🌍 Sudan ceasefires collapse as fighting intensifies

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: The UN is preparing to end its humanitarian operations in Afghanistan in May if the Taliban continues to bar women from working for the organisation. Around 28 million Afghans are in need of humanitarian assistance.

2. 🇮🇸 Iceland: For the first time, Iceland has authorised the US to refuel nuclear submarines off Iceland’s coast. Iceland has been part of NATO since 1949 and is the only member without a standing army.

3. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Dhaka will repay a $318M Russian loan in Chinese yuan instead of the US dollar. The loan (for a new nuclear power plant) had gone unpaid for over a year due to Russia’s ban from the SWIFT money transfer system.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: A court has ruled against the government’s plan to transfer its new National Guard from civilian to military control. Mexico’s president (‘AMLO’) had argued that military control would limit corruption.

5. 🇱🇧 Lebanon: Parliament agreed to delay municipal elections for the second time over concerns it lacked the necessary funding to support voting. Local elections were originally scheduled to take place last May.

🇸🇩 SUDAN | CONFLICT

Fighting in Sudan blasts through shaky ceasefires

Briefly: A third attempted ceasefire in Sudan crumbled last night (Wednesday), as the warring Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused one another of breaching the US-brokered truces.

Who’s gaining the upper hand?

• The military now controls access to Khartoum, cutting off RSF units inside

• It repelled RSF attacks on its HQ yesterday, and retook a key airbase

• It’s now bombarding the suburb where RSF chief ‘Hemedti’ owns homes

• And the RSF is appealing for international help

On balance, the above suggests things aren’t going well for the RSF, which is similar in size to the military (100,000 soldiers) but lacks heavy arms and intel.

In parallel, a joint statement by 14 embassies in Khartoum (one of Africa’s largest cities) said more than 270 civilians had died, with food and medical supplies dwindling. And the impacts are becoming regional and global:

• Thousands of civilians have crossed into neighbouring Chad

• An EU rep has been shot, a US convoy attacked, and aid workers killed

• Germany and Japan are struggling to evacuate their citizens, and

• Egypt is now aiding Sudan’s military, while a Libyan group is helping the RSF

Intrigue’s take: It seems unlikely either faction can ‘win’ outright at this point. And even if one side managed to vanquish the other, it wouldn’t be able to rule Africa’s third largest country alone. Both factions lack a political base, and have lost legitimacy after their joint 2021 coup plus the current unfolding catastrophe.

So some kind of stalemate is most likely. And that might explain why the US is preparing a sanctions package against both factions (pressuring them to negotiate), while African leaders are preparing a visit to mediate.

Also worth noting:

• While Hemedti accused the military of breaching international law this week, he was himself once accused by the ICC of “indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks against civilians” in Darfur.

• Russian mercenary outfit Wagner has issued a statement denying any involvement in Sudan, following various reports to the contrary.

• The neighbouring country of South Sudan exports most of its oil through Sudan, which is a key regional oil hub.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Margaritaville

🇪🇺 EU | TECHNOLOGY

The EU joins the chip-making arms race

Briefly: The European Union reached agreement on a €43B (US$47 billion) semiconductor subsidy package on Tuesday. The plan aims to double the EU’s current 10% share of the global chip market by 2030.

If it seems everyone’s suddenly racing to bring chip manufacturing home, it’s because they are. The humble chip is now arguably the world’s most important product:

1. 📈 It’s already a $600B market, set to top a trillion dollars by 2030

2. 🌎 It’s the world’s most traded good

3. 📡 It’s key to several sectors like auto, telco, cleantech and defence

4. 😬 And having too much of the chip supply chain beyond your reach can leave you vulnerable in the event of a pandemic or war

Intrigue’s take: The EU already has real semiconductor strengths. And $47B is certainly a lot of dough. But to put it in perspective: a single firm (Samsung) just announced a $230B chips investment in South Korea.

So sure, maybe Europe’s new Chips Act will help reduce its dependence on foreign chips. But the way things are headed, the EU might be lucky just to hold its current 10% market share.

Also worth noting:

• Taiwan manufactures around 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips.

• One analyst argues that since chip investment is being driven by geopolitics rather than economics, the resulting excess production could trigger a slump in the sector.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what we’re reading about ‘de-dollarisation.’

• The greenback might now account for less than half of global reserves

• The dollar rules the world, now and for the foreseeable future ($)

• De-dollarization has begun

• ‘Essentially impossible' for Chinese yuan to overtake US dollar

📜 THIS DAY IN HISTORY

On this day in 2010…

… the oil drilling rig Deepwater Horizon exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the largest oil spill in history. Over 4 million barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf over the ensuing three months.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think China will hit its growth goals this year?

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 💥 Yes, that 5% growth target is getting smashed (34%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤏 Yep, they'll just get there (42%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👎 Nope, not even close (17%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖊️ Other (write in!) (6%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 M.B: “They will claim 5% growth at the end of the year but real growth won't be anywhere near there. Any stat they put out that is not checked independently should be taken with a massive grain of salt.”