't matter.”