Plus: Rerouting internet traffic away from the Red Sea
Hi Intriguer. Well I’ll be darned if this world of ours isn’t a surprising place at times.
You might recall a couple weeks back, I mentioned a French ex-spy who popped up down-under using the name ‘Jack Beaumont’ to publish a gripping and eerily plausible spy thriller, The Frenchman.
To my surprise, ‘Jack’ himself then made contact after my shout-out, and kindly agreed to answer questions about life in the shadows. I spoke with him last week, and we’ll share his intriguing answers in the coming days.
To say thanks for helping us grow, we’ll make Jack’s interview available to anyone who’s referred Intrigue to two or more friends (using your unique referral link down below). If that’s not you, there’s still time to get referring!
But for now, let’s get into today’s briefing, which leads with Vladimir Putin claiming an electoral victory in Russia over the weekend.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
PS – Many folks reached out after our briefing on TikTok last week, seeking a copy of John Garnaut’s insightful speech on China. So, here it is!
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Israel raids al-Shifa Hospital. Israeli forces have raided Gaza’s biggest hospital for a second time, saying the “precise” operation was targeting Hamas members regrouping there. Gaza’s health authorities accused Israel of “targeting anyone approaching the windows” of the complex, where thousands of Palestinians have taken refuge.
EU and Egypt sign $8B package. EU leaders signed a major aid package with Egypt yesterday (Sunday), promising more than $8B in aid over three years. The deal is aimed at boosting Egypt’s economy and curbing irregular migration to Europe. Brussels is reportedly discussing a similar deal with Morocco.
Niger severs security ties with US. Niger’s ruling military junta, which took power in a coup last year, has cancelled an agreement that allowed US security personnel on its soil. The junta stopped short of asking US troops to leave, though said their presence violates the country’s sovereignty. As of 2023, there were over 1,000 US troops in Niger employed in the fight against several jihadist groups in the region.
More Boeing woes. A Boeing plane operated by United landed without a panel on Friday, the latest in a series of incidents plaguing the US company.
Iceland declares state of emergency. Authorities have declared a state of emergency in southern Iceland after another volcanic eruption near the mostly evacuated town of Grindavik. It’s the fourth eruption since December.
TOP STORY
Putin seizes a 5th consecutive term in office
Canva AI prompt: authoritarian voting
Just after 9pm last night (Sunday local time), Russia's electoral authorities announced Russian President Vladimir Putin had been re-elected with ~88% of the vote, seizing his 5th consecutive term as Russia's leader since 1999.
Assuming Putin (71) completes this next six-year term, he'll eclipse Joseph Stalin's 29 years to become Russia's longest-serving leader in centuries (Nicholas I held power for 30 years from 1825).
So, what does all this mean? Putin, his supporters, and state-run media are declaring it a landslide display of national unity during wartime.
Elsewhere, it’s still seen as a sham due to various factors:
Candidates
Any remotely plausible opposition is now either disqualified (Boris Nadezhdin), exiled (Mikhail Kasyanov), jailed (Ilya Yashin), or dead (Alexei Navalny).
That’s left Putin running against three candidates who were either unheard of, or unelectable (the Communist Party candidate came a distant second with ~4%).
Campaigns
The three candidates who were allowed to run against Putin… didn't really run, offering no direct criticism of the man who's been running Russia since 1999.
Meanwhile, leaked Kremlin documents obtained by Estonian outlet Delfi showed plans for a vast, $1B pro-Putin propaganda effort to boost his turnout.
Coverage
The result was a dull race, which might’ve been the point. Golos, the NGO that's highly regarded in the West (and listed as a foreign agent in Russia), claims (🇷🇺) the limited state media coverage sought to ensure “citizens didn’t even know the elections were on”. And independent media has now mostly been muted.
Co-opting
Against that high-propaganda and low-interest backdrop, there were reports of state workers and others being bused into voting booths on Friday (which became a presidential election voting day for the first time this year).
Russia also ran ballots in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, where armed troops reportedly escorted electoral workers door-to-door to collect resident ballots.
So… beyond the obvious (hold onto power), what's the point of all this?
Maintaining an electoral fig leaf offers a pressure valve for discontent and a way to blunt criticism from abroad, while still curating the end result.
At the same time, a 'landslide' allows Putin to send signals to allies and adversaries, both at home and abroad. At home, it aims to assure his elite backers (and discourage his critics) that Putin isn’t going anywhere. Abroad, the aim is to project unity and resolve against Ukraine and its Western partners, while stiffening the necks of new friends in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran.
