Date of the day

1 August 

That’s when suspended US tariffs are set to resume unless trading partners do a deal.

The Russo-Ukraine War

It's been five weeks since President Trump gave Vladimir Putin a two-week deadline to get serious about peace, so let's take a quick look at Putin’s war, diplomacy, and economy.

1. Putin’s war

While Americans were celebrating the 4th of July, and barely hours after the US and Russian presidents spoke again (Trump said the call went nowhere), Putin hit Ukrainian cities with his biggest attack so far, featuring ~500 missiles and drones. And that was just days after setting a similarly grim record the week prior. Why?

Three years into Putin's full-scale invasion, he's still trying to erode Ukraine's will to defend itself, project a sense of futility to Ukraine's backers, and force some kind of settlement that ties Ukraine’s hands. Any ground gains now come at a staggering cost, so he's seeking to exploit Ukraine's air defence gaps instead.

Oh, and that timing (4th of July) isn’t incidental: it’s likely an attempt to assert Russian resolve, defy international pressure, and mock US power, hoping to seed more doubts around whether it's worth (or even possible) resisting. Which brings us to…

2. Putin’s diplomacy

As this all plays out, Putin is still pretty isolated: he should be crushing Caipirinhas at Rio’s BRICS summit right now, but he’s skipping it again because Brazil (an International Criminal Court member) would be obliged to arrest him over war crimes charges.

Now sure, he gets the odd visit from China's Xi or Iran's Pezeshkian or even Vietnam’s Lam, but the novelty arguably just highlights his isolation.

Ditto, Ukrainian intel claims tiny Laos might send sappers to help, but the numbers are so small, the intent seems more symbolic than practical: he’s not alone. But you might argue adding Laos to the mix (along with North Korea and Iran) sends rather the opposite signal.

Then there's…

3. Putin’s economy

After years of defying both sanctions and expectations, the wheels now seem to be wobbling. And don't take it from us. Take it from Putin's own top people:

• His economy minister (Reshetnikov) just told a business forum in St Petersburg, "we are on the brink of transitioning into recession"

• His star central banker (Nabiullina) told the same audience Russia's sources of recent growth (like countless unemployed men) have now been exhausted, and

• The head of his state-owned Sberbank (Gref) described it all as a perfect storm.

Interestingly, the impact is starting to reach beyond Bolshoy Street and out onto Main Street: car sales are down ~40% and farm machinery sales are down 33%, while inflation is still cooking at ~9% despite eye-watering 21% interest rates.

But as he ramps wartime spending up 20% while oil and gas revenues drop 12%, Putin has now burned through two-thirds of his (liquid) rainy day fund, potentially tapping it dry within a year unless oil prices improve or he cuts military spending.

But neither seem likely right now.

So while we don't know how all this plays out, it's worth keeping the above in mind as Putin tries to project strength via his airstrikes. Ukraine’s not the only one under pressure.

Intrigue’s Take

Relative democratic transparency means Western leaders are often more likely to say the quiet bits out-loud: Kentucky’s Senator McConnell, for example, often notes that US support for Ukraine’s self-defence replenishes America's stockpiles and weakens an adversary, while the opposite risks “an illusory peace that shreds America’s credibility, leaves Ukraine under threat, weakens our alliances, and emboldens our enemies.”

Outside the West, however, we’ve often had to infer how leaders might be viewing all this. So we were surprised to see reports that Beijing might now be saying these quiet bits out-loud too, with top envoy (Wang) apparently telling his European counterpart (Kallas) that China doesn't want Russia to lose in Ukraine, as that'd free the US up to focus on China.

Meanwhile, another message is getting louder, too: leaders have long warned that Europe and Asia’s security are linked, with history showing trouble in one quickly engulfs the other. Beijing nodded at that argument when rejecting a small NATO liaison office in Asia back in 2023. But with the region’s tiny Laos now potentially joining North Korea and China in answering Putin’s calls (while Japan, Korea, and Australia back Ukraine), this has already gone well beyond some NATO bureaucrat arriving in Tokyo with a photocopier.

Sound smarter:

• Authorities just blocked gold mining tycoon Konstantin Strukov from leaving Russia, and are now moving to nationalise his company. Some are interpreting the move as a cash grab from the Kremlin.

Intrigue presents:

As seen in The Economist and Stratechery…

Meet the physicist, engineer, and fellow Intriguer now making fuel out of thin air: it’s the legendary founder of Terraform Industries, Dr Casey Handmer.

Don’t miss our chat with Casey! It’s online, this Thursday at noon ET! Join here!

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

🤣 Your roundup of the world’s lighter news

• A UK seagull has snagged the coffee of a guy trying to install anti-bird spikes.

• Authorities in French-speaking Quebec have said it’s acceptable (though not preferable) to support your sports team with “go” rather than the French “allez.”

• Undergoing routine maintenance, a Maryland fire truck has… caught fire.

• A snake has delayed a flight in Australia after stowing away in the cargo hold.

• And a Florida super-fan has rebuilt the boat from Jaws to re-enact his favourite scenes.

Lego of the day

Danish brand Lego just opened its 11th — and biggest — resort over the weekend, unveiling China’s first-ever Legoland in Shanghai. Some quick numbers for you: it’s got 75 rides across eight ‘lands’ using 85 million Lego bricks, all on a plot of land roughly the size of the Vatican (or three times the size of the Pentagon).

If any Intriguers make it along, please answer us this: does the Lego movie’s classic ‘Everything is awesome’ song play on repeat? 🤞

Today’s poll

Last Thursday’s poll: Have you ever lived through a coup?

🪖 Yep, here's what happened… (14%)
🙅 Nope (say no more) (86%)

Your two cents:

• 🪖 P: “I was at Clark Air Base in the Philippines during the People Power Revolution in 1986. I came to work one morning and the entire Philippine Air Force was parked on our tarmac, so that Marcos couldn't order them to bomb their own people.”

• 🪖 R.O: “Not quite a coup, but I was in Thailand for the 2010 ‘Red Shirt’ protests which led to major clashes. I used to walk through the protests every day to get to my house, and before the violence was triggered, the protest camp was always a good place to find some delicious noodles.”

• 🪖 N: “I was in Fiji in 2006, when the coup was deferred to allow a Police v Army rugby match.”

• 🙅 F.F: “I wonder what percentage this poll will be in… say 10 years from now.”

Thank you to everyone who wrote in to share their experiences!