🌍 Thailand’s opposition wins the elections

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇨🇳 China: Authorities will soon launch a series of pilot projects aimed at increasing China’s birth-rate. Last year, China’s population shrank for the first time in 60 years.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has denied reports he offered to leak Russia’s troop positions to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s retreat from the town of Bakhmut. He’s blamed Russia’s military brass for the mercenary group’s heavy losses in Bakhmut.

3. 🇰🇭 Cambodia: Local authorities have disqualified Cambodia’s sole remaining opposition party from running in July’s election. Maybe Prime Minister Hun Sen wasn’t exaggerating when he said his party would dominate Cambodia’s politics for up to 100 years.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: Brazil’s top court has ordered a police investigation into Google and Telegram after the two tech companies lobbied against a controversial ‘fake news’ bill. Supporters of the bill say it’ll help curb disinformation online, whereas critics say it’ll curtail freedom of speech.

5. 🇲🇦 Morocco: European tomato producers are raising concerns about the rapid rise of Moroccan tomato exports to Europe, which have nearly doubled since 2021. Morocco is the third-largest tomato exporter in the world.

🇹🇭 THAILAND | POLITICS

Thailand is (probably) getting a new leader

Briefly: Several pro-democracy parties are now working to form a coalition government after trouncing military-backed parties in Thailand’s elections on Sunday. Turnout hit a record high, with over 75% of eligible voters participating.

In theory, the front-runner to emerge as prime minister is Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year old Harvard alum and former tech exec. His upstart Move Forward party won the most seats, so he’s teaming up with smaller parties to try and unseat the military-backed government that came to power after a 2014 coup.

But here’s the catch: even with a coalition, Pita is still about 66 seats short of the full parliamentary majority that’d ensure he becomes prime minister.

And here’s the bigger catch: Thailand’s senate, appointed by the military junta, is unlikely to back a candidate like Pita calling for an end to military rule. And smaller parties in the lower house seem wary of Pita’s outspoken stance on the Thai monarchy. So it’s hard to see where Pita can get those final 66 votes from.

Intrigue’s take: The junta has now baked so many contradictions into Thailand’s political system: it wants democracy without losing control; civilian rule without civilians. But after Sunday’s thumping, it’ll have to choose one or the other.

And Thailand’s military doesn’t exactly have a history of choosing democracy.

Yet the Thai people don’t exactly have a history of ceding their democracy easily.

Also worth noting:

• Pita’s Move Forward party campaigned to reform strict laws that ban criticism of the Thai monarchy (punishable by up to 15 years in prison).

• A Thai court dissolved Move Forward’s predecessor party in 2020 over alleged campaign finance violations, leading to large protests.

• In a news conference on Monday, Pita said there’d be “a hefty price to pay for someone who’s thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government.”

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Holi

🇦🇷 ARGENTINA | ECONOMY

Argentina takes drastic measures to stabilise peso

Briefly: Argentina jacked interest rates from 91% to 97% yesterday (Monday) to tame inflation and avoid a currency crash before October’s presidential elections.

It’s now going through its worst economic crisis in decades:

• 📈 Inflation is above 108%

• 📉 The peso has lost 35% of its value against the dollar this year, and

• 🐌 Its GDP is set to grow by just 0.2% this year, according to the IMF

In sum, the country’s economic Aires aren’t exactly Buenos right now. And that’s making life pretty tough for Argentina’s 46 million people.

Intrigue’s take: Hiking interest rates by 600 basis points isn’t typically part of most re-election campaigns, but Argentina doesn’t have many options. The IMF is already disbursing a $44B bailout it previously agreed with Argentina, and China has already entered into a currency swap.

So if these new sky-high interest rates don’t cool off the country’s red-hot inflation, it’s hard to see what else will.

Also worth noting:

• The 97% interest rate in Argentina compares with 6.5% in India, 5.25% in the US, and 3.75% in Europe.

• Libertarian and outsider presidential candidate Javier Milei is leading in some polls. He’s campaigning to curtail state intervention in Argentina’s economy and replace the peso with the US dollar.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• Anti-crime tourists are getting arrested in El Salvador ($)

• Ghana’s economy is a cautionary tale

• Is Chinese power about to peak? ($)

• Armenia-Azerbaijan peace could undermine Russian influence

• Why Australia and India’s relations are flourishing (this story is free for Intriguers; or use this link to access all of World Politics Review for just $1!)

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

We asked Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, to describe what a US debt default would mean for the global economy. His answer: “catastrophe.” Check out the full interview on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.

🎙️ Catch our co-founder John Fowler with fellow ex-diplomat Dmitry Grozoubinski exploring whether we still need embassies, in the latest episode of the Intrigue Explained podcast!

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Who was your favourite act at this year's Eurovision?

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇸🇪 Sweden (7%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇫🇮 Finland (11%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇱 Israel (6%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇹 Italy (3%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇳🇴 Norway (6%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Other (write in!) (9%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 😴 I didn't tune in (58%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ J.B: “Australia was my favourite this year!”

• 😴 N: “What's Eurovision?”