But of course, there were other interesting signals this weekend, too.
First, there were multiple reported instances of arson and vandalism at booths, including by elderly women, and in crucial cities like Moscow and St Petersburg.
And second, there was the 'noon against Putin' protest endorsed by Navalny shortly before his death – ie, encouraging folks to show their discontent by arriving at booths en masse at the same time (noon Sunday). On the day, there were indeed long queues at noon, despite earlier attempts at confusion, distraction, and intimidation.
So the net result of all this? Putin's control still looks firm, though not as firm as he would like.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There's an old Soviet-era joke about life as a worker back then: "we pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us".
In an election where nobody is allowed to meaningfully challenge Putin, maybe we could update the joke: "we pretend to cast votes, and they pretend to count them".
We offer reasons for this kind of stage-management above, but there's a broader reason at play. Authoritarians claim very high levels of support for the same reason they deliver very long speeches: because they can.
Also worth noting:
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Polling is tricky in Russia, though data from the Moscow-based Levada Center suggests Putin’s approval rating (unopposed) is now at ~80%, higher than before his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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Boris Nadezhdin’s surprisingly anti-war candidacy generated some buzz before authorities disqualified him last month for alleged irregularities. He told media over the weekend he hadn't voted for Putin, and encouraged others to follow suit. Brave guy.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: Workers at some of Japan’s biggest companies are set to enjoy the biggest wage increase in three decades, according to the country’s largest federation of trade unions, Rengo. The move could persuade the Bank of Japan to end its negative interest rate policy.
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🇫🇷 France: President Emmanuel Macron is planning to ask Russia and Ukraine to observe a ceasefire during this summer’s Olympic games, which France will host. Russian (and Belarusian) athletes will be allowed to participate, though without a Russian flag or anthem.
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🇻🇳 Vietnam: Parliament is due to meet next week to discuss “personnel changes”, amid speculation President Vo Van Thuong might resign from the (mostly ceremonial) role for unknown reasons. The news comes after a visit by the Dutch royal family was postponed “due to domestic circumstances” in Vietnam.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: The Senate has rejected President Javier Milei’s deregulation ‘mega-decree’ in a setback for the leader’s promised economic reforms. The decree still has a chance in the lower house (a single chamber can still pass a law) though Milei’s party doesn’t hold a majority there either.
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🇸🇳 Senegal: Authorities have released top opposition leaders from prison after last week’s passage of an amnesty law to quell unrest from President Macky Sall’s last-minute decision to postpone elections. Their release comes days before the rescheduled vote on 24 March.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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An Australian farm has grown the biggest-ever blueberry, measuring a solid 4cm (1.6 inches).
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A tourist from China has been charged with faking his own kidnapping to escape his gambling debts in Singapore.
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A huge amount of toilet paper has fallen off a truck in California, causing the ‘clogging’ of a major highway there.
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Indonesia has opened an inquiry after two pilots were caught sleeping mid-flight.
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Scientists in Japan have discovered that caffeine could make fuel cells more efficient.
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And a thief has stolen 18,000 bobbleheads of Pittsburgh hockey legend Jaromir Jagr.
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: Financial Times.
Telecom companies have started rerouting their internet traffic away from the undersea cables in the Red Sea as a result of Houthi attacks in the area. Most of the damage has likely been caused by the anchor of the Rubymar, a cargo ship which sank earlier this month after being hit by Houthi missiles. The Red Sea cables handle up to 25% of traffic between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
DAILY POLL
What do you think Russia's election means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you support a TikTok ban in your country?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⛔ Yes, the risks clearly outweigh the benefits (46%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📣 No, freedom of speech must be protected (14%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ ✂️ Only if TikTok refuses to sever ties with China (36%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (36)
Your two cents:
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⛔ D.D: “Regardless of who owns it, I think TikTok's costs (and other apps that reduce our ability to focus, and read) far outweigh its benefits.”
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✂️ C.S: “If TikTok is already banned from government employees' phones, it means the gov't recognizes the app as a threat to their info. Why not treat citizens with the same care?”
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📣 O: “We believe in rules-based, market-driven economies. TikTok may not be a huge phenomena a few years from now (look at Facebook a decade after it peaked) but our reputation as an open, rules-based market-driven leader would be tarred. Other countries would look at us as just a rival to China but no different from them – either of whom can destabilize their key business entities or even their economies, based on political needs.”
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✍️ G.M: “If US lawmakers were truly concerned about consumers they'd enact laws that protect their data across all apps.”