🌍 Slovakia dishes up another electoral surprise

Hi there Intriguer. Spare a thought for the Aasvik family in Norway, who were hoping for a nice little Saturday, maybe heading over to Bed Bath n Beyond if there was time. But no, instead they went global after unearthing 8th century Viking relics in their lawn.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇸🇰 What just happened with Slovakia’s elections?

• 🇲🇲 Is Myanmar’s junta losing the civil war?

• ➕ Plus: Tracking recessions through the publishing industry, how the papers are covering the weekend’s Serbian military movements near Kosovo, and… worst flight ever?

1. 🇲🇻 Maldives: Saturday’s run-off elections in the Maldives saw Mohamed Muizzu, the current mayor of the capital Male, elected the country’s next president. Muizzu had said the incumbent president allowed India to gain too much influence in the country.

2. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: Prosecutors have charged Gulnara Karimova, the daughter of Uzbekistan’s former president, with a range of financial crimes. Karimova, who served as her country’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, has been in an Uzbek jail since 2014.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: The Australian army will retire its fleet of Taipan helicopters after a training crash in July killed four soldiers. The army will replace the European Taipans with American-made Blackhawks.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: President Lula da Silva, aged 77, underwent hip surgery on Friday (29 September). Lula doesn’t expect to resume travel again until COP28 in Dubai, which kicks off in late November.

5. 🇸🇸 South Sudan: President Salva Kiir met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow late last week for discussions on topics including energy cooperation. Juba has oil reserves amounting to 3.5 billion barrels, though production has stalled in recent years.

Slovakia | Geopolitics

Slovakia dishes up another electoral surprise

NATO and EU member Slovakia (pop: 5.5 million) went to the polls on Saturday to choose the country’s fifth prime minister in four years, following years of fragile coalition governments.

And former leader Robert Fico’s populist Smer ('Direction') party out-performed polls, winning the most seats in parliament with 23% of votes.

What were the key election issues? At a domestic level, they included:

• 😤 Frustration with the previous quarrelling coalition

• 🏠 Living standards that still lag behind the rest of Europe

• 📈 A widening budget deficit and high inflation (10%)

• 🏥 A depleted health system, and

• 💸 A rising cost of living.

Fico’s winning party also ran on regional issues, including:

• ⛔ A vow to halt military aid to neighbouring Ukraine

• 🛑 A vow to curb irregular migration over Slovak territory, and

• 🇪🇺 Broader scepticism towards the EU.

Fico had also blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s invasion (a Putin line some Slovaks have embraced). And he just dropped an all-caps Facebook update (🇸🇰) labelling Ukraine as “ungrateful”.

So what happens now?

Fico needs to negotiate with smaller parties to cobble together a majority in the country's 150-seat parliament. The most likely outcome will see him become prime minister with a slim but functional 79 seat coalition.

But the second-placed Progressive Slovakia, which went from winning no seats in 2020 to scoring 17% in this weekend’s vote, hasn’t given up.

Intrigue's take: As ever, there’s nuance here. Philosophically, the gap between what folks told pollsters beforehand and what they then did on election day suggests many voters might’ve been motivated along personal lines (eg, a sense of aligning with traditional Slovak rather than EU values).

Practically, any immediate impact on Ukraine seems limited: Slovakia has already given much of what it could spare, including its entire fleet of MiG jets. And it's hard to see Fico ending his country's own lucrative contracts for the manufacture of artillery shells for Ukraine.

But longer term, Fico's return could complicate EU and NATO efforts at unity on Russia. Still, he's often taken a more pragmatic approach once in power, and the survival of yet another coalition government might demand more of that now.

Also worth noting:

• Slovakia has had a technocratic government since May, appointed by the country’s (largely ceremonial) president after the previous coalition collapsed.

• Slovakia’s president is currently suing Fico for “unwarranted accusations” against her, including that she was a US puppet.

• Fico stepped down as prime minister in 2018 amidst mass protests, following the murder of a journalist investigating corruption. Fico avoided corruption charges last year after lawmakers narrowly voted against stripping his immunity. He denied the charges.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Serbia’s military movements near Kosovo over the weekend

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🇲🇲 Myanmar | War

Is the tide of Myanmar’s war turning?

Opposition forces control around 60% of Myanmar’s territory, according to the acting leader of Myanmar’s government-in-exile, Duwa Lashi La.

Myanmar has been in a state of civil war since soon after the military toppled the country’s elected president Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. The junta has since used its superior firepower to retain control over major cities.

But beyond city limits, it’s been harder to get a clear picture. On the coup’s second anniversary in February, the junta admitted that more than a third of the country’s townships were no longer under full military control.

And an earlier independent report suggested the junta controlled only:

• 🗺️ 17% of total land area, and

• 🏘️ 22% of all townships.

Intrigue’s take: There are all kinds of reasons why battlefield reports out of Myanmar should be treated with caution. But the junta itself has seemed pretty surprised by the resistance, and there are ongoing claims of desertions, waning foreign support, and attacks closer to the capital.

But that’s not to suggest the opposition is in control; it’s hinted at some of its own challenges, including establishing a single chain of command across – and supplying – the hundreds of armed groups across the country.

Also worth noting:

• Two of the junta’s top generals were relieved of duty this week amid a corruption scandal.

• The UN human rights chief said last week that the junta uses airstrikes and village burnings to subjugate the population.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s funnier news:

• An Australian man who faked his own kidnapping has been ordered to compensate the police for their investigation, to the tune of $10,334.

• An airline has compensated a Kiwi couple who were stuck next to a flatulent dog in premium economy for a 13 hour flight.

• A Phillies fan and his five-foot long emotional support alligator have been denied entry to a baseball game in Philadelphia.

• A herd of hungry sheep have somehow eaten 100kg of medicinal marijuana in a Greek greenhouse.

• And astronaut Mark Rubio has returned to Earth after unintentionally breaking the US record for the most time in space.

🗳️ Poll time!

📊 Chart of the day

Nothing sells like bad news. So maybe it’s not so surprising that the word ‘recession’ spiked in the years following several major economic downturns in the 1980s, 1990s, and after the 2008 financial crisis.

Thursday’s poll: What's some intriguing music from around the world we should check out?

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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ (write in!) (8%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ B.B: “Touareg blues just hits you hard with the hendrixian guitars in the desert singing the sounds of exile and nomad wanderings. Tinariwen is an excellent entry point but it’s a slippery slope from there – you’ll be checking the likes of Bombino and Tamikrest in no time!”

• Honourable mentions: Caetano Veloso, Ali Farka Toure, Jaro Local, Baby's Berserk, Bloodywood, Juana Molina, and late 60s to 70s Brazilian music (e.g. Caetano Veloso, Jorge Ben, Gal Costa, Gilberto Gil, Bola Sete).