🌍 The costs of Brazil’s agricultural development

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇦🇲 Armenia: Turkey closed its airspace to flights from Armenia in response to the unveiling of a statue in Yerevan. The new statue commemorates a plot to kill the perpetrators of the Armenian genocide.

2. 🇳🇴 Norway: Norwegian oil and gas companies are reviving plans to drill in the Arctic Sea to ease Europe’s energy woes. Norway is now Europe’s top source of natural gas.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Australian exports to China hit record highs in March as tensions between the two countries slowly thaw. In recent months, China ended an unofficial ban on Australian coal while Canberra agreed to drop a WTO complaint on Chinese barley tariffs.

4. 🇺🇸 US: The Federal Reserve raised its interest rates to the highest level in 16 years on Wednesday. It’s the 10th consecutive interest rate hike in 14 months as the US works to contain inflation.

5. 🇮🇷 Iran: Iranian authorities seized yet another oil tanker on Wednesday, the second in the space of a week. Local press reports claim the Greek-owned ship, traveling from Dubai to the nearby port of Fujairah, was seized following a judicial order in Iran.

🌾 BRAZIL | SUPPLY CHAINS

A US food giant in Brazil faces scrutiny

Briefly: Cargill, the world’s largest grain trader and the biggest privately-held US company, is facing a legal complaint in the US for failing to remove deforestation from its supply chain in Brazil.

Brazil is a key link in the global food supply chain: it ranks first for exports of sugar, poultry, beef, and soybeans (used to feed livestock everywhere). So basically, if you’ve ever eaten anything, chances are you have Brazil to thank for it.

But it may come at a cost: during Bolsonaro’s presidency in Brazil, the Amazon lost an area larger than Denmark (mostly for crops, cattle and logging).

Intrigue’s take: A few interesting angles here. First, Cargill is massive, so the decisions taken in its Minnesota boardroom have global impacts. Eg:

• It employs over 155,000 folks in 70 countries

• It’s the largest poultry producer in Thailand, and

• It handles pretty much all the eggs used in US McDonald's restaurants

Second, despite doing $165B in annual revenue, Cargill is actually family-owned. So it’s often avoided the blowtorch of public scrutiny that listed firms can face.

And third, it’s not facing a court case, but a process of the Paris-based OECD (a rich nation club). So US officials are the decision-makers, with power to mediate.

So all in all, you can see why big-wigs everywhere will be watching with interest.

Also worth noting:

• Cargill has previously pledged to ensure its soy from the Amazon is deforestation-free by 2025, and to eradicate deforestation across its entire supply chain by 2030.

• Negotiations to deliver an historic trade deal between the EU and Mercosur, a South American trade block, have stalled over Brussels’ demands for more concrete anti-deforestation efforts from Brasília.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Arcadia

🇷🇺 RUSSIA | DEFENCE & SECURITY

An alleged “drone attack” in Moscow

Briefly: Ukrainian President Zelensky has denied his country’s role in an alleged drone attack on the Kremlin early on Wednesday. For its part, Russia has claimed it was an assassination attempt against President Putin.

From pipeline explosions to intelligence leaks, we Intriguers have navigated our fair share of these international whodunnits. And in this instance, it’s hard to see how such a tiny explosion was part of any assassination attempt.

So, here are the main theories:

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine: a “performative strike” aimed at rattling or humiliating Moscow. Ukraine has used drones to strike targets close to Moscow before, but it usually claims (or hints at) responsibility. Not this time.

• ✊ Russian partisans: perhaps a similar motive. But as with the theory above, it’d be surprising for drones to breach a Kremlin protected by various layers of air defence, GPS spoofing and anti-drone rifles.

• 🇷🇺 Russia: a classic ‘false flag’ to justify further mobilisation in Russia. This would fit some of the curious details around the incident, but surely Moscow could’ve cooked up something less embarrassing to itself.

Intrigue’s take: Geopolitics is full of moments where we just have to say, “we don’t know”. This is one of those moments.

So it’s worth looking beyond the ‘who’ and the ‘why’, and focusing on any common thread across the theories. And we’d argue there’s one such thread: each theory reflects some kind of Russian weakness.

Also worth noting:

• A German teen once managed to land a small plane near the Kremlin. The defence minister ended up losing his job as a result.

• Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas in recent weeks.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Enjoy a spy-themed crossword from our puzzle master and co-founder, Helen!

• Agent

• Bagman

• FBI

• KGB

• Ghoul

• Espionage

• Dry Clean

📜 THIS DAY IN HISTORY

On this day in 1862, Mexican forces defeated the French at the Battle of Puebla during the Second Franco-Mexican War. France ultimately went on to win the war and establish a short-lived Mexican Empire led by an Austrian King. But the date (Cinco de Mayo) has become a colourful celebration of all things Mexico, particularly in the United States.

🗳️ QUIZ TIME!

What’s better than a small end-of-week quiz to whet your appetite?

Answers: 1-a, 2-a (Kibbeh, a meat-filled croquette), 3-c.